One Business Cycle and One Trend from (Many,) Many Disaggregates
1993 (English)Report (Other academic)
Typical analyses of trends and cycles take as given some (one) observable economic variable in whose time path a researcher wishes to find trend and cyclical movements. But individual sectors and regions in aggregate economies move neither perfectly with nor independently of each other - why is their aggregate useful to study? Using a model for non-stationary, dynamically evolving distributions, this paper provides evidence that in the US, regional movements that preserve their aggregate time parth nevertheless hvae important, predictive comovements with aggregate GNP. Such predictive content cannot be understood in traditional macro models that seek the source for business cycles in aggregate productivity or monetary shocks.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: IIES , 1993. , 15 p.
Seminar Paper / Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University, ISSN 0347-8769 ; 550
business cycle, growth, distribution dynamics, economic fluctuation, geographical region, large cross section, stochastic kernel
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-41870OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-41870DiVA: diva2:338070
Published in connection with a visit at the IIES.2010-08-102010-08-102010-08-10