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Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management
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2014 (English)In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, Vol. 43, no 1, 37-48 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960-2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. Vol. 43, no 1, 37-48 p.
Keyword [en]
Baltic Sea, Ecosystem approach to management, Baltic Sea Action Plan, Climate change, Eutrophication, Multi-model ensemble approach
National Category
Environmental Sciences Ecology
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-100848DOI: 10.1007/s13280-013-0475-6ISI: 000329831800004OAI: diva2:698356


Available from: 2014-02-21 Created: 2014-02-17 Last updated: 2014-10-01Bibliographically approved

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Gustafsson, Bo G.Niiranen, SusaSavchuk, Oleg P.
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Baltic Nest InstituteStockholm Resilience Centre
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