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Radical futures for global fisheries: An imaginative narrative scenarios approach
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4036-3725
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Scenarios are important tools in developing capacity for dealing with the unknown and unpredictable, as well as the unlikely but possible. A range of scientific methods for developing scenarios is available, but we argue that they have limited capacity to investigate complex social-ecological futures. We contend that for most scientific scenarios 1) non-linear change is rarely incorporated and that 2) in attempting to engage with complexity they often fail to interest an audience outside of academia. This manuscript intends to address these two concerns, by drawing on narrative approaches to scenarios and applying the method of Science Fiction Prototyping. Using a rich and empirical scientific background on existing and emerging trends in marine natural resource use and dynamics, we develop four ‘radical’ futures for global fisheries. They are written for a wide audience and each was carefully designed to incorporate and extrapolate from existing environmental, technological, social and economic trends. We argue that Science Fiction Prototyping can complement existing methods for developing scenarios and can assist scientists in developing a holistic understanding of complex systems dynamics. This approach holds promise for making scenarios more accessible and interesting to non-academics and thus more useful in discussion on policy and governance questions in marine fisheries. 

Keyword [en]
Scenarios, Futures, Global Change, methods, complex systems, social-ecological
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Sustainability Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-127625OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-127625DiVA: diva2:910410
Funder
Mistra - The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research
Available from: 2016-03-09 Created: 2016-03-09 Last updated: 2016-03-10Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Global Ocean Futures: Governance of marine fisheries in the Anthropocene
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Global Ocean Futures: Governance of marine fisheries in the Anthropocene
2016 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This PhD thesis provides an analysis of how an adaptive governance approach can be applied to address existing and emerging challenges in global governance with a focus on marine, wild-capture fisheries. All the papers share a coupled social-ecological framing while providing diverse but complementary perspectives. Paper I provides a lens through which it is possible understand the types of interactions that link social and ecological components of fisheries systems at the global scale. The key result of this paper was the development of a marine social-ecological framework to guide future modelling and scenario analysis. Paper II describes the process of emergence and spread of new ideas in marine governance using Marine Spatial Planning as an illustrative case study. The study shows how governance innovations may contribute to resolving the mismatches between the scale of ecological processes and the scale of governance of ecosystems. A key finding of the paper is the identification and explanation of the mechanisms by which informal networks of actors are able to influence the emergence and spread of new governance forms from the local to the global scale. Paper III focuses on governance of ocean areas beyond national jurisdiction. The key finding from this paper is the urgent need for existing and emerging governance institutions to build capacity for responding to the challenges facing governance of marine fisheries. These challenges arise from unexpected shifts in markets, technology and society. Paper IV develops a set of four imaginative but plausible ‘radical’ futures for global fisheries drawing on trends compiled from a diverse evidence base. The four resulting narratives aim to act as lenses for engaging debate and deeper reflection on how non-linear changes in technology and society might radically shift the operating context and core assumptions of fisheries governance in the future. These papers make a novel contribution to Sustainability Science through their focus on 1) the conditions for, and mechanisms of emergence of diverse and divergent governance forms, 2) the role of agency in complex actor settings, 3) the need for governance institutions to not only deal with, but also be able to anticipate surprise, and 4) the development of scenarios of marine social-ecological futures using a creative and rigorous narrative approach.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 2016. 70 p.
Keyword
fisheries, futures, global governance, marine ecosystems, scenarios, social-ecological system
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Sustainability Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-127618 (URN)978-91-7649-347-2 (ISBN)
Public defence
2016-04-08, Gröjersalen, hus 3, Kräftriket, Roslagsvägen 101, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Mistra - The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research
Note

At the time of the doctoral defense, the following paper was unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 4: Manuscript.

Available from: 2016-03-16 Created: 2016-03-08 Last updated: 2016-03-14Bibliographically approved

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Merrie, AndrewKeys, PatrickÖsterblom, Henrik
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