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  • 1.
    Boyd, Emily
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Reading, England.
    Cornforth, Rosalind J.
    Lamb, Peter J.
    Tarhule, Aondover
    Lele, M. Issa
    Brouder, Alan
    Building resilience to face recurring environmental crisis in African Sahel2013In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 3, no 7, p. 631-637Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The present food shortages in the Horn of Africa and the West African Sahel are affecting 31 million people. Such continuing and future crises require that people in the region adapt to an increasing and potentially irreversible global sustainability challenge. Given this situation and that short-term weather and seasonal climate forecasting have limited skill for West Africa, the Rainwatch project illustrates the value of near real-time monitoring and improved communication for the unfavourable 2011 West African monsoon, the resulting severe drought-induced humanitarian impacts continuing into 2012, and their exacerbation by flooding in 2012. Rainwatch is now coupled with a boundary organization (Africa Climate Exchange, AfClix) with the aim of integrating the expertise and actions of relevant institutions, agencies and stakeholders to broker ground-based dialogue to promote resilience in the face of recurring crisis.

  • 2. Brown, S.
    et al.
    Nicholls, R.J.
    Hanson, S.
    Brundrit, G.
    Klein, Richard J.T.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute. Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, Linköping University.
    Shifting perspectives on coastal impacts and adaptation2014In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 4, no 9, p. 752-755Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 3. Chadburn, S. E.
    et al.
    Burke, E. J.
    Cox, P. M.
    Friedlingstein, P.
    Hugelius, Gustaf
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Westermann, S.
    An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming2017In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 7, no 5, p. 340-344Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Permafrost, which covers 15 million km(2) of the land surface, is one of the components of the Earth system that is most sensitive to warming(1,2). Loss of permafrost would radically change high-latitude hydrology and biogeochemical cycling, and could therefore provide very significant feedbacks on climate change(3-8). The latest climate models all predict warming of high-latitude soils and thus thawing of permafrost under future climate change, but with widely varying magnitudes of permafrost thaw(9,10). Here we show that in each of the models, their present-day spatial distribution of permafrost and air temperature can be used to infer the sensitivity of permafrost to future global warming. Using the same approach for the observed permafrost distribution and air temperature, we estimate a sensitivity of permafrost area loss to global mean warming at stabilization of 4.0(-1.1)(+1.0) million km(2) degrees C-1 (1 sigma confidence), which is around 20% higher than previous studies(9). Our method facilitates an assessment for COP21 climate change targets(11): if the climate is stabilized at 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, we estimate that the permafrost area would eventually be reduced by over 40%. Stabilizing at 1.5 degrees C rather than 2 degrees C would save approximately 2 million km(2) of permafrost.

  • 4. Cinner, Joshua E.
    et al.
    Huchery, Cindy
    Hicks, Christina C.
    Daw, Tim M.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of East Anglia, England.
    Marshall, Nadine
    Wamukota, Andrew
    Allison, Edward H.
    Changes in adaptive capacity of Kenyan fishing communities2015In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 5, no 9, p. 872-+Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Coastal communities are particularly at risk from the impacts of a changing climate(1). Building the capacity of coastal communities to cope with and recover from a changing environment is a critical means to reducing their vulnerability(2,3). Yet, few studies have quantitatively examined adaptive capacity in such communities. Here, we build on an emerging body of research examining adaptive capacity in natural resource-dependent communities in two important ways. We examine how nine indicators of adaptive capacity vary: among segments of Kenyan fishing communities; and over time. Socially disaggregated analyses found that the young, those who had migrated, and those who do not participate in decision-making seemed least prepared for adapting to change in these resource-dependent communities. These results highlight the most vulnerable segments of society when it comes to preparing for and adapting to change in resource-dependent communities. Comparisons through time showed that aspects of adaptive capacity seemed to have increased between 2008 and 2012 owing to higher observed community infrastructure and perceived availability of credit.

  • 5.
    Destouni, Georgia
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Prieto, Carmen
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Hydroclimatic shifts driven by human water use for food and energy production2013In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 3, no 3, p. 213-217Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Hydrological change is a central part of global change(1-3). Its drivers in the past need to be understood and quantified for accurate projection of disruptive future changes(4). Here we analyse past hydro-climatic, agricultural and hydropower changes from twentieth century data for nine major Swedish drainage basins, and synthesize and compare these results with other regional(5-7) and global(2) assessments of hydrological change by irrigation and deforestation. Cross-regional comparison shows similar increases of evapotranspiration by non-irrigated agriculture and hydropower as for irrigated agriculture. In the Swedish basins, non-irrigated agriculture has also increased, whereas hydropower has decreased temporal runoff variability. A global indication of the regional results is a net total increase of evapotranspiration that is larger than a proposed associated planetary boundary(8). This emphasizes the need for climate and Earth system models to account for different human uses of water as anthropogenic drivers of hydro-climatic change. The present study shows how these drivers and their effects can be distinguished and quantified for hydrological basins on different scales and in different world regions. This should encourage further exploration of greater basin variety for better understanding of anthropogenic hydro-climatic change.

  • 6. Eisenack, K.
    et al.
    Moser, S.C.
    Hoffman, E.
    Klein, Richard J.T.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute. Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research and Department of Thematic Studies, Linköping University.
    Explaining and overcoming barriers to climate change adaptation2014In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 4, no 10, p. 867-872Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 7. Eisenack, Klaus
    et al.
    Moser, Susanne C.
    Hoffmann, Esther
    Klein, Richard J.T.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute. Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research and Department of Thematic Studies, Linköping University, Sweden.
    Reply to 'Opening up the black box of adaptation decision-making'2015In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 5, no 6, p. 494-495Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 8. Galfalk, Magnus
    et al.
    Olofsson, Göran
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Astronomy.
    Crill, Patrick
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Bastviken, David
    Making methane visible2016In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 6, no 4, p. 426-430Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Methane (CH4) is one of the most important greenhouse gases, and an important energy carrier in biogas and natural gas. Its large-scale emission patterns have been unpredictable and the source and sink distributions are poorly constrained. Remote assessment of CH4 with high sensitivity at a m(2) spatial resolution would allow detailed mapping of the near-ground distribution and anthropogenic sources in landscapes but has hitherto not been possible. Here we show that CH4 gradients can be imaged on the <m(2) scale at ambient levels (similar to 1.8 ppm) and filmed using optimized infrared (IR) hyperspectral imaging. Our approach allows both spectroscopic confirmation and quantification for all pixels in an imaged scene simultaneously. It also has the ability to map fluxes for dynamic scenes. This approach to mapping boundary layer CH4 offers a unique potential way to improve knowledge about greenhouse gases in landscapes and a step towards resolving source-sink attribution and scaling issues.

  • 9. Gallego-Sala, Angela
    et al.
    Charman, Dan J.
    Brewer, Simon
    Page, Susan E.
    Prentice, I. Colin
    Friedlingstein, Pierre
    Moreton, Steve
    Amesbury, Matthew J.
    Beilman, David W.
    Bjorck, Svante
    Blyakharchuk, Tatiana
    Bochicchio, Christopher
    Booth, Robert K.
    Bunbury, Joan
    Camill, Philip
    Carless, Donna
    Chimner, Rodney A.
    Clifford, Michael
    Cressey, Elizabeth
    Courtney-Mustaphi, Colin
    De Vleeschouwer, Francois
    de Jong, Rixt
    Fialkiewicz-Koziel, Barbara
    Finkelstein, Sarah A.
    Garneau, Michelle
    Githumbi, Esther
    Hribjlan, John
    Holmquist, James
    Hughes, Paul D. M.
    Jones, Chris
    Jones, Miriam C.
    Karofeld, Edgar
    Klein, Eric S.
    Kokfelt, Ulla
    Korhola, Atte
    Lacourse, Terri
    Le Roux, Gael
    Lamentowicz, Mariusz
    Large, David
    Lavoie, Martin
    Loisel, Julie
    Mackay, Helen
    MacDonald, Glen M.
    Makila, Markku
    Magnan, Gabriel
    Marchant, Robert
    Marcisz, Katarzyna
    Martinez Cortizas, Antonio
    Massa, Charly
    Mathijssen, Paul
    Mauquoy, Dmitri
    Mighall, Timothy
    Mitchell, Fraser J. G.
    Moss, Patrick
    Nichols, Jonathan
    Oksanen, Pirita O.
    Orme, Lisa
    Packalen, Maara S.
    Robinson, Stephen
    Roland, Thomas P.
    Sanderson, Nicole K.
    Sannel, A. Britta K.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Silva-Sanchez, Noemi
    Steinberg, Natascha
    Swindles, Graeme T.
    Turner, T. Edward
    Uglow, Joanna
    Valiranta, Minna
    van Bellen, Simon
    van der Linden, Marjolein
    van Geel, Bas
    Wang, Guoping
    Yu, Zicheng
    Zaragoza-Castells, Joana
    Zhao, Yan
    Latitudinal limits to the predicted increase of the peatland carbon sink with warming2018In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 8, no 10, p. 907-+Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The carbon sink potential of peatlands depends on the balance of carbon uptake by plants and microbial decomposition. The rates of both these processes will increase with warming but it remains unclear which will dominate the global peatland response. Here we examine the global relationship between peatland carbon accumulation rates during the last millennium and planetary-scale climate space. A positive relationship is found between carbon accumulation and cumulative photosynthetically active radiation during the growing season for mid- to high-latitude peatlands in both hemispheres. However, this relationship reverses at lower latitudes, suggesting that carbon accumulation is lower under the warmest climate regimes. Projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios indicate that the present-day global sink will increase slightly until around AD 2100 but decline thereafter. Peatlands will remain a carbon sink in the future, but their response to warming switches from a negative to a positive climate feedback (decreased carbon sink with warming) at the end of the twenty-first century.

  • 10.
    Kapsch, Marie-Luise
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Graversen, Rune Grand
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Tjernström, Michael
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Springtime atmospheric energy transport and the control of Arctic summer sea-ice extent2013In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 3, no 8, p. 744-748Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The summer sea-ice extent in the Arctic has decreased in recent decades, a feature that has become one of the most distinct signals of the continuing climate change. However, the interannual variability is large—the ice extent by the end of the summer varies by several million square kilometres from year to year. The underlying processes driving this year-to-year variability are not well understood. Here we demonstrate that the greenhouse effect associated with clouds and water vapour in spring is crucial for the development of the sea ice during the subsequent months. In years where the end-of-summer sea-ice extent is well below normal, a significantly enhanced transport of humid air is evident during spring into the region where the ice retreat is encountered. This enhanced transport of humid air leads to an anomalous convergence of humidity, and to an increase of the cloudiness. The increase of the cloudiness and humidity results in an enhancement of the greenhouse effect. As a result, downward long-wave radiation at the surface is larger than usual in spring, which enhances the ice melt. In addition, the increase of clouds causes an increase of the reflection of incoming solar radiation. This leads to the counterintuitive effect: for years with little sea ice in September, the downwelling short-wave radiation at the surface is smaller than usual. That is, the downwelling short-wave radiation is not responsible for the initiation of the ice anomaly but acts as an amplifying feedback once the melt is started.

  • 11. Keogan, Katharine
    et al.
    Daunt, Francis
    Wanless, Sarah
    Phillips, Richard A.
    Walling, Craig A.
    Agnew, Philippa
    Ainley, David G.
    Anker-Nilssen, Tycho
    Ballard, Grant
    Barrett, Robert T.
    Barton, Kerry J.
    Bech, Claus
    Becker, Peter
    Berglund, Per-Arvid
    Bollache, Loic
    Bond, Alexander L.
    Bouwhuis, Sandra
    Bradley, Russell W.
    Burr, Zofia M.
    Camphuysen, Kees
    Catry, Paulo
    Chiaradia, Andre
    Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe
    Cuthbert, Richard
    Dehnhard, Nina
    Descamps, Sebastien
    Diamond, Tony
    Divoky, George
    Drummond, Hugh
    Dugger, Katie M.
    Dunn, Michael J.
    Emmerson, Louise
    Erikstad, Kjell Einar
    Fort, Jerome
    Fraser, William
    Genovart, Meritxell
    Gilg, Olivier
    Gonzalez-Solis, Jacob
    Granadeiro, Jose Pedro
    Gremillet, David
    Hansen, Jannik
    Hanssen, Sveinn A.
    Harris, Mike
    Hedd, April
    Hinke, Jefferson
    Manuel Igual, Jose
    Jahncke, Jaime
    Jones, Ian
    Kappes, Peter J.
    Lang, Johannes
    Langset, Magdalene
    Lescroel, Amelie
    Lorentsen, Svein-Hakon
    Lyver, Phil O'B.
    Mallory, Mark
    Moe, Borge
    Montevecchi, William A.
    Monticelli, David
    Mostello, Carolyn
    Newell, Mark
    Nicholson, Lisa
    Nisbet, Ian
    Olsson, Olof
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Oro, Daniel
    Pattison, Vivian
    Poisbleau, Maud
    Pyk, Tanya
    Quintana, Flavio
    Ramos, Jaime A.
    Ramos, Raul
    Reiertsen, Tone Kirstin
    Rodriguez, Cristina
    Ryan, Peter
    Sanz-Aguilar, Ana
    Schmidt, Niels M.
    Shannon, Paula
    Sittler, Benoit
    Southwell, Colin
    Surman, Christopher
    Svagelj, Walter S.
    Trivelpiece, Wayne
    Warzybok, Pete
    Watanuki, Yutaka
    Weimerskirch, Henri
    Wilson, Peter R.
    Wood, Andrew G.
    Phillimore, Albert B.
    Lewis, Sue
    Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds2018In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 8, no 4, p. 313-318Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Reproductive timing in many taxa plays a key role in determining breeding productivity(1), and is often sensitive to climatic conditions(2). Current climate change may alter the timing of breeding at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in temporal mismatch between the resource requirements of predators and their prey(3). This is of particular concern for higher-trophic-level organisms, whose longer generation times confer a lower rate of evolutionary rescue than primary producers or consumers(4). However, the disconnection between studies of ecological change in marine systems makes it difficult to detect general changes in the timing of reproduction(5). Here, we use a comprehensive meta-analysis of 209 phenological time series from 145 breeding populations to show that, on average, seabird populations worldwide have not adjusted their breeding seasons over time (-0.020 days yr(-1)) or in response to sea surface temperature (SST) (-0.272 days degrees C-1) between 1952 and 2015. However, marked between-year variation in timing observed in resident species and some Pelecaniformes and Suliformes (cormorants, gannets and boobies) may imply that timing, in some cases, is affected by unmeasured environmental conditions. This limited temperature-mediated plasticity of reproductive timing in seabirds potentially makes these top predators highly vulnerable to future mismatch with lower-trophic-level resources(2).

  • 12. Knoblauch, Christian
    et al.
    Beer, Christian
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Liebner, Susanne
    Grigoriev, Mikhail N.
    Pfeiffer, Eva-Maria
    Methane production as key to the greenhouse gas budget of thawing permafrost2018In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 8, no 4, p. 309-312Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Permafrost thaw liberates frozen organic carbon, which is decomposed into carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). The release of these greenhouse gases (GHGs) forms a positive feedback to atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations and accelerates climate change(1,2). Current studies report a minor importance of CH4 production in water-saturated (anoxic) permafrost soils(3-6) and a stronger permafrost carbon-climate feedback from drained (oxic) soils(1,7). Here we show through seven-year laboratory incubations that equal amounts of CO2 and CH4 are formed in thawing permafrost under anoxic conditions after stable CH4-producing microbial communities have established. Less permafrost carbon was mineralized under anoxic conditions but more CO2-carbon equivalents (CO2Ce) were formed than under oxic conditions when the higher global warming potential (GWP) of CH4 is taken into account(8). A model of organic carbon decomposition, calibrated with the observed decomposition data, predicts a higher loss of permafrost carbon under oxic conditions (113 +/- 58 g CO2-C kgC(-1) (kgC, kilograms of carbon)) by 2100, but a twice as high production of CO2-Ce (241 +/- 138 g CO2-Ce kgC(-1)) under anoxic conditions. These findings challenge the view of a stronger permafrost carbon-climate feedback from drained soils1,7 and emphasize the importance of CH4 production in thawing permafrost on climate-relevant timescales.

  • 13. Koven, Charles D.
    et al.
    Hugelius, Gustaf
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Stanford University, USA.
    Lawrence, David M.
    Wieder, William R.
    Higher climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon in cold than warm climates2017In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 7, no 11, p. 817-822Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The projected loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere resulting from climate change is a potentially large but highly uncertain feedback to warming. The magnitude of this feedback is poorly constrained by observations and theory, and is disparately represented in Earth system models (ESMs)(1-3). To assess the climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon, we calculate apparent soil carbon turnover times(4) that reflect long-term and broad-scale rates of decomposition. Here, we show that the climatological temperature control on carbon turnover in the top metre of global soils is more sensitive in cold climates than in warm climates and argue that it is critical to capture this emergent ecosystem property in global-scale models. We present a simplified model that explains the observed high cold-climate sensitivity using only the physical scaling of soil freeze-thaw state across climate gradients. Current ESMs fail to capture this pattern, except in anESMthat explicitly resolves vertical gradients in soil climate and carbon turnover. An observed weak tropical temperature sensitivity emerges in a different model that explicitly resolves mineralogical control on decomposition. These results support projections of strong carbon- climate feedbacks from northern soils(5,6) and demonstrate a method for ESMs to capture this emergent behaviour.

  • 14.
    Norberg, Jon
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology. Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Urban, Mark C.
    Vellend, Mark
    Klausmeier, Christopher A.
    Loeuille, Nicolas
    Eco-evolutionary responses of biodiversity to climate change2012In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 2, no 10, p. 747-751Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change is predicted to alter global species diversity(1), the distribution of human pathogens' and ecosystem services(3). Forecasting these changes and designing adequate management of future ecosystem services will require predictive models encompassing the most fundamental biotic responses. However, most present models omit important processes such as evolution and competition(4,5). Here we develop a spatially explicit eco-evolutionary model of multi-species responses to climate change. We demonstrate that both dispersal and evolution differentially mediate extinction risks and biodiversity alterations through time and across climate gradients. Together, high genetic variance and low dispersal best minimized extinction risks. Surprisingly, high dispersal did not reduce extinctions, because the shifting ranges of some species hastened the decline of others. Evolutionary responses dominated during the later stages of climatic changes and in hot regions. No extinctions occurred without competition, which highlights the importance of including species interactions in global biodiversity models. Most notably, climate change created extinction and evolutionary debts, with changes in species richness and traits occuring long after climate stabilization. Therefore, even if we halt anthropogenic climate change today, transient eco-evolutionary dynamics would ensure centuries of additional alterations in global biodiversity.

  • 15.
    Nykvist, Björn
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Nilsson, Måns
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute. KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Stockholm.
    Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles2015In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 5, no 4, p. 329-332Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    To properly evaluate the prospects for commercially competitive battery electric vehicles (BEV) one must have accurate information on current and predicted cost of battery packs. The literature reveals that costs are coming down, but with large uncertainties on past, current and future costs of the dominating Li-ion technology1, 2, 3. This paper presents an original systematic review, analysing over 80 different estimates reported 2007–2014 to systematically trace the costs of Li-ion battery packs for BEV manufacturers. We show that industry-wide cost estimates declined by approximately 14% annually between 2007 and 2014, from above US$1,000 per kWh to around US$410 per kWh, and that the cost of battery packs used by market-leading BEV manufacturers are even lower, at US$300 per kWh, and has declined by 8% annually. Learning rate, the cost reduction following a cumulative doubling of production, is found to be between 6 and 9%, in line with earlier studies on vehicle battery technology2. We reveal that the costs of Li-ion battery packs continue to decline and that the costs among market leaders are much lower than previously reported. This has significant implications for the assumptions used when modelling future energy and transport systems and permits an optimistic outlook for BEVs contributing to low-carbon transport.

  • 16.
    Persson, Åsa
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Business leaders2011In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 1, no 9, p. 426-427Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 17. Suggitt, Andrew J.
    et al.
    Wilson, Robert J.
    Isaac, Nick J. B.
    Beale, Colin M.
    Auffret, Alistair G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden.
    August, Tom
    Bennie, Jonathan J.
    Crick, Humphrey Q. P.
    Duffield, Simon
    Fox, Richard
    Hopkins, John J.
    Macgregor, Nicholas A.
    Morecroft, Mike D.
    Walker, Kevin J.
    Maclean, Ilya M. D.
    Extinction risk from climate change is reduced by microclimatic buffering2018In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 8, no 8, p. 713-+Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Protecting biodiversity against the impacts of climate change requires effective conservation strategies that safeguard species at risk of extinction(1). Microrefugia allowed populations to survive adverse climatic conditions in the past(2,3), but their potential to reduce extinction risk from anthropogenic warming is poorly understood(3-5), hindering our capacity to develop robust in situ measures to adapt conservation to climate change(6). Here, we show that microclimatic heterogeneity has strongly buffered species against regional extirpations linked to recent climate change. Using more than five million distribution records for 430 climate-threatened and range-declining species, population losses across England are found to be reduced in areas where topography generated greater variation in the microclimate. The buffering effect of topographic microclimates was strongest for those species adversely affected by warming and in areas that experienced the highest levels of warming: in such conditions, extirpation risk was reduced by 22% for plants and by 9% for insects. Our results indicate the critical role of topographic variation in creating microrefugia, and provide empirical evidence that microclimatic heterogeneity can substantially reduce extinction risk from climate change.

  • 18. Tanner, Thomas
    et al.
    Lewis, David
    Wrathall, David
    Bronen, Robin
    Thomalla, Frank
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Livelihood resilience in the face of climate change2015In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 5, no 1, p. 23-26Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The resilience concept requires greater attention to human livelihoods if it is to address the limits to adaptation strategies and the development needs of the planet's poorest and most vulnerable people. Although the concept of resilience is increasingly informing research and policy, its transfer from ecological theory to social systems leads to weak engagement with normative, social and political dimensions of climate change adaptation. A livelihood perspective helps to strengthen resilience thinking by placing greater emphasis on human needs and their agency, empowerment and human rights, and considering adaptive livelihood systems in the context of wider transformational changes.

  • 19.
    Thornton, Brett
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Crill, Patrick
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Microbial lid on subsea methane2015In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 5, p. 723-724Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Submarine permafrost thaw in the Arctic has been suggested as a trigger for the release of large quantities of methane to the water column, and subsequently the atmosphere - with important implications for global warming. Now research shows that microbial oxidation of methane at the thaw front can effectively prevent its release.

  • 20.
    Winder, Monika
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Lake warming mimics fertilization2012In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 2, p. 771-772Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Successful nutrient management has helped many lakes recover from the effects of phosphorus pollution. Now research suggests that climate warming can cause some of the same problems to return.

1 - 20 of 20
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