Radical futures for global fisheries: An imaginative narrative scenarios approach
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Scenarios are important tools in developing capacity for dealing with the unknown and unpredictable, as well as the unlikely but possible. A range of scientific methods for developing scenarios is available, but we argue that they have limited capacity to investigate complex social-ecological futures. We contend that for most scientific scenarios 1) non-linear change is rarely incorporated and that 2) in attempting to engage with complexity they often fail to interest an audience outside of academia. This manuscript intends to address these two concerns, by drawing on narrative approaches to scenarios and applying the method of Science Fiction Prototyping. Using a rich and empirical scientific background on existing and emerging trends in marine natural resource use and dynamics, we develop four ‘radical’ futures for global fisheries. They are written for a wide audience and each was carefully designed to incorporate and extrapolate from existing environmental, technological, social and economic trends. We argue that Science Fiction Prototyping can complement existing methods for developing scenarios and can assist scientists in developing a holistic understanding of complex systems dynamics. This approach holds promise for making scenarios more accessible and interesting to non-academics and thus more useful in discussion on policy and governance questions in marine fisheries.
Scenarios, Futures, Global Change, methods, complex systems, social-ecological
Research subject Sustainability Science
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-127625OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-127625DiVA: diva2:910410
FunderMistra - The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research