Change search
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study
Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
Show others and affiliations
2012 (English)In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, Vol. 41, no 6, 558-573 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2012. Vol. 41, no 6, 558-573 p.
Keyword [en]
Baltic Sea, Numerical modeling, Climate change, Eutrophication, Scenarios, Marine biogeochemical cycles
National Category
Ecology Environmental Sciences
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-81250DOI: 10.1007/s13280-012-0320-3ISI: 000308039100005OAI: diva2:560649


Available from: 2012-10-15 Created: 2012-10-15 Last updated: 2012-10-15Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full text

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Muller-Karulis, BarbelGustafsson, Bo G.
By organisation
Baltic Nest Institute
In the same journal
EcologyEnvironmental Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Altmetric score

Total: 123 hits
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link