Monthly, seasonal and annual temperature reconstructions for Central Europe derived from documentary evidence and instrumental records since AD 1500
2010 (English)In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 101, no 1-2, 69-107 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Monthly temperature series for Central Europe back to AD 1500 aredeveloped from documentary index series from Germany, Switzerland and theCzech Republic (1500–1854) and 11 instrumental temperature records (1760–2007).Documentary evidence from the Low Countries, the Carpathian Basin and Polandare used for cross-checking for earlier centuries. The instrumental station recordsare corrected for inhomogeneities, including insufficient radiation protection ofearly thermometers and the urban heat island effect. For overlapping period (1760–1854), the documentary data series correlate with instrumental temperatures, moststrongly in winter (86% explained variance in January) and least in autumn (56%in September). For annual average temperatures, 81% of the variance is explained.Verification statistics indicate high reconstruction skill for most months and seasons.The last 20 years (since 1988) stand out as very likely the warmest 20-year period,accounting for the calibration uncertainty and decreases in proxy data quality beforethe calibration period. The new reconstruction displays a previously unobserved long-term decrease in DJF, MAM and JJA temperature variability over last fivecenturies. Compiled monthly, seasonal and annual series can be used to improve therobustness of gridded large-scale European temperature reconstructions and possibleimpact studies. Further improvement of the reconstruction would be achieved ifdocumentary data from other European countries are further developed.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Netherlands: Springer , 2010. Vol. 101, no 1-2, 69-107 p.
Research subject Physical Geography
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-40477DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9724-xISI: 000278401200004OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-40477DiVA: diva2:324123
ProjectsEU project Millennium