Change search
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
The effects of adaptation and mitigation on coastal flood impacts during the 21st century: an application of the DIVA And IMAGE models
Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
2013 (English)In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 117, no 4, 783-794 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper studies the effects of mitigation and adaptation on coastal flood impacts. We focus on a scenario that stabilizes concentrations at 450 ppm-CO2-eq leading to 42 cm of global mean sea-level rise in 1995–2100 (GMSLR) and an unmitigated one leading to 63 cm of GMSLR. We also consider sensitivity scenarios reflecting increased tropical cyclone activity and a GMSLR of 126 cm. The only adaptation considered is upgrading and maintaining dikes. Under the unmitigated scenario and without adaptation, the number of people flooded reaches 168 million per year in 2100. Mitigation reduces this number by factor 1.4, adaptation by factor 461 and both options together by factor 540. The global annual flood cost (including dike upgrade cost, maintenance cost and residual damage cost) reaches US$ 210 billion per year in 2100 under the unmitigated scenario without adaptation. Mitigation reduces this number by factor 1.3, adaptation by factor 5.2 and both options together by factor 7.8. When assuming adaptation, the global annual flood cost relative to GDP falls throughout the century from about 0.06 % to 0.01–0.03 % under all scenarios including the sensitivity ones. From this perspective, adaptation to coastal flood impacts is meaningful to be widely applied irrespective of the level of mitigation. From the perspective of a some less-wealthy and small island countries, however, annual flood cost can amount to several percent of national GDP and mitigation can lower these costs significantly. We conclude that adaptation and mitigation are complimentary policies in coastal areas.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013. Vol. 117, no 4, 783-794 p.
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Atmospheric Sciences
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-82887DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0564-8OAI: diva2:572883
Available from: 2012-11-29 Created: 2012-11-29 Last updated: 2014-10-14Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full text

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Klein, Richard J. T.
By organisation
Stockholm Environment Institute
In the same journal
Climatic Change
Environmental Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Altmetric score

Total: 43 hits
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link