European Union economic growth and the age structure of the population
2009 (English)In: Economic Change and Restructuring, ISSN 1573-9414, E-ISSN 1574-0277, Vol. 42, no 3, 159-187 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
We test the robustness of correlations between age structure and eco- nomic growth in EU15 countries by replicating a previous OECD study. A hump- shaped relation with the age structure is confirmed where increases in the dependent age group shares are associated with decreasing GDP growth rates. In addition we confirm that the peak of the hump is in the upper part of the working age population. Models estimated on data up to 1990 agree quite well when data for 15 more years are added. Sensitivity tests, instrumented regressions and addition of control vari- ables do not change this conclusion. Thus, the age profile of correlations between age and economic growth is robust over time. This motivates a prospective analysis of future effects ageing will have on EU growth. The basic conclusion from this exercise is that ageing will be accompanied by stagnation in GDP growth, but at rather different time horizons.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2009. Vol. 42, no 3, 159-187 p.
Demography and growth Ageing populations Europe
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-36002DOI: 10.1007/s10644-008-9057-1OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-36002DiVA: diva2:288510