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Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.
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2015 (English)In: Epidemics, ISSN 1755-4365, E-ISSN 1878-0067, Vol. 10, 54-57 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing)? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 10, 54-57 p.
Keyword [en]
Stochastic epidemics, Global transmission, Extinction, Genetic evolution, Endemicity
National Category
Health Sciences Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-117006DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.05.002ISI: 000352226900013PubMedID: 25843384OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-117006DiVA: diva2:810754
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AuthorCount:6;

Available from: 2015-05-08 Created: 2015-05-05 Last updated: 2017-12-04Bibliographically approved

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