Estimation of the Malthusian parameter using martingale methods
(English)Article in journal (Refereed) Submitted
Data gathered from a large epidemic outbreak can be used to estimate disease related parameters. We analyse an estimate, based on martingale methods, of the Malthusian parameter, which determines the growth rate of the epidemic. This is done using a simple epidemic SIR model, with deterministic infectious period. We derive asymptotic properties of the estimate and compare them to the results from simulations of the epidemic. The advantage of our estimate is that is uses all the information contained in the epidemic curve, in contrast to the more common simpler estimates which uses only data from the start of the outbreak. The theoretical and numerical results show this in that the variance of the estimate decreases the more data we use.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
, 17 p.
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject Mathematical Statistics
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-71712OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-71712DiVA: diva2:485551