Scenario Analysis on Protein Consumption and Climate Change Effects on Riverine N Export to the Baltic Sea
2010 (English)In: Environmental Science and Technology, ISSN 0013-936X, E-ISSN 1520-5851, Vol. 44, no 7, 2379-2385 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
This paper evaluates possible future nitrogen loadings from 105 catchments surrounding the Baltic Sea. Multiple regressions are used to model total nitrogen (TN) flux as a function of specific runoff (0), atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and primary emissions (PE) from humans and livestock. On average cattle contributed with 63%, humans with 20%, and pigs with 17% of the total nitrogen PE to land. Compared to the reference period (1992-1996) we then evaluated two types of scenarios for year 2070. i) An increased protein consumption scenario that led to 16% to 39% increased mean TN flux (kg per km(-2)). ii) Four climate scenarios addressing effects of changes in river discharge. These scenarios showed increased mean TN flux from the northern catchments draining into the Gulf of Bothnia (34%) and the Gulfs of Finland and Riga (14%), while the mean TN flux decreased (-27%) for catchments draining to the Baltic Proper. However, the net effect of the scenarios showed a possible increase in TN flux ranging from 3-72%. Overall an increased demand for animal protein will be instrumental for the Baltic Sea ecosystem and may be a major holdback to fulfill the environmental goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2010. Vol. 44, no 7, 2379-2385 p.
NORTH-ATLANTIC OCEAN; NITROGEN BUDGETS; DRAINAGE-BASIN; AGRICULTURE; FUTURE; LOADS; EUTROPHICATION; TRANSPORT; FLUXES; MODEL
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-49499DOI: 10.1021/es902632pISI: 000275993700026OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-49499DiVA: diva2:377740
authorCount :52010-12-142010-12-142010-12-21Bibliographically approved