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Decision Evaluation of Response Strategies in Emergency Management using Imprecise Assessments
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
2010 (English)In: Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, Vol. 7, no 1, 53- p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper focuses on decision evaluation of different response strategies in emergency management utilizing decision analysis with imprecise information. A method for the selection of response strategies in emergency management as well as a model for the representation of catastrophic consequences are proposed. In emergency management decision problems, the available estimates of probabilities, utilities, costs, and priority weights are often subject to large degrees of uncertainty and imprecision. When uncertainty prevails in the input data and large societal values are at stake, coping with this lack of precision becomes very important in decision making processes. The method employs representation of imprecision in probabilities, utilities, and weights on attributes in the form of interval statements and comparisons together with a formal, comprehensive, and comprehensible description of a catastrophic consequence facilitating the use of preferential statements between catastrophic consequences. The method proposed can be viewed as a more frugal decision analysis method, decreasing the efforts needed in elicitation of input statements which often is a cumbersome threshold for the use of decision analysis techniques. It is suggested as a complement to cost/benefit approaches and other approaches relying on inaccessible probabilistic data either when probability assessments regarding catastrophic events are too uncertain, or when pure monetary scales are deemed inadequate.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2010. Vol. 7, no 1, 53- p.
Keyword [en]
Emergency management, decision analysis
National Category
Information Science
Research subject
Computer and Systems Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-51879DOI: 10.2202/1547-7355.1646OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-51879DiVA: diva2:386346
Available from: 2011-01-12 Created: 2011-01-12 Last updated: 2011-04-04Bibliographically approved

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Publisher's full texthttp://www.bepress.com/jhsem/vol7/iss1/53/

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