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Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management
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Number of Authors: 13
2015 (English)In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 44, S345-S356 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 degrees C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase similar to 30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 44, S345-S356 p.
Keyword [en]
Climate change, Allochthonous organic matter, Primary production, Bacterial production, Food web, Monitoring
National Category
Environmental Engineering Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-122123DOI: 10.1007/s13280-015-0654-8ISI: 000362290800003OAI: diva2:865553
Available from: 2015-10-28 Created: 2015-10-26 Last updated: 2015-10-28Bibliographically approved

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Elmgren, Ragnar
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Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences
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