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  • 1.
    Gonzalez, Nichel
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology.
    Svenson, Ola
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology. Decision Research, Oregon, USA.
    Growth and decline of assets: On biased judgments of asset accumulation and investment decisions2014In: Polish Psychological Bulletin, ISSN 0079-2993, E-ISSN 1641-7844, Vol. 45, no 1, p. 29-35Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Previous research showed that accumulations of capital following stationary interest rates are underestimated byhuman judges. Hyperbolic discounting was suggested as a descriptive and explanatory model for this phenomenon. First,we investigated judged accumulated capital after a period of annual growth and decline. The degree of underestimationincreased with accumulated growth and the results supported hyperbolic discounting as a descriptive model on the grouplevel. However, the hyperbolic model did not apply to the data for one third of the participants. Second, we investigatedhow investment decisions were related to capital accumulation before the investments and to judgments of the possibleoutcomes of the future investments. To our surprise, the participants’ judgments of expected future accumulated capitaldid not add predictive power to predictions based on whether there was growth or decline before the investment decision.Unfortunately this strategy leads to suboptimal investment decisions.

  • 2.
    Svenson, Ola
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology.
    Tyszka, Tadeusz
    Psychological processes in decision making: probabilities, risk and chance2014In: Polish Psychological Bulletin, ISSN 0079-2993, E-ISSN 1641-7844, Vol. 45, no 1, p. 1-2Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Even though, we all want to use the information that is available to us in an optimal way when we make decisions, we are not always able to do so. This is particularly true for intuitive unaided decisions and therefore the set of six papers in this special issue section investigate some of these shortcomings and gives us some hints as how to overcome them. Decisions concern the future but in many contexts what will happen in the future is not certain and different outcomes could follow a decision. Hence, many decisions have to be taken under risk and uncertainty, which is the main theme of the papers of this section. Because, the uncertainty of the future is often described by probabilities of different outcomes and consequences of a decision, the papers in this section have studied different aspects of probability from a psychological process perspective. The section covers the following. (1) A critical realist perspective on decisions involving risk and uncertainty, (2) format dependent probabilities and additivity neglect,(3) information acquisition patterns in risky choice framing, (4) biased judgments of asset cumulation and investment decisions, (5) the confidence-frequency effect: a heuristic explanation, and (6) belief in others' trustworthiness and trusting behavior.

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