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  • 1.
    Lindenfors, Patrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Zoology, Animal Ecology. Stockholm University, Faculty of Humanities, Department of Archaeology and Classical Studies, Centre for Cultural Evolution. Institute for Future Studies, Sweden; University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Jansson, Fredrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Humanities, Department of Archaeology and Classical Studies, Centre for Cultural Evolution. Mälardalen University, Sweden.
    Yi-ting, Wang
    Lindberg, Staffan
    Investigating Sequences in Ordinal Data: A New Approach With Adapted Evolutionary Models2018In: Political Science Research and Methods, ISSN 2049-8470, E-ISSN 2049-8489, Vol. 6, no 3, p. 449-466Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents a new approach for studying temporal sequences across ordinal variables. It involves three complementary approaches (frequency tables, transitional graphs, and dependency tables), as well as an established adaptation based on Bayesian dynamical systems, inferring a general system of change. The frequency tables count pairs of values in two variables and transitional graphs depict changes, showing which variable tends to attain high values first. The dependency tables investigate which values of one variable are prerequisites for values in another, as a more direct test of causal hypotheses. We illustrate the proposed approaches by analyzing the V-Dem dataset, and show that changes in electoral democracy are preceded by changes in freedom of expression and access to alternative information.

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  • 2. Wilson, Matthew C.
    et al.
    Medzihorsky, Juraj
    Maerz, Seraphine F.
    Lindenfors, Patrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Humanities, Department of Archaeology and Classical Studies, Centre for Cultural Evolution. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Zoology. Institute for Futures Studies, Sweden.
    Edgell, Amanda B.
    Boese, Vanessa A.
    Lindberg, Staffan I.
    Episodes of liberalization in autocracies: a new approach to quantitatively studying democratization2023In: Political Science Research and Methods, ISSN 2049-8470, E-ISSN 2049-8489, Vol. 11, no 3, p. 501-520Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper introduces a new approach to the quantitative study of democratization. Building on the comparative case-study and large-N literature, it outlines an episode approach that identifies the discrete beginning of a period of political liberalization, traces its progression, and classifies episodes as successful versus different types of failing outcomes, thus avoiding potentially fallacious assumptions of unit homogeneity. We provide a description and analysis of all 383 liberalization episodes from 1900 to 2019, offering new insights on democratic “waves”. We also demonstrate the value of this approach by showing that while several established covariates are valuable for predicting the ultimate outcomes, none explain the onset of a period of liberalization.

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