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Multi-year prediction skill of Atlantic hurricane activity in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
2014 (English)In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 42, no 9-10, 2675-2690 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Using a statistical relationship between simulated sea surface temperature and Atlantic hurricane activity, we estimate the skill of a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble at predicting multi-annual level of Atlantic hurricane activity. The series of yearly-initialized hindcasts show positive skill compared to simpler forecasts such as persistence and climatology as well as non-initialized forecasts and return anomaly correlation coefficients of similar to 0.6 and similar to 0.8 for five and nine year forecasts, respectively. Some skill is shown to remain in the later years and making use of those later years to create a lagged-ensemble yields, for individual models, results that approach that obtained by the multi-model ensemble. Some of the skill is shown to come from persisting rather than predicting the climate shift that occur in 1994-1995. After accounting for that shift, the anomaly correlation coefficient for five-year forecasts is estimated to drop to 0.4, but remains statistically significant up to lead years 3-7. Most of the skill is shown to come from the ability of the forecast systems at capturing change in Atlantic sea surface temperature, although the failure of most systems at reproducing the observed slow down in warming over the tropics in recent years leads to an underestimation of hurricane activity in the later period.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. Vol. 42, no 9-10, 2675-2690 p.
Keyword [en]
Decadal climate prediction, Multi-model ensemble, Forecast, Atlantic variability, Hurricane activity
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-105930DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1773-1ISI: 000336983900027OAI: diva2:733201
EU, European Research Council, 3038378


Available from: 2014-07-08 Created: 2014-07-08 Last updated: 2014-07-08Bibliographically approved

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