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Judgment Analysis in the Medical Domain: Making a Fair Comparison Between Logistic Regression and Fast & Frugal Models
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology.
Center for Family and Community Medicine, Karolinska Institutet.
Center for Family and Community Medicine, Karolinska Institutet.
Center for Family and Community Medicine, Karolinska Institutet.
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(English)Article in journal (Refereed) Submitted
Abstract [en]

Using participant data from the medical domain, the robustness of logistic regression (LR) with different cue inclusion levels and two fast and frugal (F&F) models in terms of predictive accuracy and frugality were tested. Two data sets based on judgments of verbally described patients were used: Heart failure (66 analysts), and Hyperlipidemia (38 analysts). In both data sets, when the models were cross-validated, there was a significant decrease in predictive accuracy for all models, especially when all cues were used in LR. The other models had about equal predictive accuracy, also when comparisons were made with actual diagnoses, with a slight advantage for LR in the Heart failure study. LR using the 5% inclusion level was more frugal than F&F. These results emphasize the importance of using cross-validation and of choosing the proper significance levels for cue inclusion and when comparing different judgment models.

Keyword [en]
Logistic regression, fast and frugal, cross-validation, fit, prediction, frugality
National Category
Psychology (excluding Applied Psychology)
Research subject
Psychology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-57071OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-57071DiVA: diva2:414262
Available from: 2011-05-02 Created: 2011-05-02 Last updated: 2011-05-09Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Decision Strategies: Something Old, Something New, and Something Borrowed
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Decision Strategies: Something Old, Something New, and Something Borrowed
2011 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

In this thesis, some old decision strategies are investigated and a new one that furthers our understanding of how decisions are made is introduced. Three studies are presented. In Study I and II, strategies are investigated in terms of inferences and in Study III, strategies are investigated in terms of preferences. Inferences refer to decisions regarding facts, e.g., whether a patient has a heart disease or not. Preferences refer to decision makers’ personal preferences between different choice alternatives, e.g., which flat out of many to choose. In all three studies, both non-compensatory strategies and compensatory strategies were investigated. In compensatory strategies, a high value in one attribute cannot compensate for a low value in another, while in non-compensatory strategies such compensation is possible. Results from Study I showed that both compensatory (logistic regression) and non-compensatory (fast and frugal) strategies make inferences equally well, but logistic regression strategies are more frugal (i.e., use fewer cues) than the fast and frugal strategies. Study II showed that the results were independent of the degree of expertise. The good inferential ability of both non-compensatory and compensatory strategies suggests there might be room for a strategy that can combine the strengths of the two. Study III introduces such a strategy, the Concordant-ranks (CR) strategy. Results from Study III showed that choices and attractiveness evaluations followed this new strategy. This strategy dictates a choice of an alternative with concordant ranks between attribute values and attribute weights when alternatives are about equally attractive. CR also serves as a proxy for finding the alternative with the shortest distance to an ideal. The CR strategy combines the computational simplicity of non-compensatory strategies with the superior information integration ability of compensatory strategies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Psychology, Stockholms University, 2011. 80 p.
Keyword
Decision strategies, inference, preference, compensatory, non-compensatory
National Category
Psychology
Research subject
Psychology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-57174 (URN)978-91-7447-294-3 (ISBN)
Public defence
2011-06-03, David Magnussonsalen (U31), hus 8, Frescati Hagväg 8, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note
At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 1: Submitted. Paper 2: Submitted.Available from: 2011-05-12 Created: 2011-05-03 Last updated: 2011-05-09Bibliographically approved

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