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Unemployment as an unintended consequence of social assistance recipiency: Results from a time-series analysis of aggregated population data
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, The Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI).
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, The Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI).
2009 (English)In: Sociologisk forskning, ISSN 0038-0342, no 4, 29-45 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Unemployment as an unintended consequence of social assistance recipiency: Results from a time-series analysis of aggregated population data Does the frequency of unemployment have a tendency to increase the number of social assistance recipients, or does the relationship work the other way around? This article Utilizes Swedish annual data on aggregated unemployment and means-tested social assistance recipiency in the period 1946-1990 and proposes a multiple time-series approach based on vector error-correction modelling to establish the direction of influence. First, we show that rates of unemployment and receipt of social assistance is co-integrated. Second, we demonstrate that adjustments to the long-run equilibrium are made through adjustments of the unemployment. This indicates that the level of unemployment reacts to changes in rates of social assistance recipiency rather than vice versa. It is also shown that lagged changes in the level of unemployment do not predict changes in rates of social assistance recipients in short-term. Together these findings demonstrate that the number of social assistance recipients does increase the number of unemployed in a period characterized by low unemployment and high employment.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2009. no 4, 29-45 p.
Keyword [en]
multiple time-series analysis, social assistance, spillover effects, Sweden, unemployment
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-59384ISI: 000273197200003OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-59384DiVA: diva2:429432
Note
authorCount :2Available from: 2011-07-04 Created: 2011-06-27 Last updated: 2017-12-11Bibliographically approved

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