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Business model risk analysis: predicting the probability of business network profitability
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2013 (English)In: Enterprise Interoperability: 5th International IFIP Working Conference, IWEI 2013. Proceedings / [ed] Marten van Sinderen, Paul Oude Luttighuis, Erwin Folmer, Steven Bosems, Springer Berlin/Heidelberg, 2013, 118-130 p.Conference paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In the design phase of business collaboration, it is desirable to be able to predict the profitability of the business-to-be. Therefore, techniques to assess qualities such as costs, revenues, risks, and profitability have been previously proposed. However, they do not allow the modeler to properly manage uncertainty with respect to the design of the considered business collaboration. In many real collaboration projects today, uncertainty regarding the business’ present or future characteristics is so significant that ignoring it becomes problematic. In this paper, we propose an approach based on the Predictive, Probabilistic Architecture Modeling Framework (P2AMF), capable of advanced and probabilistically sound reasoning about profitability risks. The P2AMF-based approach for profitability risk prediction is also based on the e3-value modeling language and on the Object Constraint Language (OCL). The paper introduces the prediction and modeling approach, and a supporting software tool. The use of the approach is illustrated by means of a case.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Berlin/Heidelberg, 2013. 118-130 p.
, Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing, ISSN 1865-1348 ; 144
Keyword [en]
value networks, profitability, risk analysis, probabilistic inference, goal interoperability
National Category
Information Systems
Research subject
Computer and Systems Sciences
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-96345DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-36796-0_11ISBN: 978-3-642-36795-3ISBN: 978-3-642-36796-0OAI: diva2:665490
5th International IFIP Working Conference, IWEI 2013, Enschede, The Netherlands, March 27-28, 2013
Available from: 2013-11-20 Created: 2013-11-20 Last updated: 2015-04-21Bibliographically approved

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Magnusson, ChristerLadhe, Tobias
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Department of Computer and Systems Sciences
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ReferencesLink to record
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