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  • 1. Abbott, Benjamin W.
    et al.
    Jones, Jeremy B.
    Schuur, Edward A. G.
    Chapin, F. Stuart
    Bowden, William B.
    Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia
    Epstein, Howard E.
    Flannigan, Michael D.
    Harms, Tamara K.
    Hollingsworth, Teresa N.
    Mack, Michelle C.
    McGuire, A. David
    Natali, Susan M.
    Rocha, Adrian V.
    Tank, Suzanne E.
    Turetsky, Merritt R.
    Vonk, Jorien E.
    Wickland, Kimberly P.
    Aiken, George R.
    Alexander, Heather D.
    Amon, Rainer M. W.
    Benscoter, Brian W.
    Bergeron, Yves
    Bishop, Kevin
    Blarquez, Olivier
    Bond-Lamberty, Ben
    Breen, Amy L.
    Buffam, Ishi
    Cai, Yihua
    Carcaillet, Christopher
    Carey, Sean K.
    Chen, Jing M.
    Chen, Han Y. H.
    Christensen, Torben R.
    Cooper, Lee W.
    Cornelissen, J. Hans C.
    de Groot, William J.
    DeLuca, Thomas H.
    Dorrepaal, Ellen
    Fetcher, Ned
    Finlay, Jacques C.
    Forbes, Bruce C.
    French, Nancy H. F.
    Gauthier, Sylvie
    Girardin, Martin P.
    Goetz, Scott J.
    Goldammer, Johann G.
    Gough, Laura
    Grogan, Paul
    Guo, Laodong
    Higuera, Philip E.
    Hinzman, Larry
    Hu, Feng Sheng
    Hugelius, Gustaf
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Jafarov, Elchin E.
    Jandt, Randi
    Johnstone, Jill F.
    Karlsson, Jan
    Kasischke, Eric S.
    Kattner, Gerhard
    Kelly, Ryan
    Keuper, Frida
    Kling, George W.
    Kortelainen, Pirkko
    Kouki, Jari
    Kuhry, Peter
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Laudon, Hjalmar
    Laurion, Isabelle
    Macdonald, Robie W.
    Mann, Paul J.
    Martikainen, Pertti J.
    McClelland, James W.
    Molau, Ulf
    Oberbauer, Steven F.
    Olefeldt, David
    Pare, David
    Parisien, Marc-Andre
    Payette, Serge
    Peng, Changhui
    Pokrovsky, Oleg S.
    Rastetter, Edward B.
    Raymond, Peter A.
    Raynolds, Martha K.
    Rein, Guillermo
    Reynolds, James F.
    Robards, Martin
    Rogers, Brendan M.
    Schaedel, Christina
    Schaefer, Kevin
    Schmidt, Inger K.
    Shvidenko, Anatoly
    Sky, Jasper
    Spencer, Robert G. M.
    Starr, Gregory
    Striegl, Robert G.
    Teisserenc, Roman
    Tranvik, Lars J.
    Virtanen, Tarmo
    Welker, Jeffrey M.
    Zimov, Sergei
    Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment2016In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 11, no 3, article id 034014Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

  • 2. Alborzi, Aneseh
    et al.
    Mirchi, Ali
    Moftakhari, Hamed
    Mallakpour, Iman
    Alian, Sara
    Nazemi, Ali
    Hassanzadeh, Elmira
    Mazdiyasni, Omid
    Ashraf, Samaneh
    Madani, Kaveh
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Imperial College London, United Kingdom.
    Norouzi, Hamid
    Azarderakhsh, Marzi
    Mehran, Ali
    Sadegh, Mojtaba
    Castelletti, Andrea
    AghaKouchak, Amir
    Climate-informed environmental inflows to revive a drying lake facing meteorological and anthropogenic droughts2018In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, no 8, article id 084010Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The rapid shrinkage of Lake Urmia, one of the world's largest saline lakes located in northwestern Iran, is a tragic wake-up call to revisit the principles of water resources management based on the socio-economic and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. The overarching goal of this paper is to set a framework for deriving dynamic, climate-informed environmental inflows for drying lakes considering both meteorological/climatic and anthropogenic conditions. We report on the compounding effects of meteorological drought and unsustainable water resource management that contributed to Lake Urmia's contemporary environmental catastrophe. Using rich datasets of hydrologic attributes, water demands and withdrawals, as well as water management infrastructure (i.e. reservoir capacity and operating policies), we provide a quantitative assessment of the basin's water resources, demonstrating that Lake Urmia reached a tipping point in the early 2000s. The lake level failed to rebound to its designated ecological threshold (1274 m above sea level) during a relatively normal hydro-period immediately after the drought of record (1998-2002). The collapse was caused by a marked overshoot of the basin's hydrologic capacity due to growing anthropogenic drought in the face of extreme climatological stressors. We offer a dynamic environmental inflow plan for different climate conditions (dry, wet and near normal), combined with three representative water withdrawal scenarios. Assuming effective implementation of the proposed 40% reduction in the current water withdrawals, the required environmental inflows range from 2900 million cubic meters per year (mcm yr(-1)) during dry conditions to 5400 mcm yr(-1) during wet periods with the average being 4100 mcm yr(-1). Finally, for different environmental inflow scenarios, we estimate the expected recovery time for re-establishing the ecological level of Lake Urmia.

  • 3. Anderies, J. M.
    et al.
    Carpenter, S. R.
    Steffen, Will
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Australian National University, Australia.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    The topology of non-linear global carbon dynamics: from tipping points to planetary boundaries2013In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 8, no 4, p. 044048-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We present a minimal model of land use and carbon cycle dynamics and use it to explore the relationship between non-linear dynamics and planetary boundaries. Only the most basic interactions between land cover and terrestrial, atmospheric, and marine carbon stocks are considered in the model. Our goal is not to predict global carbon dynamics as it occurs in the actual Earth System. Rather, we construct a conceptually reasonable heuristic model of a feedback system between different carbon stocks that captures the qualitative features of the actual Earth System and use it to explore the topology of the boundaries of what can be called a 'safe operating space' for humans. The model analysis illustrates the existence of dynamic, non-linear tipping points in carbon cycle dynamics and the potential complexity of planetary boundaries. Finally, we use the model to illustrate some challenges associated with navigating planetary boundaries.

  • 4. Azcárate, Juan
    et al.
    Balfors, Berit
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Strategic environmental assessment and monitoring: Arctic key gaps and bridging pathways2013In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 8, no 4, article id 044033Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Arctic region undergoes rapid and unprecedented environmental change. Environmental assessment and monitoring is needed to understand and decide how to mitigate and/or adapt to the changes and their impacts on society and ecosystems. This letter analyzes the application of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and the monitoring, based on environmental observations, that should be part of SEA, elucidates main gaps in both, and proposes an overarching SEA framework to systematically link and improve both with focus on the rapidly changing Arctic region. Shortcomings in the monitoring of environmental change are concretized by examples of main gaps in the observations of Arctic hydroclimatic changes. For relevant identification and efficient reduction of such gaps and remaining uncertainties under typical conditions of limited monitoring resources, the proposed overarching framework for SEA application includes components for explicit gap/uncertainty handling and monitoring, systematically integrated within all steps of the SEA process. The framework further links to adaptive governance, which should explicitly consider key knowledge and information gaps that are identified through and must be handled in the SEA process, and accordingly (re)formulate and promote necessary new or modified monitoring objectives for bridging these gaps. 

  • 5. Balbi, Stefano
    et al.
    Selomane, Odirilwe
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, South Africa.
    Sitas, Nadia
    Blanchard, Ryan
    Kotzee, Ilse
    O'Farrell, Patrick
    Villa, Ferdinando
    Human dependence on natural resources in rapidly urbanising South African regions2019In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, no 4, article id 044008Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Enhancing the governance of social-ecological systems for more equitable and sustainable development is hindered by inadequate knowledge about how different social groups and communities rely on natural resources. We used openly accessible national survey data to develop a metric of overall dependence on natural resources. These data contain information about households' sources of water, energy, building materials and food. We used these data in combination with Bayesian learning to model observed patterns of dependence using demographic variables that included: gender of household head, household size, income, house ownership, formality status of settlement, population density, and in-migration rate to the area. We show that a small number of factors-in particular population density and informality of settlements-can explain a significant amount of the observed variation with regards to the use of natural resources. Subsequently, we test the validity of these predictions using alternative, open access data in the eThekwini and Cape Town metropolitan areas of South Africa. We discuss the advantages of using a selection of predictors which could be supplied through remotely sensed and open access data, in terms of opportunities and challenges to produce meaningful results in data-poor areas. With data availability being a common limiting factor in modelling and monitoring exercises, access to inexpensive, up-to-date and free to use data can significantly improve how we monitor progress towards sustainability targets. A small selection of openly accessible demographic variables can predict household's dependence on local natural resources.

  • 6. Bergström, Lena
    et al.
    Kautsky, Lena
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Malm, Torleif
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Rosenberg, Rutger
    Wahlberg, Magnus
    Capetillo, Nastassja Åstrand
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Wilhelmsson, Dan
    Effects of offshore wind farms on marine wildlife-a generalized impact assessment2014In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 9, no 3, p. 034012-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Marine management plans over the world express high expectations to the development of offshore wind energy. This would obviously contribute to renewable energy production, but potential conflicts with other usages of the marine landscape, as well as conservation interests, are evident. The present study synthesizes the current state of understanding on the effects of offshore wind farms on marine wildlife, in order to identify general versus local conclusions in published studies. The results were translated into a generalized impact assessment for coastal waters in Sweden, which covers a range of salinity conditions from marine to nearly fresh waters. Hence, the conclusions are potentially applicable to marine planning situations in various aquatic ecosystems. The assessment considered impact with respect to temporal and spatial extent of the pressure, effect within each ecosystem component, and level of certainty. Research on the environmental effects of offshore wind farms has gone through a rapid maturation and learning process, with the bulk of knowledge being developed within the past ten years. The studies showed a high level of consensus with respect to the construction phase, indicating that potential impacts on marine life should be carefully considered in marine spatial planning. Potential impacts during the operational phase were more locally variable, and could be either negative or positive depending on biological conditions as well as prevailing management goals. There was paucity in studies on cumulative impacts and long-term effects on the food web, as well as on combined effects with other human activities, such as the fisheries. These aspects remain key open issues for a sustainable marine spatial planning.

  • 7. Bolin, Karl
    et al.
    Bluhm, Gösta
    Eriksson, Gabriella
    Nilsson, Mats E.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology.
    Infrasound and low frequency noise from wind turbines: exposure and health effects2011In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 6, no 3, p. 035103-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Wind turbines emit low frequency noise (LFN) and large turbines generally generate more LFN than small turbines. The dominant source of LFN is the interaction between incoming turbulence and the blades. Measurements suggest that indoor levels of LFN in dwellings typically are within recommended guideline values, provided that the outdoor level does not exceed corresponding guidelines for facade exposure. Three cross-sectional questionnaire studies show that annoyance from wind turbine noise is related to the immission level, but several explanations other than low frequency noise are probable. A statistically significant association between noise levels and self-reported sleep disturbance was found in two of the three studies. It has been suggested that LFN from wind turbines causes other, and more serious, health problems, but empirical support for these claims is lacking.

  • 8. Bruckner, Martin
    et al.
    Häyhä, Tiina
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
    Giljum, Stefan
    Maus, Victor
    Fischer, Günther
    Tramberend, Sylvia
    Börner, Jan
    Quantifying the global cropland footprint of the European Union's non-food bioeconomy2019In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, no 4, article id 045011Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A rapidly growing share of global agricultural areas is devoted to the production of biomass for non-food purposes. The expanding non-food bioeconomy can have far-reaching social and ecological implications; yet, the non-food sector has attained little attention in land footprint studies. This paper provides the first assessment of the global cropland footprint of non-food products of the European Union (EU), a globally important region regarding its expanding bio-based economy. We apply a novel hybrid land flow accounting model, combining the biophysical trade model LANDFLOW with the multi-regional input-output model EXIOBASE. The developed hybrid approach improves the level of product and country detail, while comprehensively covering all global supply chains from agricultural production to final consumption, including highly processed products, such as many non-food products. The results highlight the EU's role as a major processing and the biggest consuming region of cropland-based non-food products, while at the same time relying heavily on imports. Two thirds of the cropland required to satisfy the EU's non-food biomass consumption are located in other world regions, particularly in China, the US and Indonesia, giving rise to potential impacts on distant ecosystems. With almost 39% in 2010, oilseeds used to produce for example biofuels, detergents and polymers represented the dominant share of the EU's non-food cropland demand. Traditional non-food biomass uses, such as fibre crops for textiles and animal hides and skins for leather products, also contributed notably (22%). Our findings suggest that if the EU Bioeconomy Strategy is to support global sustainable development, a detailed monitoring of land use displacement and spillover effects is decisive for targeted and effective EU policy making.

  • 9. Budhavant, Krishnakant
    et al.
    Andersson, August
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Bosch, Carme
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Kruså, Martin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Kirillova, E. N.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Sheesley, R. J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Safai, P. D.
    Rao, P. S. P.
    Gustafsson, Örjan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Radiocarbon-based source apportionment of elemental carbon aerosols at two South Asian receptor observatories over a full annual cycle2015In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 10, no 6, article id 064004Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Black carbon (BC) aerosols impact climate and air quality. Since BC from fossil versus biomass combustion have different optical properties and different abilities to penetrate the lungs, it is important to better understand their relative contributions in strongly affected regions such as South Asia. This study reports the first year-round C-14-based source apportionment of elemental carbon (EC), the mass-based correspondent to BC, using as regional receptor sites the international Maldives Climate Observatory in Hanimaadhoo (MCOH) and the mountaintop observatory of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Sinhagad, India (SINH). For the highly-polluted winter season (December-March), the fractional contribution to EC from biomass burning (f(bio)) was 53 +/- 5% (n = 6) atMCOHand 56 +/- 3% at SINH (n = 5). The f(bio) for the non-winter remainder was 53 +/- 11% (n = 6) atMCOHand 48 +/- 8%(n = 7) at SINH. This observation-based constraint on near-equal contributions from biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion at both sites compare with predictions from eight technology-based emission inventory (EI) models for India of (f(bio)) EI spanning 55-88%, suggesting that most current EI for Indian BC systematically under predict the relative contribution of fossil fuel combustion. Acontinued iterative testing of bottom-up EI with top-down observational source constraints has the potential to lead to reduced uncertainties regarding EC sources and emissions to the benefit of both models of climate and air quality as well as guide efficient policies to mitigate emissions.

  • 10. Büntgen, Ulf
    et al.
    Oliach, Daniel
    Martínez-Peña, Fernando
    Latorre, Joaquin
    Egli, Simon
    Krusic, Paul J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. University of Cambridge, United Kingdom.
    Black truffle winter production depends on Mediterranean summer precipitation2019In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, no 7, article id 074004Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The unprecedented price inflation of Black truffles, recently exceeding 5000 Euro kg(-1) (in Zurich), is a combined result of increasing global demands and decreasing Mediterranean harvests. Since the effects of long-term irrigation and climate variation on symbiotic fungus-host interaction and the development of belowground microbes are poorly understood, the establishment and maintenance of truffle plantations remains a risky venture. Using 49 years of continuous harvest and climate data from Spain, France and Italy, we demonstrate how truffle production rates, between November and March, significantly rely on previous June-August precipitation totals, whereas too much autumnal rainfall affects the subsequent winter harvest negatively. Despite a complex climate-host-fungus relationship, our findings show that southern European truffle yields can be predicted at highest probability (r = 0.78, t-stat = 5.645, prob = 0.000 01). Moreover, we demonstrate the reliability of national truffle inventories since 1970, and question the timing and dose of many of the currently operating irrigation systems. Finally, our results suggest that Black truffle mycorrhizal colonization of host fine roots, the sexualisation of mycelium, and the formation of peridium are strongly controlled by natural summer rainfall. Recognising the drought-vulnerability of southern Europe's rapidly growing truffle sector, we encourage a stronger liaison between farmers, politicians and scientists to maintain ecological and economic sustainability under predicted climate change in the Mediterranean basin.

  • 11.
    Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Humanities, Department of History. University of Cambridge, United Kingdom.
    Seim, Andrea
    Krusic, Paul J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. University of Cambridge, United Kingdom.
    González-Rouco, Jesús Fidel
    Werner, Johannes P.
    Cook, Edward R.
    Zorita, Eduardo
    Luterbacher, Jürg
    Xoplaki, Elena
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    García-Bustainante, Elena
    Aguilar, Camilo Andrés Melo
    Seftigen, Kristina
    Wang, Jianglin
    Gagen, Mary H.
    Esper, Jan
    Solomina, Olga
    Fleitmann, Dominik
    Büntgen, Ulf
    European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE2019In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, no 8, article id 084015Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The long-term relationship between temperature and hydroclimate has remained uncertain due to the short length of instrumental measurements and inconsistent results from climate model simulations. This lack of understanding is particularly critical with regard to projected drought and flood risks. Here we assess warm-season co-variability patterns between temperature and hydroclimate over Europe back to 850 CE using instrumental measurements, tree-ring based reconstructions, and climate model simulations. We find that the temperature-hydroclimate relationship in both the instrumental and reconstructed data turns more positive at lower frequencies, but less so in model simulations, with a dipole emerging between positive (warm and wet) and negative (warm and dry) associations in northern and southern Europe, respectively. Compared to instrumental data, models reveal a more negative co-variability across all timescales, while reconstructions exhibit a more positive co-variability. Despite the observed differences in the temperature-hydroclimate co-variability patterns in instrumental, reconstructed and model simulated data, we find that all data types share relatively similar phase-relationships between temperature and hydroclimate, indicating the common influence of external forcing. The co-variability between temperature and soil moisture in the model simulations is overestimated, implying a possible overestimation of temperature-driven future drought risks.

  • 12.
    Downing, Andrea S.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Bhowmik, Avit
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Collste, David
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Université Clermont Auvergne, France.
    Cornell, Sarah E.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Donges, Jonathan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.
    Fetzer, Ingo
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Häyhä, Tiina
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria.
    Hinton, Jennifer
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Université Clermont Auvergne, France.
    Lade, Steven
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Australian National University, Australia.
    Mooij, Wolf M.
    Matching scope, purpose and uses of planetary boundaries science2019In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, no 7, article id 073005Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: The Planetary Boundaries concept (PBc) has emerged as a key global sustainability concept in international sustainable development arenas. Initially presented as an agenda for global sustainability research, it now shows potential for sustainability governance. Weuse the fact that it is widely cited in scientific literature (>3500 citations) and an extensively studied concept to analyse how it has been used and developed since its first publication. Design: From the literature that cites the PBc, we select those articles that have the terms 'planetary boundaries' or 'safe operating space' in either title, abstract or keywords. Weassume that this literature substantively engages with and develops the PBc. Results: Wefind that 6% of the citing literature engages with the concept. Within this fraction of the literature we distinguish commentaries-that discuss the context and challenges to implementing the PBc, articles that develop the core biogeophysical concept and articles that apply the concept by translating to sub-global scales and by adding a human component to it. Applied literature adds to the concept by explicitly including society through perspectives of impacts, needs, aspirations and behaviours. Discussion: Literature applying the concept does not yet include the more complex, diverse, cultural and behavioural facet of humanity that is implied in commentary literature. Wesuggest there is need for a positive framing of sustainability goals-as a Safe Operating Space rather than boundaries. Key scientific challenges include distinguishing generalised from context-specific knowledge, clarifying which processes are generalizable and which are scalable, and explicitly applying complex systems' knowledge in the application and development of the PBc. We envisage that opportunities to address these challenges will arise when more human social dimensions are integrated, as we learn to feed the global sustainability vision with a plurality of bottom-up realisations of sustainability.

  • 13.
    Drury O'Neill, Elizabeth
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Crona, Beatrice
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Ferrer, Alice Joan G.
    Pomeroy, Robert
    From typhoons to traders: the role of patron-client relations in mediating fishery responses to natural disasters2019In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, no 4, article id 045015Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The majority of the world's fishers, fishworkers and their dependents live in coastal tropical areas that are, and will be, highly exposed to human-induced climate change. Projections indicate such change could result in coastal populations being more frequently and acutely impacted by natural disasters. Increasing aid interventions is a likely knock-on effect of such scenarios. How these external natural and social disturbances interact and affect local fisheries and small-scale producers is in part determined by the internal dynamics of the social-ecological system (SES). Economic vulnerability often characterizes communities in these settings and influences the means with which they navigate changes. The patron-client system is prolific in many rural economies and small-scale fisheries. It forms a central element in the organization of market interactions and often provides much needed finance for low-income households in place of formal options. How such injection of capital promotes individuals' ability to buffer income fluctuations at the expense of long-term sustainability of the broader fishery system is still an area in need of examination. This paper contributes to shed light on this issue by using a case study approach to trace the historical development of the fishery system in the Iloilo Province (Philippines) in relation to a major natural disaster-super-typhoon Haiyan, known locally as Yolanda-and the subsequent aid intervention that followed. The aim is to assess how the patron-client system filtered these two related disturbances and to highlight the resulting tensions between short-term individual resilience and longer-term SES sustainability.

  • 14.
    Gordon, Line J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Bignet, Victoria
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Crona, Beatrice
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Henriksson, Patrik J. G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. WorldFish, Penang, Malaysia.
    Van Holt, Tracy
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden; Center for Sustainable Business, United States of America.
    Jonell, Malin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Lindahl, Therese
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Troell, Max
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Barthel, Stephan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Gävle, Sweden.
    Deutsch, Lisa
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Haider, L. Jamila
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Queiroz, Cibele
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rewiring food systems to enhance human health and biosphere stewardship2017In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 12, no 10, article id 100201Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Food lies at the heart of both health and sustainability challenges. We use a social-ecological framework to illustrate how major changes to the volume, nutrition and safety of food systems between 1961 and today impact health and sustainability. These changes have almost halved undernutrition while doubling the proportion who are overweight. They have also resulted in reduced resilience of the biosphere, pushing four out of six analysed planetary boundaries across the safe operating space of the biosphere. Our analysis further illustrates that consumers and producers have become more distant from one another, with substantial power consolidated within a small group of key actors. Solutions include a shift from a volume-focused production system to focus on quality, nutrition, resource use efficiency, and reduced antimicrobial use. To achieve this, we need to rewire food systems in ways that enhance transparency between producers and consumers, mobilize key actors to become biosphere stewards, and re-connect people to the biosphere.

  • 15. Hellmann, Lena
    et al.
    Agafonov, Leonid
    Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Humanities, Department of History.
    Churakova (Sidorova), Olga
    Duethorn, Elisabeth
    Esper, Jan
    Hulsmann, Lisa
    Kirdyanov, Alexander V.
    Moiseev, Pavel
    Myglan, Vladimir S.
    Nikolaev, Anatoly N.
    Reinig, Frederick
    Schweingruber, Fritz H.
    Solomina, Olga
    Tegel, Willy
    Buntgen, Ulf
    Diverse growth trends and climate responses across Eurasia's boreal forest2016In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 11, no 7Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The area covered by boreal forests accounts for similar to 16% of the global and 22% of the Northern Hemisphere landmass. Changes in the productivity and functioning of this circumpolar biome not only have strong effects on species composition and diversity at regional to larger scales, but also on the Earth's carbon cycle. Although temporal inconsistency in the response of tree growth to temperature has been reported from some locations at the higher northern latitudes, a systematic dendroecological network assessment is still missing for most of the boreal zone. Here, we analyze the geographical patterns of changes in summer temperature and precipitation across northern Eurasia >60 degrees N since 1951 AD, as well as the growth trends and climate responses of 445 Pinus, Larix and Picea ring width chronologies in the same area and period. In contrast to widespread summer warming, fluctuations in precipitation and tree growth are spatially more diverse and overall less distinct. Although the influence of summer temperature on ring formation is increasing with latitude and distinct moisture effects are restricted to a few southern locations, growth sensitivity to June-July temperature variability is only significant at 16.6% of all sites (p <= 0.01). By revealing complex climate constraints on the productivity of Eurasia's northern forests, our results question the a priori suitability of boreal tree-ring width chronologies for reconstructing summer temperatures. This study further emphasizes regional climate differences and their role on the dynamics of boreal ecosystems, and also underlines the importance of free data access to facilitate the compilation and evaluation of massively replicated and updated dendroecological networks.

  • 16. Huang, Kaicheng
    et al.
    Yi, Chuixiang
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . City University of New York, USA.
    Wu, Donghai
    Zhou, Tao
    Zhao, Xiang
    Blanford, William J.
    Wei, Suhua
    Wu, Hao
    Ling, Du
    Li, Zheng
    Tipping point of a conifer forest ecosystem under severe drought2015In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 10, no 2, article id 024011Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Drought-induced tree mortality has recently received considerable attention. Questions have arisen over the necessary intensity and duration thresholds of droughts that are sufficient to trigger rapid forest declines. The values of such tipping points leading to forest declines due to drought are presently unknown. In this study, we have evaluated the potential relationship between the level of tree growth and concurrent drought conditions with data of the tree growth-related ring width index (RWI) of the two dominant conifer species (Pinus edulis and Pinus ponderosa) in the Southwestern United State  (SWUS) and the meteorological drought-related standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this effort, we determined the binned averages of RWI and the 11 month SPEI within the month of July within each bin of 30 of RWI in the range of 0–3000.Wefound a significant correlation between the binned averages of RWI and SPEI at the regional-scale under dryer conditions. The tipping point of forest declines to drought is predicted by the regression model as SPEItp = −1.64 and RWItp = 0, that is, persistence of the water deficit (11 month) with intensity of −1.64 leading to negligible growth for the conifer species. When climate conditions are wetter, the correlation between the binned averages ofRWI and SPEI is weaker which we believe is most likely due to soil water and atmospheric moisture levels no longer being the dominant factor limiting tree growth.Wealso illustrate a potential application of the derived tipping point (SPEItp = −1.64) through an examination of the 2002 extreme drought event in theSWUSconifer forest regions. Distinguished differences in remote-sensing based NDVI anomalies were found between the two regions partitioned by the derived tipping point.

  • 17.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Florida International University, United States of America.
    Brown, Ian
    Castellazzi, Pascal
    Espinosa, Luisa
    Guittard, Alice
    Hong, Sang-Hoon
    Rivera-Monroy, Victor H.
    Wdowinski, Shimon
    Assessment of hydrologic connectivity in an ungauged wetland with InSAR observations2018In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, no 2, article id 024003Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Cienaga Grande de Santa Marta (CGSM) is one of the world's most productive tropical wetlands and one that has witnessed some of the greatest recorded dieback of mangroves. Human-driven loss of hydrologic connectivity by roads, artificial channels and water flow regulation appears to be the reason behind mangrove mortality in this ungauged wetland. In this study, we determined the CGSM's current state of hydrologic connectivity by combining a remote sensing technique, termed as Wetland Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), with a hydrologic study of river water discharge. For this research, we processed 29 ALOS-PALSAR acquisitions taken during the period 2007-2011 and generated 66 interferograms that provide information on relative surface water level changes. We found that change in water discharge upstream on the main tributary of the CGSM could explain at most 17% of the variance of the change in water level in the CGSM. Fresh water inputs into the wetland were identified only when the mean daily water discharge in the river exceeded 700m(3) s(-1), which corresponds to only 30% of the days during the period. The interferogram analysis also revealed that artificial channels within the wetland serve as barriers to water flow and contribute to the overall loss in hydrologic connectivity. We recommend increasing fresh water inputs from the Magdalena River by reducing water regulation of fresh water from the river and improving connectivity on either side of the artificial channels crossing the CGSM. This study emphasizes the potential of the application of wetland InSAR to determine hydrologic connectivity in wetlands that are completely or poorly ungauged and to define the necessary guidelines for wetland hydrologic restoration.

  • 18. Jägermeyr, J.
    et al.
    Gerten, D.
    Schaphoff, S.
    Heinke, J.
    Lucht, W.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Integrated crop water management might sustainably halve the global food gap2016In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 11, no 2, article id 025002Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    As planetary boundaries are rapidly being approached, humanity has little room for additional expansion and conventional intensification of agriculture, while a growing world population further spreads the food gap. Ample evidence exists that improved on-farm water management can close water-related yield gaps to a considerable degree, but its global significance remains unclear. In this modeling study we investigate systematically to what extent integrated crop water management might contribute to closing the global food gap, constrained by the assumption that pressure on water resources and land does not increase. Using a process-based bio-/agrosphere model, we simulate the yield-increasing potential of elevated irrigation water productivity (including irrigation expansion with thus saved water) and optimized use of in situ precipitation water (alleviated soil evaporation, enhanced infiltration, water harvesting for supplemental irrigation) under current and projected future climate (from 20 climate models, with and without beneficial CO2 effects). Results show that irrigation efficiency improvements can save substantial amounts of water in many river basins (globally 48% of non-productive water consumption in an 'ambitious' scenario), and if rerouted to irrigate neighboring rainfed systems, can boost kcal production significantly (26% global increase). Low-tech solutions for small-scale farmers on water-limited croplands show the potential to increase rainfed yields to a similar extent. In combination, the ambitious yet achievable integrated water management strategies explored in this study could increase global production by 41% and close the water-related yield gap by 62%. Unabated climate change will have adverse effects on crop yields in many regions, but improvements in water management as analyzed here can buffer such effects to a significant degree.

  • 19.
    Koutsouris, A. J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Jarsjö, Jerker
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Lyon, Steve W.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Hydro-climatic trends and water resource management implications based on multi-scale data for the Lake Victoria region, Kenya2010In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 5, no 3, p. 034005-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Unreliable rainfall may be a main cause of poverty in rural areas, such as the Kisumu district byLake Victoria in Kenya. Climate change may further increase the negative effects of rainfalluncertainty. These effects could be mitigated to some extent through improved and adaptive water resource management and planning, which relies on our interpretations and projections of the coupled hydro-climatic system behaviour and its development trends. In order to identify and quantify the main differences and consistencies among such hydro-climatic assessments, this study investigates trends and exemplifies their use for important water management decisions for the Lake Victoria drainage basin (LVDB), based on local scale data for the Orongovillage in the Kisumu district, and regional scale data for the whole LVDB. Results show low correlation between locally and regionally observed hydro-climatic trends, and large differences, which in turn affects assessments of important water resource management parameters. However, both data scales converge in indicating that observed local and regional hydrological discharge trends are primarily driven by local and regional water use and land use changes.

  • 20.
    Livsey, John
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Katterer, Thomas
    Vico, Giulia
    Lyon, Steve W.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. The Nature Conservancy, USA..
    Lindborg, Regina
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Scaini, Anna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Da, Chau Thi
    Manzoni, Stefano
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Do alternative irrigation strategies for rice cultivation decrease water footprints at the cost of long-term soil health?2019In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, no 7, article id 074011Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The availability of water is a growing concern for flooded rice production. As such, several water-saving irrigation practices have been developed to reduce water requirements. Alternate wetting and drying and mid-season drainage have been shown to potentially reduce water requirements while maintaining rice yields when compared to continuous flooding. With the removal of permanently anaerobic conditions during the growing season, water-saving irrigation can also reduce CO2 equivalent (CO2eq) emissions, helping reduce the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the long-term impact of water-saving irrigation on soil organic carbon (SOC)-used here as an indicator of soil health and fertility-has not been explored. We therefore conducted a meta-analysis to assess the effects of common water-saving irrigation practices (alternate wetting and drying and mid-season drainage) on (i) SOC, and (ii) GHG emissions. Despite an extensive literature search, only 12 studies were found containing data to constrain the soil C balance in both continuous flooding and water-saving irrigation plots, highlighting the still limited understanding of long-term impacts of water-saving irrigation on soil health and GHG emissions. Water-saving irrigation was found to reduce emissions of CH4 by 52.3% and increased those of CO2 by 44.8%. CO2eq emissions were thereby reduced by 18.6% but the soil-to-atmosphere carbon (C) flux increased by 25% when compared to continuous flooding. Water-saving irrigation was also found to have a negative effect on both SOC-reducing concentrations by 5.2%-and soil organic nitrogen-potentially depleting stocks by more than 100 kgN/ha per year. While negative effects of water-saving irrigation on rice yield may not be visible in short-term experiments, care should be taken when assessing the long-term sustainability of these irrigation practices because they can decrease soil fertility. Strategies need to be developed for assessing the more long-term effects of these irrigation practices by considering trade-offs between water savings and other ecosystem services.

  • 21. Luterbacher, J.
    et al.
    Werner, J. P.
    Smerdon, J. E.
    Fernandez-Donado, L.
    Gonzalez-Rouco, F. J.
    Barriopedro, D.
    Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Humanities, Department of History.
    Buentgen, U.
    Zorita, E.
    Wagner, S.
    Esper, J.
    McCarroll, D.
    Toreti, A.
    Frank, D.
    Jungclaus, J. H.
    Barriendos, M.
    Bertolin, C.
    Bothe, O.
    Brazdil, R.
    Camuffo, D.
    Dobrovolny, P.
    Gagen, M.
    Garica-Bustamante, E.
    Ge, Q.
    Gomez-Navarro, J. J.
    Guiot, J.
    Hao, Z.
    Hegerl, G. C.
    Holmgren, Karin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Klimenko, V. V.
    Martin-Chivelet, J.
    Pfister, C.
    Roberts, N.
    Schindler, A.
    Schurer, A.
    Solomina, O.
    von Gunten, L.
    Wahl, E.
    Wanner, H.
    Wetter, O.
    Xoplaki, E.
    Yuan, N.
    Zanchettin, D.
    Zhang, H.
    Zerefos, C.
    European summer temperatures since Roman times2016In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 11, no 2, article id 024001Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The spatial context is criticalwhen assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatiotemporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June-August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951-2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986-2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850-2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.

  • 22.
    Mazi, Katerina
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology. National Observatory of Athens, Greece.
    Koussis, Antonis D.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Tipping points for seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers under rising sea level2013In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 8, no 1, p. 014001-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study considers different projections of climate-driven sea-level rise and uses a recently developed, generalized analytical model to investigate the responses of sea intrusion in unconfined sloping coastal aquifers to climate-driven sea-level rise. The results show high nonlinearity in these responses, implying important thresholds, or tipping points, beyond which the responses of seawater intrusion to sea-level rise shift abruptly from a stable state of mild change responses to a new stable state of large responses to small changes that can rapidly lead to full seawater intrusion into a coastal aquifer. The identified tipping points are of three types: (a) spatial, for the particular aquifers (sections) along a coastline with depths that imply critical risk of full sea intrusion in response to even small sea-level rise; (b) temporal, for the critical sea-level rise and its timing, beyond which the change responses and the risk of complete sea intrusion in an aquifer shift abruptly from low to very high; and (c) managerial, for the critical minimum values of groundwater discharge and hydraulic head that inland water management must maintain in an aquifer in order to avoid rapid loss of control and complete sea intrusion in response to even small sea-level rise. The existence of a tipping point depends on highly variable aquifer properties and groundwater conditions, in combination with more homogeneous sea conditions. The generalized analytical model used in this study facilitates parsimonious quantification and screening of sea-intrusion risks and tipping points under such spatio-temporally different condition combinations along extended coastlines.

  • 23.
    Meier, Markus
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Andersson, Helen C.
    Arheimer, Berit
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Chubarenko, Boris
    Donnelly, Chantal
    Eilola, Kari
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Hansson, Anders
    Havenhand, Jonathan
    Hoglund, Anders
    Kuznetsov, Ivan
    MacKenzie, Brian R.
    Müller-Karulis, Barbel
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Neumann, Thomas
    Niiranen, Susa
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Piwowarczyk, Joanna
    Raudsepp, Urmas
    Reckermann, Marcus
    Ruoho-Airola, Tuija
    Savchuk, Oleg P.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute.
    Schenk, Frederik
    Schimanke, Semjon
    Vali, Germo
    Weslawski, Jan-Marcin
    Zorita, Eduardo
    Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic sea ecosystem first results from multi model ensemble simulations2012In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 7, no 3, p. 034005-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850-2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850-2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961-2098, scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air-and riverborne nutrient load scenarios (ranging from a pessimistic 'business-as-usual' to the most optimistic case). To estimate uncertainties, different models for the various parts of the Earth system were applied. Assuming the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1B or A2, we found that water temperatures at the end of this century may be higher and salinities and oxygen concentrations may be lower than ever measured since 1850. There is also a tendency of increased eutrophication in the future, depending on the nutrient load scenario. Although cod biomass is mainly controlled by fishing mortality, climate change together with eutrophication may result in a biomass decline during the latter part of this century, even when combined with lower fishing pressure. Despite considerable shortcomings of state-of-the-art models, this study suggests that the future Baltic Sea ecosystem may unprecedentedly change compared to the past 150 yr. As stakeholders today pay only little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies, more information is needed to raise public awareness of the possible impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems.

  • 24.
    Messori, Gabriele
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . Uppsala University, Sweden.
    Ruiz-Pérez, Guiomar
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Sweden.
    Manzoni, Stefano
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Vico, G.
    Climate drivers of the terrestrial carbon cycle variability in Europe2019In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, no 6, article id 063001Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and is heavily influenced by climate. Climate variability can be diagnosed through metrics ranging from individual environmental variables, to collections of variables, to the so-called climate modes of variability. Similarly, the impact of a given climate variation on the terrestrial carbon cycle can be described using several metrics, including vegetation indices, measures of ecosystem respiration and productivity and net biosphere-atmosphere fluxes. The wide range of temporal (from sub-daily to paleoclimatic) and spatial (from local to continental and global) scales involved requires a scale-dependent investigation of the interactions between the carbon cycle and climate. However, a comprehensive picture of the physical links and correlations between climate drivers and carbon cycle metrics at different scales remains elusive, framing the scope of this contribution. Here, we specifically explore how climate variability metrics (from single variables to complex indices) relate to the variability of the carbon cycle at sub-daily to interannual scales (i.e. excluding long-term trends). The focus is on the interactions most relevant to the European terrestrial carbon cycle. We underline the broad areas of agreement and disagreement in the literature, and conclude by outlining some existing knowledge gaps and by proposing avenues for improving our holistic understanding of the role of climate drivers in modulating the terrestrial carbon cycle.

  • 25. Milkoreit, Manjana
    et al.
    Hodbod, Jennifer
    Baggio, Jacopo
    Benessaiah, Karina
    Calderón-Contreras, Rafael
    Donges, Jonathan F.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.
    Mathias, Jean-Denis
    Rocha, Juan Carlos
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schoon, Michael
    Werners, Saskia E.
    Defining tipping points for social-ecological systems scholarship-an interdisciplinary literature review2018In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, no 3, article id 033005Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The term tipping point has experienced explosive popularity across multiple disciplines over the last decade. Research on social-ecological systems (SES) has contributed to the growth and diversity of the term's use. The diverse uses of the term obscure potential differences between tipping behavior in natural and social systems, and issues of causality across natural and social system components in SES. This paper aims to create the foundation for a discussion within the SES research community about the appropriate use of the term tipping point, especially the relatively novel term 'social tipping point.' We review existing literature on tipping points and similar concepts (e.g. regime shifts, critical transitions) across all spheres of science published between 1960 and 2016 with a special focus on a recent and still small body of work on social tipping points. We combine quantitative and qualitative analyses in a bibliometric approach, rooted in an expert elicitation process. We find that the term tipping point became popular after the year 2000-long after the terms regime shift and critical transition-across all spheres of science. We identify 23 distinct features of tipping point definitions and their prevalence across disciplines, but find no clear taxonomy of discipline-specific definitions. Building on the most frequently used features, we propose definitions for tipping points in general and social tipping points in SES in particular.

  • 26. Mishra, U.
    et al.
    Jastrow, J. D.
    Matamala, R.
    Hugelius, Gustaf
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Koven, C. D.
    Harden, J. W.
    Ping, C. L.
    Michaelson, G. J.
    Fan, Z.
    Miller, R. M.
    McGuire, A. D.
    Tarnocai, C.
    Kuhry, Peter
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Riley, W. J.
    Schaefer, K.
    Schuur, E. A. G.
    Jörgenson, M. T.
    Hinzman, L. D.
    Empirical estimates to reduce modeling uncertainties of soil organic carbon in permafrost regions: a review of recent progress and remaining challenges2013In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 8, no 3, p. 035020-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The vast amount of organic carbon (OC) stored in soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost region is a potentially vulnerable component of the global carbon cycle. However, estimates of the quantity, decomposability, and combustibility of OC contained in permafrost-region soils remain highly uncertain, thereby limiting our ability to predict the release of greenhouse gases due to permafrost thawing. Substantial differences exist between empirical and modeling estimates of the quantity and distribution of permafrost-region soil OC, which contribute to large uncertainties in predictions of carbon-climate feedbacks under future warming. Here, we identify research challenges that constrain current assessments of the distribution and potential decomposability of soil OC stocks in the northern permafrost region and suggest priorities for future empirical and modeling studies to address these challenges.

  • 27.
    Mård Karlsson, Johanna
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Opportunities and limitations to detect climate-related regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems through eco-hydrological monitoring2011In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 6, no 1, p. 014015-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study has identified and mapped the occurrences of three different types of climate-driven and hydrologically mediated regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems: (i) from tundra to shrubland or forest, (ii) from terrestrial ecosystems to thermokarst lakes and wetlands, and (iii) from thermokarst lakes and wetlands to terrestrial ecosystems. The area coverage of these shifts is compared to that of hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring relevant to their possible detection. Hotspot areas are identified within the Yukon, Mackenzie, Barents/Norwegian Sea and Ob river basins, where systematic water monitoring overlaps with ecological monitoring and observed ecosystem regime shift occurrences, providing opportunities for linked eco-hydrological investigations that can improve our regime shift understanding, and detection and prediction capabilities. Overall, most of the total areal extent of shifts from tundra to shrubland and from terrestrial to aquatic regimes is in hydrologically and hydrochemically unmonitored areas. For shifts from aquatic to terrestrial regimes, related water and waterborne nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes are relatively well monitored, while waterborne carbon fluxes are unmonitored. There is a further large spatial mismatch between the coverage of hydrological and that of ecological monitoring, implying a need for more coordinated monitoring efforts to detect the waterborne mediation and propagation of changes and impacts associated with Arctic ecological regime shifts.

  • 28.
    Ospina, Daniel
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Peterson, Garry
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Royal Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Migrant remittances can reduce the potential of local forest transitions-a social-ecological regime shift analysis2019In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, no 2, article id 024017Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We explore how remittances shape the effect of rural out-migration on the potential for local forest transitions. Building on an existing theoretical model of social-ecological regime shifts that links migration, farmland abandonment, and forest regrowth, we incorporate migrant remittances as an additional rural-urban teleconnection. We also extend the ecological dynamics to include a dynamical forest regrowth rate, generating a slowing-down of regrowth once the landscape has undergone extensive agricultural change. We first analyse how these two extensions to the base model reshape the stability of the system, altering the existence and dynamics of alternative agricultural and forested regimes. Then we explore how two different uses of remittances by rural households (hiring agricultural labor or supplementing household income/consumption) affect the potential for local forest transitions in a context of structural economic change, represented as an increasing differential of rural and urban incomes. We find that remittances change the character of forested and agricultural regimes, and increase the resilience of the agricultural regime. This effect is stronger when remittances are used for hiring labor. The findings are consistent with empirical research that highlights the remarkable persistence of rural livelihoods and landscapes in the face of increasing global connectivity and urbanization. Remittances, and possibly other rural-urban teleconnections, are necessary components for an updated 'economic development pathway' of forest transitions. With this simple model we show that social-ecological regime shifts offer a useful perspective to study land use transition dynamics and advance land change theory.

  • 29. Pascual, Unai
    et al.
    Palomo, Ignacio
    Adams, William M.
    Chan, Kai M. A.
    Daw, Tim M.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Garmendia, Eneko
    Gomez-Baggethun, Erik
    de Groot, Rudolf S.
    Mace, Georgina M.
    Martin-Lopez, Berta
    Phelps, Jacob
    Off-stage ecosystem service burdens: A blind spot for global sustainability2017In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 12, no 7, article id 075001Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The connected nature of social-ecological systems has never been more apparent than in today's globalized world. The ecosystem service framework and associated ecosystem assessments aim to better inform the science-policy response to sustainability challenges. Such assessments, however, often overlook distant, diffuse and delayed impacts that are critical for global sustainability. Ecosystem-services science must better recognise the off-stage impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services of place-based ecosystem management, which we term 'ecosystem service burdens'. These are particularly important since they are often negative, and have a potentially significant effect on ecosystem management decisions. Ecosystem-services research can better recognise these off-stage burdens through integration with other analytical approaches, such as life cycle analysis and risk-based approaches that better account for the uncertainties involved. We argue that off-stage ecosystem service burdens should be incorporated in ecosystem assessments such as those led by the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Taking better account of these off-stage burdens is essential to achieve a more comprehensive understanding of cross-scale interactions, a prerequisite for any sustainability transition.

  • 30. Sayles, J. S.
    et al.
    Mancilla Garcia, Maria
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Hamilton, M.
    Alexander, S. M.
    Baggio, J. A.
    Fischer, A. P.
    Ingold, K.
    Meredith, G. R.
    Pittman, J.
    Social-ecological network analysis for sustainability sciences: a systematic review and innovative research agenda for the future2019In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, no 9, article id 093003Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Social-ecological network (SEN) concepts and tools are increasingly used in human-environment and sustainability sciences. We take stock of this budding research area to further show the strength of SEN analysis for complex human-environment settings, identify future synergies between SEN and wider human-environment research, and provide guidance about when to use different kinds of SEN approaches and models. We characterize SEN research along a spectrum specifying the degree of explicit network representation of system components and dynamics. We then systematically review one end of this spectrum, what we term 'fully articulated SEN' studies, which specifically model unique social and ecological units and relationships. Results show a larger number of papers focus on methodological advancement and applied ends. While there has been some development and testing of theories, this remains an area for future work and would help develop SENs as a unique field of research, not just a method. Authors have studied diverse systems, while mainly focusing on the problem of social-ecological fit alongside a scattering of other topics. There is strong potential, however, to engage other issues central to human-environment studies. Analyzing the simultaneous effects of multiple social, environmental, and coupled processes, change over time, and linking network structures to outcomes are also areas for future advancement. This review provides a comprehensive assessment of (fully articulated) SEN research, a necessary step that can help scholars develop comparable cases and fill research gaps.

  • 31. Seppelt, Ralf
    et al.
    Verburg, Peter H.
    Norström, Albert
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Cramer, Wolfgang
    Václavík, Tomáš
    Focus on cross-scale feedbacks in global sustainable land management2018In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, no 9, article id 090402Article, review/survey (Refereed)
  • 32. Sobota, Daniel J.
    et al.
    Compton, Jana E.
    McCrackin, Michelle L.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Singh, Shweta
    Cost of reactive nitrogen release from human activities to the environment in the United States2015In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 10, no 2, article id 25006Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Leakage of reactive nitrogen (N) from human activities to the environment can cause human health and ecological problems. Often these harmful effects are not reflected in the costs of food, fuel, and fiber that derive from Nuse. Spatial analyses of damage costs attributable to source at management-relevant scales could inform decisions in areas where anthropogenic N leakage causes harm. We used recently compiled data describing N inputs in the conterminous United States (US) to assess potential damage costs associated with anthropogenic N. We estimated fates of N leaked to the environment (air/deposition, surface freshwater, groundwater, and coastal zones) in the early 2000s by multiplying watershed-level N inputs (8-digit US Geologic Survey Hydrologic Unit Codes; HUC8s) with published coefficients describing nutrient uptake efficiency, leaching losses, and gaseous emissions. We scaled these N leakage estimates with mitigation, remediation, direct damage, and substitution costs associated with human health, agriculture, ecosystems, and climate (per kg of N) to calculate annual damage cost (US dollars in 2008 or as reported) of anthropogenic N per HUC8. Estimates of N leakage by HUC8 ranged from <1 to 125 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1), with most N leaked to freshwater ecosystems. Estimates of potential damages (based on median estimates) ranged from $1.94 to $2255 ha(-1) yr(-1) across watersheds, with a median of $252 ha(-1) yr(-1). Eutrophication of freshwater ecosystems and respiratory effects of atmospheric N pollution were important across HUC8s. However, significant data gaps remain in our ability to fully assess N damages, such as damage costs from harmful algal blooms and drinking water contamination. Nationally, potential health and environmental damages of anthropogenic N in the early 2000s totaled $210 billion yr(-1) USD (range: $81-$441 billion yr(-1)). While a number of gaps and uncertainties remain in these estimates, overall this work represents a starting point to inform decisions and engage stakeholders on the costs of N pollution.

  • 33. Svensson, J.
    et al.
    Ström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Hansson, Margareta
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Lihavainen, H.
    Kerminen, V-M
    Observed metre scale horizontal variability of elemental carbon in surface snow2013In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 8, no 3, p. 034012-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Surface snow investigated for its elemental carbon (EC) concentration, based on a thermal-optical method, at two different sites during winter and spring of 2010 demonstrates metre scale horizontal variability in concentration. Based on the two sites sampled, a clean and a polluted site, the clean site (Arctic Finland) presents the greatest variability. In side-by-side ratios between neighbouring samples, 5 m apart, a ratio of around two was observed for the clean site. The median for the polluted site had a ratio of 1.2 between neighbouring samples. The results suggest that regions exposed to snowdrift may be more sensitive to horizontal variability in EC concentration. Furthermore, these results highlight the importance of carefully choosing sampling sites and timing, as each parameter will have some effect on EC variability. They also emphasize the importance of gathering multiple samples from a site to obtain a representative value for the area.

  • 34. Tlusty, Michael
    et al.
    Tyedmers, Peter
    Ziegler, Friederike
    Jonell, Malin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Henriksson, Patrik J. G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. WorldFish, Jalan Batu Maung, Malaysia.
    Newton, Richard
    Little, Dave
    Fry, Jillian
    Love, Dave
    Cao, Ling
    Commentary: comparing efficiency in aquatic and terrestrial animal production systems2018In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, no 12, article id 128001Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 35. Tulbure, Mirela G.
    et al.
    Kininmonth, Stuart
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Broich, Mark
    Spatiotemporal dynamics of surface water networks across a global biodiversity hotspot-implications for conservation2014In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 9, no 11, p. 114012-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The concept of habitat networks represents an important tool for landscape conservation and management at regional scales. Previous studies simulated degradation of temporally fixed networks but few quantified the change in network connectivity from disintegration of key features that undergo naturally occurring spatiotemporal dynamics. This is particularly of concern for aquatic systems, which typically show high natural spatiotemporal variability. Here we focused on the Swan Coastal Plain, a bioregion that encompasses a global biodiversity hotspot in Australia with over 1500 water bodies of high biodiversity. Using graph theory, we conducted a temporal analysis of water body connectivity over 13 years of variable climate. We derived large networks of surface water bodies using Landsat data (1999-2011). We generated an ensemble of 278 potential networks at three dispersal distances approximating the maximum dispersal distance of different water dependent organisms. We assessed network connectivity through several network topology metrics and quantified the resilience of the network topology during wet and dry phases. We identified 'stepping stone' water bodies across time and compared our networks with theoretical network models with known properties. Results showed a highly dynamic seasonal pattern of variability in network topology metrics. A decline in connectivity over the 13 years was noted with potential negative consequences for species with limited dispersal capacity. The networks described here resemble theoretical scale-free models, also known as 'rich get richer' algorithm. The 'stepping stone' water bodies are located in the area around the Peel-Harvey Estuary, a Ramsar listed site, and some are located in a national park. Our results describe a powerful approach that can be implemented when assessing the connectivity for a particular organism with known dispersal distance. The approach of identifying the surface water bodies that act as 'stepping stone' over time may help prioritize surface water bodies that are essential for maintaining regional scale connectivity.

  • 36.
    Undeman, Emma
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Brown, Trevor N.
    McLachlan, Michael S.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Wania, Frank
    Who in the world is most exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls? Using models to identify highly exposed populations2018In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, no 6, article id 064036Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Human subpopulations experience different exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) because of differences in the structure of their food webs and the extent of environmental contamination. Here we quantify the time-variant exposure of different human populations around the world to one representative POP, namely the polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congener 153, based on a dynamic simulation of both global environmental fate (using the model BETR-Global) and human food chain bioaccumulation (using the model ACC-HUMAN). The approach identifies subpopulations whose diets include a carnivorous mammal as experiencing the world's highest PCB-153 exposure, i.e. the very large biomagnification potential of their food web more than makes up for the remoteness of their living environment. However, for subpopulations that do not eat warm-blooded carnivores, the proximity to sources of PCBs is more important than food web structure and environmental conditions for differentiating their exposure to PCBs.

  • 37. Vico, Giulia
    et al.
    Dralle, David
    Feng, Xue
    Thompson, Sally
    Manzoni, Stefano
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    How competitive is drought deciduousness in tropical forests? A combined eco-hydrological and eco-evolutionary approach2017In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 12, no 6, article id 065006Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Drought-deciduous and evergreen species are both common in tropical forests, where there is the need to cope with water shortages during periodic dry spells and over the course of the dry season. Which phenological strategy is favored depends on the long-term balance of carbon costs and gains that leaf phenology imposes as a result of the alternation of wet and dry seasons and the unpredictability of rainfall events. This study integrates a stochastic eco-hydrological framework with key plant economy traits to derive the long-term average annual net carbon gain of trees exhibiting different phenological strategies in tropical forests. The average net carbon gain is used as a measure of fitness to assess which phenological strategies are more productive and more evolutionarily stable (i.e. not prone to invasion by species with a different strategy). The evergreen strategy results in a higher net carbon gain and more evolutionarily stable communities with increasing wet season lengths. Reductions in the length of the wet season or the total rainfall, as predicted under climate change scenarios, should promote a shift towards more drought-deciduous communities, with ensuing implications for ecosystem functioning.

  • 38. Wartenburger, Richard
    et al.
    Seneviratne, Sonia
    Hirschi, Martin
    Chang, Jinfeng
    Ciais, Philippe
    Deryng, Delphine
    Elliott, Joshua
    Folberth, Christian
    Gosling, Simon N.
    Gudmundsson, Lukas
    Henrot, Alexandra-Jane
    Hickler, Thomas
    Ito, Akihiko
    Khabarov, Nikolay
    Kim, Hyungjun
    Leng, Guoyong
    Liu, Junguo
    Liu, Xingcai
    Masaki, Yoshimitsu
    Morfopoulos, Catherine
    Müller, Christoph
    Müller Schmied, Hannes
    Nishina, Kazuya
    Orth, Rene
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Germany.
    Pokhrel, Yadu
    Pugh, Thomas A. M.
    Satoh, Yusuke
    Schaphoff, Sibyll
    Schmid, Erwin
    Sheffield, Justin
    Stacke, Tobias
    Steinkamp, Joerg
    Tang, Qiuhong
    Thiery, Wim
    Wada, Yoshihide
    Wang, Xuhui
    Weedon, Graham P.
    Yang, Hong
    Zhou, Tian
    Evapotranspiration simulations in ISIMIP2a-Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets2018In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, no 7, article id 075001Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Actual land evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the global hydrological cycle and an essential variable determining the evolution of hydrological extreme events under different climate change scenarios. However, recently available ET products show persistent uncertainties that are impeding a precise attribution of human-induced climate change. Here, we aim at comparing a range of independent global monthly land ET estimates with historical model simulations from the global water, agriculture, and biomes sectors participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). Among the independent estimates, we use the EartH2Observe Tier-1 dataset (E2O), two commonly used reanalyses, a pre-compiled ensemble product (LandFlux-EVAL), and an updated collection of recently published datasets that algorithmically derive ET from observations or observations-based estimates (diagnostic datasets). A cluster analysis is applied in order to identify spatio-temporal differences among all datasets and to thus identify factors that dominate overall uncertainties. The clustering is controlled by several factors including the model choice, the meteorological forcing used to drive the assessed models, the data category (models participating in the different sectors of ISIMIP2a, E2O models, diagnostic estimates, reanalysis-based estimates or composite products), the ET scheme, and the number of soil layers in the models. By using these factors to explain spatial and spatio-temporal variabilities in ET, we find that the model choice mostly dominates (24%-40% of variance explained), except for spatio-temporal patterns of total ET, where the forcing explains the largest fraction of the variance (29%). The most dominant clusters of datasets are further compared with individual diagnostic and reanalysis-based estimates to assess their representation of selected heat waves and droughts in the Great Plains, Central Europe and western Russia. Although most of the ET estimates capture these extreme events, the generally large spread among the entire ensemble indicates substantial uncertainties.

  • 39.
    Wild, Birgit
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry. University of Vienna, Austria; Austrian Polar Research Institute, Austria; University of Gothenburg, Sweden; .
    Alves, Ricardo J. Eloy
    Bárta, Jiři
    Čapek, Petr
    Gentsch, Norman
    Guggenberger, Georg
    Hugelius, Gustaf
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Stanford University, United States of America.
    Knoltsch, Anna
    Kuhry, Peter
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Lashchinskiy, Nikolay
    Mikutta, Robert
    Palmtag, Juri
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Prommer, Judith
    Schnecker, Jörg
    Shibistova, Olga
    Takriti, Mounir
    Urich, Tim
    Richter, Andreas
    Amino acid production exceeds plant nitrogen demand in Siberian tundra2018In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, no 3, article id 034002Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Arctic plant productivity is often limited by low soil N availability. This has been attributed to slow breakdown of N-containing polymers in litter and soil organic matter (SOM) into smaller, available units, and to shallow plant rooting constrained by permafrost and high soil moisture. Using N-15 pool dilution assays, we here quantified gross amino acid and ammonium production rates in 97 active layer samples from four sites across the Siberian Arctic. We found that amino acid production in organic layers alone exceeded literature-based estimates of maximum plant N uptake 17-fold and therefore reject the hypothesis that arctic plant N limitation results from slow SOM breakdown. High microbial N use efficiency in organic layers rather suggests strong competition of microorganisms and plants in the dominant rooting zone. Deeper horizons showed lower amino acid production rates per volume, but also lower microbial N use efficiency. Permafrost thaw together with soil drainage might facilitate deeper plant rooting and uptake of previously inaccessible subsoil N, and thereby promote plant productivity in arctic ecosystems. We conclude that changes in microbial decomposer activity, microbial N utilization and plant root density with soil depth interactively control N availability for plants in the Arctic.

  • 40.
    Yi, Chuixiang
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . City University of New York, USA.
    Pendall, Elise
    Ciais, Philippe
    Focus on extreme events and the carbon cycle2015In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 10, no 7, article id 070201Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 41. Zhang, Quan
    et al.
    Ficklin, Darren L.
    Manzoni, Stefano
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Wang, Lixin
    Way, Danielle
    Phillips, Richard P.
    Novick, Kimberly A.
    Response of ecosystem intrinsic water use efficiency and gross primary productivity to rising vapor pressure deficit2019In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, no 7, article id 074023Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Elevated vapor pressure deficit (VPD) due to drought and warming is well-known to limit canopy stomatal and surface conductance, but the impacts of elevated VPD on ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) are less clear. The intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE), defined as the ratio of carbon (C) assimilation to stomatal conductance, links vegetation C gain and water loss and is a key determinant of how GPP will respond to climate change. While it is well-established that rising atmospheric CO2 increases ecosystem iWUE, historic and future increases in VPD caused by climate change and drought are often neglected when considering trends in ecosystem iWUE. Here, we synthesize long-term observations of C and water fluxes from 28 North American FLUXNET sites, spanning eight vegetation types, to demonstrate that ecosystem iWUE increases consistently with rising VPD regardless of changes in soil moisture. Another way to interpret this result is that GPP decreases less than surface conductance with increasing VPD. We also project how rising VPD will impact iWUE into the future. Results vary substantially from one site to the next; in a majority of sites, future increases in VPD (RCP 8.5, highest emission scenario) are projected to increase iWUE by 5%-15% by 2050, and by 10%-35% by the end of the century. The increases in VPD owing to elevated global temperatures could be responsible for a 0.13% year(-1) increase in ecosystem iWUE in the future. Our results highlight the importance of considering VPD impacts on iWUE independently of CO2 impacts.

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