Transient scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea Region during the 21st century
2011 (English)Report (Refereed)
The combined future impacts of climate change and industrial and agricultural practices in the Baltic Sea catchment on the Baltic Sea ecosystem were assessed. For this purpose 16 transient simulations for 1961-2099 using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea have been performed. Four climate scenarios were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). In this study we focussed on annual and seasonal mean changes of ecological quality indicators describing the environmental status of the Baltic Sea. In correspondence with earlier studies we found that the impact of changing climate on the Baltic biogeo-chemistry might be signi cant. Assuming reference loadings the water quality in all climate scenarios is reduced at the end of the century. The impact of nutrient load reductions according to the BSAP will be less e ective in future climate compared to present climate.However, the results of the pessimistic business-as-usual scenario suggest that policy makers should act to avoid much worse environ-mental conditions than today.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Norrköping: SMHI , 2011. , 81 p.
, SMHI Oceanografi, ISSN 0283-7714 ; 108
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-67440OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-67440DiVA: diva2:470296