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Identifying causal gateways and mediators in complex spatio-temporal systems
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.
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Number of Authors: 10
2015 (English)In: Nature Communications, ISSN 2041-1723, E-ISSN 2041-1723, Vol. 6, 8502Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Identifying regions important for spreading and mediating perturbations is crucial to assess the susceptibilities of spatio-temporal complex systems such as the Earth's climate to volcanic eruptions, extreme events or geoengineering. Here a data-driven approach is introduced based on a dimension reduction, causal reconstruction, and novel network measures based on causal effect theory that go beyond standard complex network tools by distinguishing direct from indirect pathways. Applied to a data set of atmospheric dynamics, the method identifies several strongly uplifting regions acting as major gateways of perturbations spreading in the atmosphere. Additionally, the method provides a stricter statistical approach to pathways of atmospheric teleconnections, yielding insights into the Pacific-Indian Ocean interaction relevant for monsoonal dynamics. Also for neuroscience or power grids, the novel causal interaction perspective provides a complementary approach to simulations or experiments for understanding the functioning of complex spatio-temporal systems with potential applications in increasing their resilience to shocks or extreme events.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 6, 8502
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Computer and Information Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-125033DOI: 10.1038/ncomms9502ISI: 000364929000004PubMedID: 26443010OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-125033DiVA: diva2:891781
Available from: 2016-01-07 Created: 2016-01-07 Last updated: 2016-01-07Bibliographically approved

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Donges, Jonathan F.
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Stockholm Resilience Centre
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