Modeling for Policy Formulation: causal Mapping, Scenario Generation, and Decision Evaluation
2015 (English)In: 7th IFIP 8.5 International Conference, ePart 2015,: proceedings / [ed] Efthimios Tambouris et al, Sham: Springer Publishing Company, 2015, 135-146 p.Conference paper (Refereed)
In this paper we present a work process with associated operational research modeling and analysis tools for the policy formulation stage of the Lindblom policy cycle process model. The approach exploits the use of causal maps for problem structuring and scenario generation of policy options together with decision analysis for evaluating generated scenarios taking preferences of decision makers and stakeholders into account. The benefits of interest when exploiting this integrated modeling approach is to enable for; (i) problem structuring and facilitating understanding and communication of a complex policy problem, (ii) simulation of policy consequences and identification of a smaller set of policy options from a possible very large set of possible options, and (iii) structured decision evaluation of the generated alternative policy options.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sham: Springer Publishing Company, 2015. 135-146 p.
, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, ISSN 0302-9743 ; 9249
Policy analysis, Impact assessment, Policy modelling, Problem structuring, Dynamic simulation, Causal mapping, Scenario planning, Decision analysis
Research subject Computer and Systems Sciences
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-122843DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-22500-5_11ISBN: 978-3-319-22500-5OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-122843DiVA: diva2:868552
Electronic Participation: 7th IFIP 8.5 International Conference, ePart 2015, Thessaloniki, Greece, August 30 -- September 2, 2015,