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Second-Order Credal Combination of Evidence
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
2013 (English)In: Proceedings of the Eighth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications / [ed] Fabio Cozman et al., Society for Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications , 2013, 169-178 p.Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

We utilize second-order probability distributions for modeling second-order information over imprecise evidence in the form of credal sets. We generalize the Dirichlet distribution to a shifted version, denoted the S-Dirichlet, which allows one to restrict the support of the distribution by lower bounds. Based on the S-Dirichlet distribution, we present a simple combination schema denoted as second-order credal combination (SOCC), which takes second-order probability into account. The combination schema is based on a set of particles, sampled from the operands, and a set of weights that are obtained through the S-Dirichlet distribution. We show by examples that the second-order probability distribution over the imprecise joint evidence can be remarkably concentrated and hence that the credal combination operator can significantly overestimate the imprecision.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Society for Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications , 2013. 169-178 p.
Keyword [en]
Second-order credal combination, Imprecise probability, Credal sets, Second-order probability, Combination, Evidence
National Category
Information Systems
Research subject
Computer and Systems Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-95627ISBN: 978-2-913923-35-5 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-95627DiVA: diva2:660934
Conference
ISIPTA '13, 8th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, Compiegne, France, 2-5 July, 2013
Available from: 2013-10-31 Created: 2013-10-31 Last updated: 2014-01-21Bibliographically approved

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