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Greenland’s contribution to global sea-level rise by the end of the 21st century
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
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2011 (English)In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 37, 1427-1442 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The Greenland ice sheet holds enough water to raise the global sea level with *7 m. Over the last few decades, observations manifest a substantial increase of the mass loss of this ice sheet. Both enhanced melting and increase of the dynamical discharge, associated with calving at the outlet-glacier fronts, are contributing to the mass imbalance. Using a dynamical and thermodynamical ice-sheet model, and taking into account speed up of outlet glaciers, we estimate Greenland’s contribution to the 21stcentury global sea-level rise and the uncertainty of this estimate. Boundary fields of temperature and precipitation extracted from coupled climate-model projections used for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, are applied to the icesheet model. We implement a simple parameterization for increased flow of outlet glaciers, which decreases the bias of the modeled present-day surface height. It also allows for taking into account the observed recent increase in dynamical discharge, and it can be used for future projections associated with outlet-glacier speed up. Greenland contributes 0–17 cm to global sea-level rise by the end of the 21st century. This range includes the uncertainties in climate-model projections, the uncertainty associated with scenarios of greenhouse-gas emissions, as well as the uncertainties in future outlet-glacier discharge. In addition, the range takes into account the uncertainty of the ice-sheet model and its boundary fields.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2011. Vol. 37, 1427-1442 p.
Keyword [en]
Sea-level-rise projection, Greenland ice sheet, Outlet glacier, Ice-sheet modeling
National Category
Climate Research
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-89834DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0918-8OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-89834DiVA: diva2:620985
Available from: 2013-05-13 Created: 2013-05-13 Last updated: 2017-12-06Bibliographically approved

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