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Långsiktiga prognoser av platsbehovet på fängelser: Long-term forecasting of prison populations
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Criminology.
2010 (Swedish)In: Nordisk Tidsskrift for Kriminalvidenskab, ISSN 0029-1528, Vol. 97, no 2, 132-149 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The article discusses whether it is possible to make reliable predictions of prison populations five to ten years in advance. This period corresponds approximately to the planning period that the Swedish Prison and Probation Service considers necessary for building new prisons. After a brief description of forecasting and its various methods, three quantitative forecasting methods are discussed: trend projections, extrapolations from causal models, and statistical modelling. Swedish and international prison population data (comprising years between 1961 and 2010) are used as illustrations. It is concluded that accurate long-term forecasts are unlikely, since prison population data tend to show strong random walk patterns.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2010. Vol. 97, no 2, 132-149 p.
Keyword [en]
prison, prison population, forecasting
Keyword [sv]
fängelse, fängelsebeläggning, prognos
National Category
Law and Society
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-41675OAI: diva2:332106
Available from: 2010-08-02 Created: 2010-08-02 Last updated: 2011-01-20Bibliographically approved

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von Hofer, Hanns
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