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Management of coastal pollution by means of smart placement of human activities
Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
2011 (English)In: Journal of Coastal Research, ISSN 0749-0208, Vol. 57, 951-955 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We describe recent developments in the new technique that addresses the potential for a systematic increase in the time until an adverse impact (for example, an oil spill) reaches a vulnerable sea area and a corresponding decrease in the probability of the impact reaching such an area after an accident has happened. The risk of coastal pollution is estimated using statistical analysis of a large pool of numerically simulated trajectories of water particles in the surface layer. A decrease in the risk level is possible by means of minimizing the probability for a coastal hit or by maximizing the time span until the pollution reaches the coast. Environmental gain is then achieved by placing the dangerous activities into sea areas (or redirecting ship traffic accordingly), from which the transport of the adverse impact to the coast is less likely or takes the most time. As a key new development, we introduce and analyze a measure of risk that systematically accounts for the potential increase in the sailing distance associated with the proposed approach. The resulting gain from the use of the corresponding optimal fairways is estimated for the test area of the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2011. Vol. 57, 951-955 p.
National Category
Environmental Sciences
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-70027OAI: diva2:478688
Available from: 2012-01-16 Created: 2012-01-16 Last updated: 2012-05-04Bibliographically approved

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Sokolov, Alexander
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