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Global Ocean Futures: Governance of marine fisheries in the Anthropocene
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4036-3725
2016 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This PhD thesis provides an analysis of how an adaptive governance approach can be applied to address existing and emerging challenges in global governance with a focus on marine, wild-capture fisheries. All the papers share a coupled social-ecological framing while providing diverse but complementary perspectives. Paper I provides a lens through which it is possible understand the types of interactions that link social and ecological components of fisheries systems at the global scale. The key result of this paper was the development of a marine social-ecological framework to guide future modelling and scenario analysis. Paper II describes the process of emergence and spread of new ideas in marine governance using Marine Spatial Planning as an illustrative case study. The study shows how governance innovations may contribute to resolving the mismatches between the scale of ecological processes and the scale of governance of ecosystems. A key finding of the paper is the identification and explanation of the mechanisms by which informal networks of actors are able to influence the emergence and spread of new governance forms from the local to the global scale. Paper III focuses on governance of ocean areas beyond national jurisdiction. The key finding from this paper is the urgent need for existing and emerging governance institutions to build capacity for responding to the challenges facing governance of marine fisheries. These challenges arise from unexpected shifts in markets, technology and society. Paper IV develops a set of four imaginative but plausible ‘radical’ futures for global fisheries drawing on trends compiled from a diverse evidence base. The four resulting narratives aim to act as lenses for engaging debate and deeper reflection on how non-linear changes in technology and society might radically shift the operating context and core assumptions of fisheries governance in the future. These papers make a novel contribution to Sustainability Science through their focus on 1) the conditions for, and mechanisms of emergence of diverse and divergent governance forms, 2) the role of agency in complex actor settings, 3) the need for governance institutions to not only deal with, but also be able to anticipate surprise, and 4) the development of scenarios of marine social-ecological futures using a creative and rigorous narrative approach.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University , 2016. , 70 p.
Keyword [en]
fisheries, futures, global governance, marine ecosystems, scenarios, social-ecological system
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Sustainability Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-127618ISBN: 978-91-7649-347-2 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-127618DiVA: diva2:910339
Public defence
2016-04-08, Gröjersalen, hus 3, Kräftriket, Roslagsvägen 101, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Mistra - The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research
Note

At the time of the doctoral defense, the following paper was unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 4: Manuscript.

Available from: 2016-03-16 Created: 2016-03-08 Last updated: 2017-02-23Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Modeling Social—Ecological Scenarios in Marine Systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modeling Social—Ecological Scenarios in Marine Systems
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2013 (English)In: BioScience, ISSN 0006-3568, E-ISSN 1525-3244, Vol. 63, no 9, 735-744 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Human activities have substantial impacts on marine ecosystems, including rapid regime shifts with large consequences for human well-being. We highlight the use of model-based scenarios as a scientific tool for adaptive stewardship in the face of such consequences. The natural sciences have a long history of developing scenarios but rarely with an in-depth understanding of factors influencing human actions. Social scientists have traditionally investigated human behavior, but scholars often argue that behavior is too complex to be repre-ented by broad generalizations useful for models and scenarios. We address this scientific divide with a framework for integrated marine social ecological scenarios, combining quantitative process-based models from the biogeochemical and ecological disciplines with qualitative studies on governance and social change. The aim is to develop policy-relevant scenarios based on an in-depth empirical understanding from both the natural and the social sciences, thereby contributing to adaptive stewardship of marine social-ecological systems.

Keyword
Baltic Sea, ecosystem approach, governance, human dimension, Nereus
National Category
Biological Sciences
Research subject
Sustainability Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-95434 (URN)10.1525/bio.2013.63.9.9 (DOI)000324785300009 ()
Funder
Mistra - The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental ResearchSwedish Research Council Formas
Note

AuthorCount:19;

Available from: 2013-10-31 Created: 2013-10-28 Last updated: 2017-09-27Bibliographically approved
2. An innovation and agency perspective on the emergence and spread of Marine Spatial Planning
Open this publication in new window or tab >>An innovation and agency perspective on the emergence and spread of Marine Spatial Planning
2014 (English)In: Marine Policy, ISSN 0308-597X, E-ISSN 1872-9460, Vol. 44, 366-374 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The roles of governance and technological innovation have been widely recognized as important parts of sustainability transitions. However, less attention has been paid to understanding the mechanisms of the emergence and spread of innovative ideas for stewardship of social-ecological systems. This study considers how theories of innovation and agency are able to provide explanatory power regarding the spread and impact of such ideas. This includes how innovations may contribute to resolving the mismatches between the scale of ecological processes and the scale of governance of ecosystems. The emergence and spread of Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) is used as an illustrative case study. The study shows that individuals embedded in informal networks have played a key role in driving the emergence of MSP across scales and in constantly re-framing the tool in order to overcome obstacles to adoption and implementation. In a number of cases, MSP has been decoupled from the ecosystem despite being framed as a tool for ecosystem-based management. Finally, this study is important to understand the process of emergence of new integrated tools for ecosystem stewardship at the global level.

Keyword
Large-scale marine governance, Social-ecological systems, Institutional entrepreneurship, Diffusion, Innovation, Marine Spatial Planning
National Category
Ecology Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Sustainability Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-100647 (URN)10.1016/j.marpol.2013.10.006 (DOI)000329536400046 ()
Note

AuthorCount:2;

Available from: 2014-02-14 Created: 2014-02-10 Last updated: 2017-12-06Bibliographically approved
3. An ocean of surprises - Trends in human use, unexpected dynamics and governance challenges in areas beyond national jurisdiction
Open this publication in new window or tab >>An ocean of surprises - Trends in human use, unexpected dynamics and governance challenges in areas beyond national jurisdiction
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2014 (English)In: Global Environmental Change, ISSN 0959-3780, E-ISSN 1872-9495, Vol. 27, 19-31 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The expanse of ocean which makes up all marine areas beyond national jurisdiction has been characterized as the last frontier of exploitation on the planet, a figurative final Wild West. Existing users of areas beyond national jurisdiction, with the exception of fisheries, currently have a limited footprint there as a consequence, in part, of substantial hurdles in technological development that need to be overcome before many resources can be extracted at a commercially viable scale. However, we argue surprise shifts perpetuated by both established and emerging users could lead to an expansion in actors taking opportunities to chase lucrative resources that they are currently constrained from exploiting. Rapid development could also lead to a crowded ocean due to the multiplication of users which could present a problem given the current lack of a unified institutional framework for governance connecting the different user groups. Here, we have collated trends in human use of areas beyond national jurisdiction and offer a framework for, and examples of, unexpected dynamics relevant to living and non-living marine resources. Such an approach is necessary in order to begin to mobilize an adequate governance response to changing conditions and uses of areas beyond national jurisdiction. This governance response must be able to govern established or potential users, be flexible and adaptive in response to unexpected and unpredictable dynamics and be able to transform in the face of unpredictable future uses of this vast area. Here we present a set of institutional design principles as a first tentative step in this direction.

Keyword
High seas, Areas beyond national jurisdiction, Fisheries, Ocean governance, Marine ecosystems, Surprise
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Sustainability Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-107634 (URN)10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.012 (DOI)000340990400003 ()
Note

AuthorCount:10;

Available from: 2014-09-24 Created: 2014-09-22 Last updated: 2017-12-05Bibliographically approved
4. Radical futures for global fisheries: An imaginative narrative scenarios approach
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Radical futures for global fisheries: An imaginative narrative scenarios approach
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Scenarios are important tools in developing capacity for dealing with the unknown and unpredictable, as well as the unlikely but possible. A range of scientific methods for developing scenarios is available, but we argue that they have limited capacity to investigate complex social-ecological futures. We contend that for most scientific scenarios 1) non-linear change is rarely incorporated and that 2) in attempting to engage with complexity they often fail to interest an audience outside of academia. This manuscript intends to address these two concerns, by drawing on narrative approaches to scenarios and applying the method of Science Fiction Prototyping. Using a rich and empirical scientific background on existing and emerging trends in marine natural resource use and dynamics, we develop four ‘radical’ futures for global fisheries. They are written for a wide audience and each was carefully designed to incorporate and extrapolate from existing environmental, technological, social and economic trends. We argue that Science Fiction Prototyping can complement existing methods for developing scenarios and can assist scientists in developing a holistic understanding of complex systems dynamics. This approach holds promise for making scenarios more accessible and interesting to non-academics and thus more useful in discussion on policy and governance questions in marine fisheries. 

Keyword
Scenarios, Futures, Global Change, methods, complex systems, social-ecological
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Sustainability Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-127625 (URN)
Funder
Mistra - The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research
Available from: 2016-03-09 Created: 2016-03-09 Last updated: 2016-03-10Bibliographically approved

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