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Estimation of the variance effective population size in age structured populations
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.
2015 (English)In: Theoretical Population Biology, ISSN 0040-5809, E-ISSN 1096-0325, Vol. 101, 9-23 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The variance effective population size for age structured populations is generally hard to estimate and the temporal method often gives biased estimates. Here, we give an explicit expression for a correction factor which, combined with estimates from the temporal method, yield approximately unbiased estimates. The calculation of the correction factor requires knowledge of the age specific offspring distribution and survival probabilities as well as possible correlation between survival and reproductive success. In order to relax these requirements, we show that only first order moments of these distributions need to be known if the time between samples is large, or individuals from all age classes which reproduce are sampled. A very explicit approximate expression for the asymptotic coefficient of standard deviation of the estimator is derived, and it can be used to construct confidence intervals and optimal ways of weighting information from different markers. The asymptotic coefficient of standard deviation can also be used to design studies and we show that in order to maximize the precision for a given sample size, individuals from older age classes should be sampled since their expected variance of allele frequency change is higher and easier to estimate. However, for populations with fluctuating age class sizes, the accuracy of the method is reduced when samples are taken from older age classes with high demographic variation. We also present a method for simultaneous estimation of the variance effective and census population size.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 101, 9-23 p.
Keyword [en]
Variance effective population size, Temporal method, Effective number of independent alleles, Overlapping generations, Confidence interval
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Mathematical Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-115417DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2015.02.003ISI: 000352828400002OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-115417DiVA: diva2:797553
Available from: 2015-03-24 Created: 2015-03-24 Last updated: 2017-12-04Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Inbreeding, Effective Population Sizes and Genetic Differentiation: A Mathematical Analysis of Structured Populations
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Inbreeding, Effective Population Sizes and Genetic Differentiation: A Mathematical Analysis of Structured Populations
2015 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis consists of four papers on various aspects of inbreeding, effective population sizes and genetic differentiation in structured populations, that is, populations that consist of a number of subpopulations. Three of the papers concern age structured populations, where in the first paper we concentrate on calculating the variance effective population size (NeV) and how NeV depends on the time between measurements and the weighting scheme of age classes. In the third paper we develop an estimation procedure of NeV which uses age specific demographic parameters to obtain approximately unbiased estimates. A simulation method for age structured populations is presented in the fourth paper. It is applicable to models with multiallelic loci in linkage equilibrium.

In the second paper, we develop a framework for analysis of effective population sizes and genetic differentiation in geographically subdivided populations with a general migration scheme. Predictions of gene identities and gene diversities of the population are presented, which are used to find expressions for effective population sizes (Ne) and the coefficient of gene differentiation (GST). We argue that not only the asymptotic values of Ne and GST are important, but also their temporal dynamic patterns.

The models presented in this thesis are important for understanding how different age decomposition, migration and reproduction scenarios of a structured population affect quantities, such as various types of effective sizes and genetic differentiation between subpopulations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, 2015
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Mathematical Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-115708 (URN)978-91-7649-147-8 (ISBN)
Public defence
2015-05-22, room 14, house 5, Kräftriket, Roslagsvägen 101, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

At the time of the doctoral defense, the following paper was unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 4: Submitted.

Available from: 2015-04-29 Created: 2015-03-27 Last updated: 2015-05-05Bibliographically approved

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