Change search
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Testing the Potential for Predictive Modeling and Mapping and Extending Its Use as a Tool for Evaluating Management Scenarios and Economic Valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB)
Show others and affiliations
2014 (English)In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, Vol. 43, no 1, 82-93 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We evaluated performance of species distribution models for predictive mapping, and how models can be used to integrate human pressures into ecological and economic assessments. A selection of 77 biological variables (species, groups of species, and measures of biodiversity) across the Baltic Sea were modeled. Differences among methods, areas, predictor, and response variables were evaluated. Several methods successfully predicted abundance and occurrence of vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and functional aspects of biodiversity. Depth and substrate were among the most important predictors. Models incorporating water clarity were used to predict increasing cover of the brown alga bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and increasing reproduction area of perch Perca fluviatilis, but decreasing reproduction areas for pikeperch Sander lucioperca following successful implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Despite variability in estimated non-market benefits among countries, such changes were highly valued by citizens in the three Baltic countries investigated. We conclude that predictive models are powerful and useful tools for science-based management of the Baltic Sea.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. Vol. 43, no 1, 82-93 p.
Keyword [en]
Predictive mapping, Management scenarios, Benthic habitats, Economic valuation, Baltic Sea
National Category
Environmental Sciences Ecology
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-100851DOI: 10.1007/s13280-013-0479-2ISI: 000329831800008OAI: diva2:698349


Available from: 2014-02-21 Created: 2014-02-17 Last updated: 2014-02-21Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full text

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Gullström, Martin
By organisation
Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences
In the same journal
Environmental SciencesEcology

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Altmetric score

Total: 128 hits
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link