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Transient modeling of permafrost dynamics in changing climate scenarios
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology. (Hydrology)
Los Alamos Natl Lab, Los Alamos. (Computat Earth Sci Grp, Div Earth & Environm Sci)
(Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK), Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology)
(Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK), Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology)
2011 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Analysis of permafrost dynamics with a three-phase, two-component flow system coupled to heat transport is used to evaluate transient changes in groundwater seepage. Both seasonal and annual analysis of flow is conducted, assuming three warming temperature trends over a ten year period, representing three climate change scenarios. Previous results have indicated that a reduction in temporal variability of groundwater flow is expected to occur for a moderate temperature trend over long warming time periods. Here, new results indicate this is also expected for larger rates-of-change of temperature increase and over shorter time periods. Additionally it is shown that short-term annual flow variability may serve as early indicators for permafrost degradation also for greater warming trends, rather than solely relying on long-term changes in mean flows.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2011.
Keyword [en]
Permafrost; Climate change; Multiphase flow; Heat transport; Modeling
National Category
Physical Geography Environmental Sciences Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-69036OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-69036DiVA: diva2:474640
Available from: 2012-01-09 Created: 2012-01-09 Last updated: 2012-01-10Bibliographically approved

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