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The impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . University of Leeds, UK.
Number of Authors: 2
2015 (English)In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 42, no 21, 9546-9552 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We completed a meta-analysis of regional and global climate model simulations (n = 96) of the impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall. Across all simulations, mean (+/- 1 sigma) change in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall was -12 +/- 11%. Variability in simulated rainfall was not explained by differences in model resolution or surface parameters. Across all simulations we find a negative linear relationship between rainfall and deforestation extent, although individual studies often simulate a nonlinear response. Using the linear relationship, we estimate that deforestation in 2010 has reduced annual mean rainfall across the Amazon basin by 1.8 +/- 0.3%, less than the interannual variability in observed rainfall. This may explain why a reduction in Amazon rainfall has not consistently been observed. We estimate that business-as-usual deforestation (based on deforestation rates prior to 2004) would lead to an 8.1 +/- 1.4% reduction in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall by 2050, greater than natural variability.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 42, no 21, 9546-9552 p.
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-126850DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066063ISI: 000368336800095OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-126850DiVA: diva2:906358
Available from: 2016-02-24 Created: 2016-02-16 Last updated: 2016-02-24Bibliographically approved

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