Change search
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Bimodal epidemic size distributions for near-critical SIR with vaccination
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.
2008 (English)In: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, ISSN 0092-8240, E-ISSN 1522-9602, Vol. 70, no 2, 589-602 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We introduce a recursive algorithm which enables the computation of the distribution of epidemic size in a stochastic SIR model for very large population sizes. In the important parameter region where the model is just slightly supercritical, the distribution of epidemic size is decidedly bimodal. We find close agreement between the distribution for large populations and the limiting case where the distribution is that of the time a Brownian motion hits a quadratic curve. The model includes the possibility of vaccination during the epidemic. The effects of the parameters, including vaccination level, on the form of the epidemic size distribution are explored.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2008. Vol. 70, no 2, 589-602 p.
Keyword [en]
stochastic SIR, final size distribution, vaccination, bimodal distribution
National Category
Natural Sciences Mathematics
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-59154DOI: 10.1007/s11538-007-9269-yISI: 000252481900012OAI: diva2:425525
authorCount :4Available from: 2011-06-21 Created: 2011-06-21 Last updated: 2011-06-21Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full text

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Martin-Löf, Anders
By organisation
Department of Mathematics
In the same journal
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
Natural SciencesMathematics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Altmetric score

Total: 16 hits
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link