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Exploring methods for predicting multiple pressures on ecosystem recovery: A case study on marine eutrophication and fisheries
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
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Number of Authors: 7
2016 (English)In: Continental Shelf Research, ISSN 0278-4343, E-ISSN 1873-6955, Vol. 121, 48-60 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Efforts to attain good environmental status in the marine realm require decisions which cannot be done without knowledge of effects of different management measures. Given the wide diversity of marine ecosystems, multitude of pressures affecting it and the still poor understanding on linkages between those, there are likely no models available to give all the required answers. Hence, several separate approaches can be used in parallel to give support for management measures. We tested three completely different methods - a spatial impact index, a food web model and a Bayesian expert method. We found that a large uncertainty existed regarding the ecosystem response to the management scenarios, and that the three different modelling approaches complemented each other. The models indicated that in order to reach an improved overall state of the ecosystem nutrient reductions are the more effective of the two management variables explored, and that cumulative effects of the management of nutrient inputs and fishing mortality are likely to exist.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 121, 48-60 p.
Keyword [en]
Cumulative effects, Fishing, Management, Modelling, Nutrient input, Pressures
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-132406DOI: 10.1016/j.csr.2015.11.002ISI: 000378193500006OAI: diva2:952366
Aquatic Sciences Meeting of the Association-for-the-Sciences-of-Limnology-and-Oceanography (ASLO), Granada, Spain, February 22-27, 2015
Available from: 2016-08-12 Created: 2016-08-11 Last updated: 2016-08-12Bibliographically approved

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Niiranen, Susa
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Stockholm Resilience Centre
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