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Supporting Dynamic Decision Making in Naval Search and Evasion Tasks
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
2011 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis investigates a decision aid to support tasks where there is an initial sighting of an object and then the decision maker has to guide some vehicles, either to reestablish contact with the lost object or to stay clear of it. As such, the tasks are analogous to naval search and evasion tasks. The decision aid helps a user to keep track of where enemy units can be by visualizing constraints on the units’ movement. Six studies are included. The first investigates how commanders judge the threat in a tactical situation and what they do to control that threat. The results point to that analysis of the enemy is a difficult task and has the potential to be improved by a support system. The second study investigates how commanders analyze the enemy. The results suggest that the uncertainties regarding the location and behavior of the enemy are central problems for the commander. It further describes a strategy that the participants use to cope with those problems, and the strategy is used as basis for the proposed decision aid. The remaining studies are experiments in which the support system is evaluated. A search task and an evasion task are used, and participants with and without experience from the tasks participate. The results suggest that the decision aid increased performance in both tasks and that both university students and navy officers gained from using it. Further, when using the visualization novice participants performed on the same level as the experienced. It was easy to learn how to use the visualization, and transfer to a situation without it depended on the complexity of its outline. The findings have practical application for designers of command and control support systems as they indirectly suggest that people have problems in inferring the whereabouts of contacts of which they only have fragmentary information. Thus, including the proposed decision aid in the design of such systems may have positive impact on overall system performance.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University , 2011. , 71 p.
Series
Report Series / Department of Computer & Systems Sciences, ISSN 1101-8526 ; 11-010
Keyword [en]
Decision support, visualization, dynamic decision-making, naval warfare, expanding search area, field of safe travel, search task, evasion task, ecological interface, anti-submarine warfare, constraints, flaming datum
National Category
Social Sciences
Research subject
Computer and Systems Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-62814ISBN: 978-91-7447-352-0 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-62814DiVA: diva2:444939
Public defence
2011-11-11, lecture room 401, Forum, Isafjordsgatan 39, Kista, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2011-10-20 Created: 2011-09-30 Last updated: 2011-10-20Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. A Microworld Study of Task Force Commanders Executing a Maritime Escort Mission
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Microworld Study of Task Force Commanders Executing a Maritime Escort Mission
2010 (English)In: Proceedings of the 15th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, 2010Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
National Category
Social Sciences
Research subject
Computer and Systems Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-62787 (URN)
Conference
Santa Monica, California, June 22-24, 2010
Available from: 2011-09-29 Created: 2011-09-29 Last updated: 2011-10-04Bibliographically approved
2. Visualizing a Time-Space Constraint Increases Performance in a Dynamic Search Task
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Visualizing a Time-Space Constraint Increases Performance in a Dynamic Search Task
2010 (English)In: Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making, ISSN 1555-3434, Vol. 4, no 4, 275-287 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article presents a display manipulation designed to support search tasks in which the location of the target is unknown and changes over time. The problem is analogous to that of a naval search task when there is an initial sighting and then the naval force must guide its search vehicles to reestablish contact with the fleeing target. The display manipulation visualizes a dynamic constraint on the area where a fleeing target can be found and adjusts its shape to the environment and to the search efforts. Forty participants without prior knowledge of search tactics completed 12 trials in an experiment that compared performance with and without the visualization aid and controlled for learning effects. The results suggest that this visualization improves performance in the dynamic search task. They further suggest that the visualization was easy to learn but that the learning effect did not transfer to a condition without visualization. The results have practical utility for both military and civil search tasks, and they are consistent with other research that emphasizes that control interfaces should make constraints in the task environment perceptually available.

National Category
Social Sciences
Research subject
Computer and Systems Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-62788 (URN)
Available from: 2011-09-29 Created: 2011-09-29 Last updated: 2011-10-04Bibliographically approved
3. Constraint Visualization Decreases Search Time for Novices and Navy Officers in a Naval Search Task
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Constraint Visualization Decreases Search Time for Novices and Navy Officers in a Naval Search Task
2011 (English)In: Proceedings of the 10th Conference on Naturalistic Decision Making, 2011Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
National Category
Social Sciences
Research subject
Computer and Systems Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-62789 (URN)
Conference
Orlando, Florida, May 31 - June 3, 2011
Available from: 2011-09-29 Created: 2011-09-29 Last updated: 2011-10-04Bibliographically approved
4. Visualizing the Field of Safe Travel Increases Performance in a Naval Movement Task
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Visualizing the Field of Safe Travel Increases Performance in a Naval Movement Task
2011 (English)In: Proceedings of IEEE International Multi-Disciplinary Conference on Cognitive Methods in Situation Awareness and Decision Support (CogSIMA), 2011, 252-256 p.Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This paper investigates a display manipulation designed to support movement tasks where the location of a threat is uncertain and dynamic. The problem is analogous to that of a naval transportation task, where a ship has to move from one port to another under threat from several enemies of which only the initial positions are known. The display manipulation visualizes a time-dependent constraint on the area where an enemy can be, given its initial position and maximum speed, and adjusts the shape to the environment. The region outside this area represents a field of safe travel where the transport ship can move safely. Forty participants without prior knowledge of the task completed sixteen trials in an experiment that contrasted with and without visualization, and controlled for learning effects. The results suggest that the visualization significantly improved performance in the movement task and that it had a large effect. The visualization also significantly reduced variance in performance, which suggests that it generated a more consistent behavior among participants. It was also easy for the participants to make effective use of the visualization, and once exposed to the visualization, the learning transferred to a condition without the visualization. This study have practical utility for designers of combat information systems as the results indirectly suggest that people have difficulties in inferring the locations of targets of which they only have fragmentary information. Including similar visualizations in the design may consequently increase overall system performance.

National Category
Social Sciences
Research subject
Computer and Systems Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-62790 (URN)10.1109/COGSIMA.2011.5753454 (DOI)978-1-61284-785-6 (ISBN)
Conference
Miami Beach, Florida, USA, 22 Feb - 24 Feb 2011
Available from: 2011-09-29 Created: 2011-09-29 Last updated: 2011-10-04Bibliographically approved
5. Threat and Control in Military Decision Making
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Threat and Control in Military Decision Making
2009 (English)In: Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, 2009Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a model of how military commanders estimate the threat posed by the enemy in a tactical situa- tion and how they use own forces to control that threat. The model is based on interviews with nine commanders from the Swedish navy and the purpose is to find automatic and adequate methods for reasoning about strategic issues based on the long-time experience of highly qualified military officers. The results show that the number of enemy units, the types of enemy units, the behavior of the enemy units, and the uncertainties regarding the number, types, and behavior determines the threat in a tactical situation. The own course of action works as a threat altering function to control that threat. When the commander should decide on a course of action, we suggest that it should be selected so it minimizes the expected threat.

Keyword
Military decision making, threat, worst case, expected value, imprecise probabilities
National Category
Social Sciences
Research subject
Computer and Systems Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-35397 (URN)
Conference
Durham, United Kingdom, 14 - 18 July 2009
Available from: 2010-01-18 Created: 2010-01-18 Last updated: 2011-10-04Bibliographically approved

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Citation style
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