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Modeling the impact of reduced sea ice cover in future climate on the Baltic Sea biogeochemistry
Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, S-60176 Norrköping, Sweden.
Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, S-60176 Norrköping, Sweden.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, S-60176 Norrköping, Sweden.
2013 (English)In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, Vol. 40, no 1, 149-154 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In a warming future climate, the sea ice cover is expected to decrease, with very likely large consequences for the marine ecosystem. We investigated the impact of future sea ice retreat on the Baltic Sea biogeochemistry at the end of the century, using an ensemble of regionalized global climate simulations. We found that the spring bloom will start by up to one month earlier and winds and wave-induced resuspension will increase, causing an increased transport of nutrients from the productive coastal zone into the deeper areas. The internal nutrient fluxes do not necessarily increase because they also depend on oxygen and temperature conditions of the bottom water. Winter mixing increases in areas having reduced ice cover and in areas having reduced stratification due to increased freshwater supply. The reduced sea ice cover therefore partly counteracts eutrophication because increased vertical mixing improves oxygen conditions in lower layers.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013. Vol. 40, no 1, 149-154 p.
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-90205DOI: 10.1029/2012GL054375ISI: 000317826300028OAI: diva2:623642
EU, European Research Council, 217246FormasKnut and Alice Wallenberg FoundationSwedish Research CouncilThe Middle East in the Contemporary World


Available from: 2013-05-28 Created: 2013-05-28 Last updated: 2013-09-26Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Ridged sea ice modelling in climate applications
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Ridged sea ice modelling in climate applications
2013 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This work aims to increase our understanding of the nature of large scale features of sea ice from a dynamics point of view.Sea ice plays an important part in the exchange of heat and humidity between sea and air and thus is an important component of the climate system. Its physical presence also directly impacts the various forms of life such as diatoms, polar bears and humans alike.The dynamics of sea ice affect both weather and climate, through the large scale drift in the Arctic from the Siberian coast towards Fram Strait, through creation of cracks in the ice called leads or polynyas, and through ridging and other mechanical deformations of ice floes.In this work, we have focused on modelling of ridged ice for a number of reasons. Direct observations of the internal ice state is very difficult to perform and in general, observations of sea ice are either sparse or of limited information density. Ridged ice can be seen as the memory of high ice stress events, giving us a view on these highly dynamic events. Ridging is of major importance for the ice thickness distribution, as the thickest ice can only be formed through mechanical processes. Further, ridged ice is of direct interest for anyone conducting shipping through seasonal or perennial ice covered seas as it can form impenetrable barriers or in extreme even cases crush a ship caught within the ice pack.

To this end, a multi-category sea ice model, the HELsinki Multi category Ice model (HELMI), was implemented into the Rossby Centre Ocean model (RCO). HELMI has explicit formulations for ridged and rafted ice, as well as sub-grid scale ice thickness distribution (a feature shared with other multi category models) and an ice strength based on energetics. These features give RCO better representation of sub-grid scale physics and gives us the possibility to study the deformed ice in detail.

In paper I we look at the change in behaviour in the Arctic as the ice becomes more mobile, leading to a slight increase in modelled ridged ice volume in the central Arctic, despite a general trend of a decreasing ice cover.Paper II takes us to the Baltic Sea and the possibilities of modelling ridge ice concentration with a statistical model.In Paper III we investigate how the diminishing ice cover in future scenarios affects the biological activity in the Baltic Sea.Finally Paper IV investigates how the ice stress and the internal ice force can be interpreted in terms of ice compression on the ship scale.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, 2013. 37 p.
Arctic ocean, Baltic Sea, sea ice, ice dynamics, numerical modelling, climate, ice deformation, ice compression, physical and biogeochemical interactions
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
Research subject
Atmospheric Sciences and Oceanography
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-93977 (URN)978-91-7447-767-2 (ISBN)
Public defence
2013-10-22, William-Olssonsalen, Geovetenskapens hus, Svante Arrhenius väg 14, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)

At the time of the doctoral defence the following paper was unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 4: Manuscript

Available from: 2013-09-30 Created: 2013-09-22 Last updated: 2013-09-25Bibliographically approved

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