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Modeling for Policy Formulation: Causal Mapping, Scenario Generation, and Decision Evaluation
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. Mid Sweden University, Sweden.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
2015 (English)In: Electronic Participation: 7th IFIP 8.5 International Conference, ePart 2015, Thessaloniki, Greece, August 30 - September 2, 2015, Proceedings / [ed] Efthimios Tambouris, Panos Panagiotopoulos, Øystein Sæbø, Konstantinos Tarabanis, Maria A. Wimmer, Michela Milano, Theresa Pardo, Springer Publishing Company, 2015, 135-146 p.Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In this paper we present a work process with associated operational research modeling and analysis tools for the policy formulation stage of the Lindblom policy cycle process model. The approach exploits the use of causal maps for problem structuring and scenario generation of policy options together with decision analysis for evaluating generated scenarios taking preferences of decision makers and stakeholders into account. The benefits of interest when exploiting this integrated modeling approach is to enable for; (i) problem structuring and facilitating understanding and communication of a complex policy problem, (ii) simulation of policy consequences and identification of a smaller set of policy options from a possible very large set of possible options, and (iii) structured decision evaluation of the generated alternative policy options.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Publishing Company, 2015. 135-146 p.
Series
Lecture Notes in Computer Science, ISSN 0302-9743 ; 9249
Keyword [en]
Policy analysis, Impact assessment, Policy modelling, Problem structuring, Dynamic simulation, Causal mapping, Scenario planning, Decision analysis
National Category
Information Systems
Research subject
Computer and Systems Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-122843DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-22500-5_11ISBN: 978-3-319-22499-2 (print)ISBN: 978-3-319-22500-5 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-122843DiVA: diva2:868552
Conference
7th IFIP 8.5 International Conference, ePart 2015, Thessaloniki, Greece, August 30 - September 2, 2015
Available from: 2015-11-11 Created: 2015-11-10 Last updated: 2016-11-22Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1.
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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
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  • de-DE
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Output format
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