Change search
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Arctic RCM simulations of temperature and precipitation derived indices relevant to future frozen ground conditions
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
Show others and affiliations
2012 (English)In: Global and Planetary Change, ISSN 0921-8181, Vol. 80-81, 136-148 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A regional climate model with high horizontal resolution (25 km) is used to downscale 20-year-long time slices of present-day (1980–1999) and future (2046–2065, 2080–2099) Arctic climate, as simulated by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model under the A1B emission scenario. Changes in simulated air temperature and derived indices at the end of the century indicate that significant impacts on permafrost conditions should be expected. But the magnitude of the change is regionally conditioned beyond what is obvious: Warm permafrost in the sporadic to discontinuous zone is threatened and may degrade or even complete thaw before the end of the century. A decrease in freezing and increase in thawing degree-days is interpreted as potential decrease in seasonal freeze depth and increase in active layer thickness (ALT). We show that for some regions increasing maximum summer temperature is associated with an increase of interannual temperature variability in summer, while in other regions decreased maximum summer temperatures are related to decreased variability. The occurrence of warm/cold summers and spells changes significantly in the future time slices using the present-day criteria for classification. Taken together this implies a regionally varying exposure to significant change in permafrost conditions. In addition to these aspects of the general warming trend that would promote an increase in ALT and a northward shift of the southern permafrost boundary, an analysis of the occurrence of warm summers and spells highlight some particularly vulnerable regions for permafrost degradation (e.g. West Siberian Plain, Laptev Sea coast, Canadian Archipelago), but also some less vulnerable regions (e.g. Mackenzie Mountains).

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2012. Vol. 80-81, 136-148 p.
Keyword [en]
Arctic, climate change, air temperature, permafrost, regional climate model
National Category
Natural Sciences
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-70595DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.10.011ISI: 000299606600011OAI: diva2:482076
Available from: 2012-01-23 Created: 2012-01-23 Last updated: 2012-05-31Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full text

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Kuhry, Peter
By organisation
Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology
In the same journal
Global and Planetary Change
Natural Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Altmetric score

Total: 17 hits
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link