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Modeling Social—Ecological Scenarios in Marine Systems
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
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2013 (English)In: BioScience, ISSN 0006-3568, E-ISSN 1525-3244, Vol. 63, no 9, 735-744 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Human activities have substantial impacts on marine ecosystems, including rapid regime shifts with large consequences for human well-being. We highlight the use of model-based scenarios as a scientific tool for adaptive stewardship in the face of such consequences. The natural sciences have a long history of developing scenarios but rarely with an in-depth understanding of factors influencing human actions. Social scientists have traditionally investigated human behavior, but scholars often argue that behavior is too complex to be repre-ented by broad generalizations useful for models and scenarios. We address this scientific divide with a framework for integrated marine social ecological scenarios, combining quantitative process-based models from the biogeochemical and ecological disciplines with qualitative studies on governance and social change. The aim is to develop policy-relevant scenarios based on an in-depth empirical understanding from both the natural and the social sciences, thereby contributing to adaptive stewardship of marine social-ecological systems.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013. Vol. 63, no 9, 735-744 p.
Keyword [en]
Baltic Sea, ecosystem approach, governance, human dimension, Nereus
National Category
Biological Sciences
Research subject
Sustainability Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-95434DOI: 10.1525/bio.2013.63.9.9ISI: 000324785300009OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-95434DiVA: diva2:660829
Funder
Mistra - The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental ResearchSwedish Research Council Formas
Note

AuthorCount:19;

Available from: 2013-10-31 Created: 2013-10-28 Last updated: 2017-09-27Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Global Ocean Futures: Governance of marine fisheries in the Anthropocene
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Global Ocean Futures: Governance of marine fisheries in the Anthropocene
2016 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This PhD thesis provides an analysis of how an adaptive governance approach can be applied to address existing and emerging challenges in global governance with a focus on marine, wild-capture fisheries. All the papers share a coupled social-ecological framing while providing diverse but complementary perspectives. Paper I provides a lens through which it is possible understand the types of interactions that link social and ecological components of fisheries systems at the global scale. The key result of this paper was the development of a marine social-ecological framework to guide future modelling and scenario analysis. Paper II describes the process of emergence and spread of new ideas in marine governance using Marine Spatial Planning as an illustrative case study. The study shows how governance innovations may contribute to resolving the mismatches between the scale of ecological processes and the scale of governance of ecosystems. A key finding of the paper is the identification and explanation of the mechanisms by which informal networks of actors are able to influence the emergence and spread of new governance forms from the local to the global scale. Paper III focuses on governance of ocean areas beyond national jurisdiction. The key finding from this paper is the urgent need for existing and emerging governance institutions to build capacity for responding to the challenges facing governance of marine fisheries. These challenges arise from unexpected shifts in markets, technology and society. Paper IV develops a set of four imaginative but plausible ‘radical’ futures for global fisheries drawing on trends compiled from a diverse evidence base. The four resulting narratives aim to act as lenses for engaging debate and deeper reflection on how non-linear changes in technology and society might radically shift the operating context and core assumptions of fisheries governance in the future. These papers make a novel contribution to Sustainability Science through their focus on 1) the conditions for, and mechanisms of emergence of diverse and divergent governance forms, 2) the role of agency in complex actor settings, 3) the need for governance institutions to not only deal with, but also be able to anticipate surprise, and 4) the development of scenarios of marine social-ecological futures using a creative and rigorous narrative approach.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 2016. 70 p.
Keyword
fisheries, futures, global governance, marine ecosystems, scenarios, social-ecological system
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Sustainability Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-127618 (URN)978-91-7649-347-2 (ISBN)
Public defence
2016-04-08, Gröjersalen, hus 3, Kräftriket, Roslagsvägen 101, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Mistra - The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research
Note

At the time of the doctoral defense, the following paper was unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 4: Manuscript.

Available from: 2016-03-16 Created: 2016-03-08 Last updated: 2017-02-23Bibliographically approved

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Österblom, HenrikMerrie, AndrewMetian, MarcBoonstra, Wiebren J.Blenckner, ThorstenSchlüter, MajaBirnbaum, SimonGustafsson, Bo G.Humborg, ChristophMörth, Carl-MagnusMuller-Karulis, BärbelTomczak, Maciej T.Troell, MaxFolke, Carl
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