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Private debt in Sweden in 1900–2013 and the risk of financial crisis
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economic History.
2015 (English)In: Scandinavian Economic History Review, ISSN 0358-5522, E-ISSN 1750-2837, Vol. 63, no 3, 302-323 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study presents new time series data for private debt in Sweden in 1900–2013,including credit from banks, mortgage institutes and credit companies. Thereconstruction of the data is a scientific task by itself, and is complicated bychanged definitions, breaks in the series, and the need for occasionalinterpolation and cross-reference of sources. The obtained data reveal bothqualitative and quantitative changes in the structure of private debt in Swedenduring the period. One finding is a pattern where the era starting with thederegulation of the credit market in 1985 resembles the era preceding World WarTwo. Both periods experienced a high level of private debt-to-GDP ratio as wellas severe financial crises. In a first application of the data, the hypothesis ofrising private debt in the years before a financial crisis is explored through logitregression. The findings are in line with international research, and suggest thathigher lending, especially from banks, might aggravate the risk of financial crisis.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 63, no 3, 302-323 p.
Keyword [en]
private deb, bank credit, mortgage, financial crisis
National Category
Economic History
Research subject
Economic History
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-125225DOI: 10.1080/03585522.2015.1084946OAI: diva2:892135
Available from: 2016-01-08 Created: 2016-01-08 Last updated: 2016-01-11Bibliographically approved

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Ahnland, Lars
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