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  • 1. Brinka, Pedro
    et al.
    Holter, Hans A.
    Krusell, Per
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Malafry, Laurence
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Fiscal Multipliers in the 21st Century2016In: Journal of Monetary Economics, ISSN 0304-3932, E-ISSN 1873-1295, Vol. 77, p. 53-69Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Fiscal multipliers appear to vary greatly over time and space. Based on VARs for a large number of countries, we document a strong correlation between wealth inequality and the magnitude of fiscal multipliers. In an attempt to account for this finding, we develop a life-cycle, overlapping-generations economy with uninsurable labor market risk. We calibrate our model to match key characteristics of a number of OECD economies, including the distribution of wages and wealth, social security, taxes, and government debt and study how a fiscal multiplier depends on various country characteristics. We find that the fiscal multiplier is highly sensitive to the fraction of the population who face binding credit constraints and also to the average wealth level in the economy. These findings together help us generate a cross-country pattern of multipliers that is quite similar to that in the data.

  • 2.
    Broer, Tobias
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Domestic or global imbalances?: Rising income risk and the fall in the US current account2014In: Journal of Monetary Economics, ISSN 0304-3932, E-ISSN 1873-1295, Vol. 64, p. 47-67Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    When default leads to exclusion from financial markets, the implied loss of consumption smoothing opportunities is more costly when income volatility is high. A rise in income risk thus makes default less attractive, allowing creditors to relax borrowing limits. I show how, in an open economy, this endogenous financial deepening may reduce aggregate foreign assets in response to a rise in individual income risk, against the precautionary savings intuition. Conditions for this depend on whether default constrains complete or uncontingent contracts. The post-1980 rise in US household income risk strongly reduces foreign assets when domestic markets are complete or world interest rates low.

  • 3. Gonzalez-Eiras, Martìn
    et al.
    Niepelt, Dirk
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    The Future of Social Security2008In: Journal of Monetary Economics, ISSN 0304-3932, E-ISSN 1873-1295, Vol. 55, no 2, p. 197-218Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We analyze the effect of the projected demographic transition on the political support for social security, and equilibrium outcomes. Embedding a probabilistic-voting setup of electoral competition in the standard OLG model with capital accumulation, we find that intergenerational transfers arise in the absence of altruism, commitment, or trigger strategies. Closed-form solutions predict population ageing to lead to higher social security tax rates, a rising share of pensions in GDP, but eventually lower social security benefits per retiree. The response of equilibrium tax rates to demographic shocks reduces old-age consumption risk. Calibrated to match features of the U.S. economy, the model suggests that, in response to the projected demographic transition, social security tax rates will gradually increase to 16%. Other policies that distort labor supply will become less important; labor supply therefore will rise, in contrast with frequently voiced fears.

  • 4. Hagedorn, Marcus
    et al.
    Luo, Jinfeng
    Manovskii, Iourii
    Mitman, Kurt
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies. Centre for Economic Policy Research, UK.
    Forward guidance2019In: Journal of Monetary Economics, ISSN 0304-3932, E-ISSN 1873-1295, Vol. 102, p. 1-23Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We assess the power of forward guidance promises about future interest rates as a monetary tool in a liquidity trap using a quantitative incomplete-markets model. Our results suggest the effects of forward guidance are negligible. A commitment to keep future nominal interest rates low for a few quarters although macro indicators suggest otherwise has only trivial effects on current output and employment. We explain theoretically why in complete markets models forward guidance is powerful generating a forward guidance puzzle and why this puzzle disappears in our model. We also clarify theoretically ambiguous conclusions from previous research  about the effectiveness of forward guidance in incomplete and complete markets models.

  • 5.
    Hassler, John
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Sinn, Hans-Werner
    The fossil episode2016In: Journal of Monetary Economics, ISSN 0304-3932, E-ISSN 1873-1295, Vol. 83, p. 14-26Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Agriculture sector output (biocarbon) is a good substitute for oil in energy production but oil cannot be used as food. This one-way substitutability is analyzed in a dynamic general equilibrium model. It features three endogenous phases: a pure fossil, a mixed fossil and biocarbon and an absorbing biocarbon fuel only phase. In the latter two, the demand for biocarbon as fuel leads to increasing food prices. Depending on how easily capital and labor can reallocate, food prices increase by between 40% and 240%. The model is also used to analyze climate consequences of biocarbon fuel polices and of the shale revolution.

  • 6.
    Klein, Paul
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Ventura, Gustavo
    Productivity differences and the dynamic effects of labor movements2009In: Journal of Monetary Economics, ISSN 0304-3932, E-ISSN 1873-1295, Vol. 56, no 8, p. 1059-1073Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Barriers to labor mobility across countries coexist with substantial differences in living standards largely attributable to productivity differences. A growth model with endogenous labor movements is used to assess the effects on output, capital accumulation and welfare of removing barriers to labor mobility. The model is parameterized so that it is consistent with evidence on historical labor movements, and is applied to two cases: the enlargement of the European Union and the (hypothetical) creation of a common labor market in the North America. The main finding is that there are large resulting gains in terms Of Output and welfare. 

  • 7.
    Krusell, Per
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies. University of Gothenburg, Sweden; NBER, United States; CEPR, United Kingdom.
    Rudanko, Leena
    Unions in a frictional labor market2016In: Journal of Monetary Economics, ISSN 0304-3932, E-ISSN 1873-1295, Vol. 80, p. 35-50Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A labor market with search and matching frictions, where wage setting is controlled by a monopoly union that follows a norm of wage solidarity, is found vulnerable to substantial distortions associated with holdup. With full commitment to future wages, the union achieves efficient hiring in the long run, but hikes up wages in the short run to appropriate rents from firms. Without commitment, in a Markov-perfect equilibrium, hiring is too low both in the short and the long run. The quantitative impact is demonstrated in an extended model with partial union coverage and multiperiod union contracting.

  • 8.
    Mitman, Kurt
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Rabinovich, Stanislav
    Optimal unemployment insurance in an equilibrium business-cycle model2015In: Journal of Monetary Economics, ISSN 0304-3932, E-ISSN 1873-1295, Vol. 71, p. 99-118Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The optimal cyclical behavior of unemployment insurance is characterized in an equilibrium search model with risk-averse workers. Contrary to the current US policy, the path of optimal unemployment benefits is pro-cyclical - positively correlated with productivity and employment. Furthermore, optimal unemployment benefits react non-monotonically to a productivity shock: in response to a fall in productivity, they rise on impact but then fall significantly below their pre-recession level during the recovery. As compared to the current US unemployment insurance policy, the optimal state-contingent unemployment benefits smooth cyclical fluctuations in unemployment and deliver substantial welfare gains.

  • 9.
    Olovsson, Conny
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Quantifying the risk-sharing welfare gains of social security2010In: Journal of Monetary Economics, ISSN 0304-3932, E-ISSN 1873-1295, Vol. 57, no 3, p. 364-375Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The welfare effects of intergenerational risk sharing through a pay-as-you-go social security system that is efficiently indexed to wages or interest rates are quantified. Comparing steady states, there are large welfare gains of being born into an economy with efficient risk sharing as compared to the current U.S. system. Efficient policy involves an increasingly risky net of tax income over the life cycle. When adjustment to steady state is taken into account, the welfare gains largely turn negative. The results are also compared and contrasted to the first best allocation.

  • 10.
    Sigurdsson, Josef
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    Sigurdardottir, Rannveig
    Time-dependent or state-dependent wage-setting? Evidence from periods of macroeconomic instability2016In: Journal of Monetary Economics, ISSN 0304-3932, E-ISSN 1873-1295, Vol. 78, p. 50-66Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Administrative data on monthly wages in Iceland during 1998-2010 provide new insight into nominal wage rigidity. Unlike the data used in previous work, ours have a higher frequency, minimal measurement error, and a long sample including a period of substantial macroeconomic instability. We find that the monthly frequency of nominal wage changes is 13 percent. Although nominal wage cuts are rare, their frequency rises following a large macroeconomic shock. Timing of wage changes is both time-dependent and state-dependent: we find evidence of synchronization of adjustment and contracts of fixed duration, but also that inflation and unemployment over the wage spell affect the timing of adjustment.

  • 11.
    Söderberg, Johan
    Department of Economics, Uppsala University.
    Customer Markets and the Welfare Effects of Monetary Policy2011In: Journal of Monetary Economics, ISSN 0304-3932, E-ISSN 1873-1295, Vol. 58, p. 206-219Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A customer market model in which firms and customers form long-term relations is developed and integrated into the canonical New Keynesian framework. This leads to two important differences compared to the standard model. First, the purely forward-looking Phillips curve is replaced by a hybrid variant where current inflation also depends on past inflation. Second, the welfare cost of inflation is much lower, which leads to an optimal monetary policy where relatively more weight is put on output gap stabilization than previously found in the literature.

  • 12.
    Yazici, Hakki
    et al.
    Sabanci University, Istanbul, Turkiet.
    Slavik, Ctirad
    Machines, Buildings, and Optimal Dynamic Taxes2014In: Journal of Monetary Economics, ISSN 0304-3932, E-ISSN 1873-1295, Vol. 66, p. 47-61Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The effective taxes on capital returns differ depending on capital type in the U.S. tax code. This paper uncovers a novel reason for the optimality of differential capital taxation. We set up a model with two types of capital – equipments and structures – and equipment-skill complementarity. Under a plausible assumption, we show that it is optimal to tax equipments at a higher rate than structures. In a calibrated model, the optimal tax differential rises from 27 to 40 percentage points over the transition to the new steady state. The welfare gains of optimal differential capital taxation can be as high as 0.4% of lifetime consumption

1 - 12 of 12
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