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Model estimates of the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea in the contemporary and future climate
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Number of Authors: 7
2016 (English)In: Oceanology (Washington. 1965), ISSN 0001-4370, E-ISSN 0001-4370, Vol. 56, no 1, 36-45 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The St. Petersburg Baltic eutrophication model (SPBEM) is used to assess the ecological condition of the sea under possible changes in climate and nutrient loads in the 21st century. According to model estimates, in the future climate water quality will worsen, compared to modern conditions. This deterioration is stronger in the climate warming scenario with a stronger change in future near-surface air temperature. In the considered scenarios of climate change, climate warming will lead to an increase in the area of anoxic and hypoxic zones. Reduction of nutrient loading, estimated in accordance with the Baltic Sea Action Plan, will only be able to partially compensate for the negative effects of global warming.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 56, no 1, 36-45 p.
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-130017DOI: 10.1134/S0001437016010161ISI: 000373643300006OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-130017DiVA: diva2:927052
Available from: 2016-05-10 Created: 2016-05-09 Last updated: 2016-07-05Bibliographically approved

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Savchuk, Oleg P.
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Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre
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