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Approaching the Limit of Predictability in Human Mobility
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Karolinska Inst, Dept Publ Hlth Sci, S-17177 Stockholm, Sweden.
Stockholm Sch Econ, Dept Management & Org, Sweden.
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2013 (English)In: Scientific Reports, ISSN 2045-2322, Vol. 3, 2923- p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this study we analyze the travel patterns of 500,000 individuals in Cote d'Ivoire using mobile phone call data records. By measuring the uncertainties of movements using entropy, considering both the frequencies and temporal correlations of individual trajectories, we find that the theoretical maximum predictability is as high as 88%. To verify whether such a theoretical limit can be approached, we implement a series of Markov chain (MC) based models to predict the actual locations visited by each user. Results show that MC models can produce a prediction accuracy of 87% for stationary trajectories and 95% for non-stationary trajectories. Our findings indicate that human mobility is highly dependent on historical behaviors, and that the maximum predictability is not only a fundamental theoretical limit for potential predictive power, but also an approachable target for actual prediction accuracy.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013. Vol. 3, 2923- p.
National Category
Natural Sciences Engineering and Technology
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-96096DOI: 10.1038/srep02923ISI: 000325536600002OAI: diva2:664193


Funding agencies:

RAPIDD program of the Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security;  Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health;  NIH/NIAID U19AI089674;  Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 49446, 1032350; Branco Weiss - Society in Science  

Available from: 2013-11-14 Created: 2013-11-11 Last updated: 2013-11-14Bibliographically approved

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