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Comparing global precipitation data sets in eastern Africa: a case study of Kilombero Valley, Tanzania
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
Number of Authors: 3
2016 (English)In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 36, no 4, 2000-2014 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In the face of limited or no precipitation data, global precipitation data sets (GPDs) may provide a viable alternative to gauge or ground radar data. This study aims to provide guidance to the choice of GPDs targeting scales relevant to water resources management in data poor regions. Specifically, the 34 000 km(2) Kilombero Valley in central Tanzania, where water resource management is seen as integral to poverty reduction and food security, is used as a case study for performance evaluation of seven GPDs and their ensemble mean against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) multi-satellite precipitation analysis research-grade product v7 (TRMMv7). The GPDs include one satellite rainfall product [Climate Prediction Center morphing technique v1.0 CRT (CMORPH)], three reanalysis products [Climate Forecasting System Reanalysis (CFSR), European reanalysis interim (ERA-i) and Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA)] and three interpolated data sets [Climate Research Unit Time Series 3.21 (CRU), Global Precipitation and Climatology Center v6 data set (GPCC) and University of Delaware Air Temperature and Precipitation v3.01 data set (UDEL)]. Standard statistical performance measures and spatial patterns were evaluated for the common overlap time period 1998-2010. For this region, the principal seasonality of the climatology was well represented in all GPDs; however, the intraseasonal variability and the spatial precipitation patterns were less well represented. The ensemble mean and GPCC had the best performance with regard to the analysis of the time series while CMORPH and GPCC had the best performance with regard to the spatial pattern analysis. These results indicate that the spatial scale intended for application is a major factor impacting the suitability of a given GPD for hydrometrological studies that form a basis for development of water management strategies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 36, no 4, 2000-2014 p.
Keyword [en]
climate, evaluation, Kilombero Valley, reanalysis, satellite rainfall product, Tanzania, TRMM, water resource management
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Physical Geography
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-129198DOI: 10.1002/joc.4476ISI: 000372036800032OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-129198DiVA: diva2:935116
Available from: 2016-06-10 Created: 2016-04-17 Last updated: 2017-05-08Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Building a coherent hydro-climatic modelling framework for the data limited Kilombero Valley of Tanzania
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Building a coherent hydro-climatic modelling framework for the data limited Kilombero Valley of Tanzania
2017 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis explores key aspects for synthesizing data across spatiotemporal scales relevant for water resources management in an Eastern Africa context. Specifically, the potential of large scale global precipitation datasets (GPDs) in data limited regions to overcome spatial and temporal data gaps is considered. The thesis also explores the potential to utilize limited and non-continuous streamflow and stream water chemistry observations to increase hydrological process understanding. The information gained is then used to build a coherent hydro-climatic framework for streamflow modelling. In this thesis, Kilombero Valley Drainage Basin (KVDB) in Tanzania is used as an example of a data limited region targeted for rapid development, intensification and expansion of agriculture. As such, it is representative for many regions across the Eastern Africa. With regards to the data synthesis, two satellite products, three reanalysis products and three interpolated products were evaluated based on their spatial and temporal precipitation patterns. Streamflow data from KVDB and eight subcatchments were then assessed for quality with regards to missing data. Furthermore, recession analysis was used to estimate catchment-scale characteristic drainage timescale. Results from these streamflow analyses, in conjunction with a hydrological tracer-based analysis, were then used for improved understanding of streamflow generation in the region. Finally, a coherent modelling framework using the HBV rainfall-runoff model was implemented and evaluated based on daily streamflow simulation. Despite the challenges of data limited regions and the often large uncertainty in results, this thesis demonstrates that improved process understanding could be obtained from limited streamflow records and a focused hydrochemical sampling when experimental design natural variability were leveraged to gain a large  signal to noise ratio. Combining results across all investigations rendered information useful for the conceptualization and implementation of the hydro-climatic modelling framework relevant in Kilombero Valley. For example, when synthesized into a coherent framework the GPDs could be downscaled and used for daily streamflow simulations at the catchment scale with moderate success. This is promising when considering the need for estimating impacts of potential future land use and climate change as well as agricultural intensification.

Abstract [sv]

Denna avhandling utforskar aspekter på att syntetisera data med olika rumslig och temporal upplösning, vilket är centralt för vattenförvaltning i östra Afrika. Särskilt fokus ligger på att undersöka möjligheten till att använda globala nederbördsdataset för att fylla rumsliga och temporala luckor där data saknas. Avhandlingen undersökeräven möjligheten till att använda flödesdata med icke-kompletta tidsserier samt kemidata från vattendrag för att utöka kunskap-en om hydrologiska processer. Informationen används för att bygga upp ett integrerande ram-verk för hydro-klimatologisk modellering som exempelvis kan användas för att utforska ef-fekten av ett utökat och intensifierat jordburk på vattenresurser. I denna avhandling användes Kilomberodalens avrinningsområde (Tanzania) som exempel på ett databegränsat område där det pågår en intensiv utökning av jordbruksverksamhet. Detta område kan ses som representa-tivt för ett stort antal områden inom östra Afrika.Datasyntesen innefattade två nederbördsprodukter baserade på satellitdata, tre baserade på återanalysprodukter samt två baserade på interpolering av observervationsdata från regnmä-tare. Dessa åtta produkter utvärderades baserat på deras nederbördsmönster i rum och tid. Ut-över detta utvärderades vattenföringsdata från Kilomberodalens avrinningsområde samt åtta delavrinningsområden utifrån mängden saknad data i respektive tidsserie. Vidare användes resultaten från hydrologisk recessionsanalysför att uppskatta den karaktäristiska avrinningsti-den för avrinningsområden. Resultaten från recessionsanalysensamthydrologiskt spårämnes-försök användessedan för att utöka kunskapen om avrinningsbildning och vattenföring i om-rådet samt som stöd i valet av hydrologiskt modelleringsverktyg. Avslutningsvis användes HBV-avrinningsmodellen för att simulera daglig vattenföring. Trots utmaningen i att arbeta iett databegränsat område och de osäkerheter i resultat som detta tenderar att leda till visar resultaten att det var möjligt att använda begränsad vattenfö-ringsdata och vattenkemidata för att utöka den hydrologiska processförståelsen av området. Detta möjliggjordes genom ett experimentellt upplägg som utnyttjade till ett stort signal-till-brusförhållande under rådande förhållanden av naturlig variabilitet. Kombinerade resultat från alla genomförda studier kunde utnyttjas vid konceptualiseringen och implementeringen av ramverket för hydroklimatologisk modellering av Kilomberodalens avrinningsområde. Till exempel kunde de globala nederbördsdataseten användas för lokal modellering av flödesdata med viss framgång efter syntes och implementering i det integrerande ramverket för hydro-klimatologisk modellering. Detta är lovande med tanke på behovet av att undersöka vilken påverkan möjliga framtida förändringar i markanvändning, klimat samt jordbruk har på den lokala och regionala miljön.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Stockholm University, 2017. 44 p.
Series
Dissertations from the Department of Physical Geography, ISSN 1653-7211 ; 63
Keyword
Hydrology, Precipitation, Recession analysis, End - member mixing analysis, EMMA, GLUE, HBV, down scaling, Quantile mapping, CFSR, CMORPH, CRU, GPCC, ERA - i, MERRA, TRMM, UDEL, Satellite, Reanalysis, Kilombero, Tanzania, Eastern Africa, Africa
National Category
Physical Geography
Research subject
Physical Geography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-142201 (URN)978-91-7649-844-6 (ISBN)978-91-7649-845-3 (ISBN)
Public defence
2017-06-09, De Geersalen, Geovetenskapens hus, Svante Arrhenius väg 14, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Sida - Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, SWE-2011-066Sida - Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, 2015-000032Lars Hierta Memorial Foundation, grant FO2015-0569
Note

At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 3: Manuscript. Paper 4: Manuscript.

Available from: 2017-05-17 Created: 2017-04-27 Last updated: 2017-05-23Bibliographically approved

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