Past millennial solar forcing magnitude: A statistical hemispheric-scale climate model versus proxy data comparison
2013 (English)In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 41, no 9-10, 2527-2537 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
A set of global climatemodel simulations for the lastthousand years developed by the Max Planck Institute is comparedwith paleoclimate proxy data and instrumental data,focusing on surface temperatures for land areas between 30 and75N. The proxy data are obtained from six previously publishedNorthern Hemispheric-scale temperature reconstructions, here recalibratedfor consistency, which are compared with the simulationsutilizing a newly developed statistical framework forranking several competing simulations by means of their statisticaldistance against past climate variations. The climate modelsimulations are driven by either ‘‘low’’ or ‘‘high’’ solar forcingamplitudes (0.1 and 0.25 % smaller total solar irradiance in the Maunder Minimum period compared to the present) in addition toseveral other known climate forcings of importance. Our resultsindicate that the high solar forcing amplitude results in a poorermatch with the hemispheric-scale temperature reconstructionsand lends stronger statistical support for the low-amplitude solarforcing. However, results are likely conditional upon the sensitivityof the climate model used and strongly dependent on thechoice of temperature reconstruction, hence a greater consensus isneeded regarding the reconstruction of past temperatures as thiscurrently provides a great source of uncertainty.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Publishing Company, 2013. Vol. 41, no 9-10, 2527-2537 p.
Climate Research Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-96689DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1526-6ISI: 000326244700017OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-96689DiVA: diva2:667072
FunderSwedish Research Council, 90751501,B0334901