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Uncertainty, Climate Change and the Global Economy
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
2008 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The paper illustrates how one may assess our comprehensive uncertainty about the various relations in the entire chain from human activity to climate change. Using a modified version of the RICE model of the global economy and climate, we perform Monte Carlo simulations, where full sets of parameters in the model’s most important equations are drawn randomly from pre-specified distributions, and present results in the forms of fan charts and histograms. Our results suggest that under a Business-As-usual scenario, the median increase of global mean temperature in 2105 relative to 1900 will be around 4.5ºC. The 99 percent confidence interval ranges from 3.0 ºC to 6.9 ºC. Uncertainty about socio-economic drivers of climate change lie behind a non-trivial part of this uncertainty about global warming.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: IIES , 2008. , 28 p.
Series
Seminar Paper / Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University. (Online), ISSN 1653-610X ; 757
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-42271OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-42271DiVA: diva2:344702
Available from: 2010-08-24 Created: 2010-08-20 Last updated: 2010-08-24Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf