Change search
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Long-term trends of hail-related weather types in an ensemble of regional climate models using a Bayesian approach
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
2012 (English)In: Journal of Geophysical Research, ISSN 0148-0227, E-ISSN 2156-2202, Vol. 117, D15107Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper investigates the long-term variability of specific weather types that are associated with damaging hailstorms in Germany for past (1971-2000) and future (2011-2050) time periods. Forty large-scale weather types are determined by the objective weather type classification scheme of German Weather Service. This scheme is applied to both reanalyses (ERA-40) and eight different regional climate model (RCM) simulations. It is shown that the RCMs are able to approximately reproduce the distribution of weather type occurrences obtained from the reference of ERA-40. Using additional insurance loss data, the weather types are further identified as hail-related or hail-unrelated. Hailstorms are neither captured comprehensively by existing observation systems nor can they be modeled reliably and the large-scale weather types are here considered as proxies for hail occurrence. Four weather types that are most likely associated with damaging hailstorms show a slight increase both during the past and future period according to the RCM simulations. A novel statistical model is developed for the probabilistic prediction of the fraction of hail damage days conditional on the weather types. The model is Bayesian and uses a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. For the ERA-40 reanalysis the model prediction agrees well with fraction of hail damage days observed in the insurance data. For most of the RCM projections, the statistical model predicts a slight increase in the number of hail days in the future (2031-2045), with relative changes between 7 and 15% compared to the period 1971-2000.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2012. Vol. 117, D15107
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Research subject
Atmospheric Sciences and Oceanography
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-81565DOI: 10.1029/2011JD017185ISI: 000307460600003OAI: diva2:563316


Available from: 2012-10-29 Created: 2012-10-25 Last updated: 2015-08-25Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full text

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Kapsch, Marie-Luise
By organisation
Department of Meteorology
In the same journal
Journal of Geophysical Research
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Altmetric score

Total: 56 hits
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link