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  • 1. Aalto, Juha
    et al.
    Riihimäki, Henri
    Meineri, Eric
    Hylander, Kristoffer
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences.
    Luoto, Miska
    Revealing topoclimatic heterogeneity using meteorological station data2017In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 37, no Suppl. 1, p. 544-556Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate is a crucial driver of the distributions and activity of multiple biotic and abiotic processes, and thus high-quality and high-resolution climate data are often prerequisite in various environmental research. However, contemporary gridded climate products suffer critical problems mainly related to sub-optimal pixel size and lack of local topography-driven temperature heterogeneity. Here, by integrating meteorological station data, high-quality terrain information and multivariate modelling, we aim to explicitly demonstrate this deficiency. Monthly average temperatures (1981-2010) from Finland, Sweden and Norway were modelled using generalized additive modelling under (1) a conventional (i.e. considering geographical location, elevation and water cover) and (2) a topoclimatic framework (i.e. also accounting for solar radiation and cold-air pooling). The performance of the topoclimatic model was significantly higher than the conventional approach for most months, with bootstrapped mean R-2 for the topoclimatic model varying from 0.88 (January) to 0.95 (October). The estimated effect of solar radiation was evident during summer, while cold air pooling was identified to improve local temperature estimates in winter. The topoclimatic modelling exposed a substantial temperature heterogeneity within coarser landscape units (>5 degrees C/1 km(-2) in summer) thus unveiling a wide range of potential microclimatic conditions neglected by the conventional approach. Moreover, the topoclimatic model predictions revealed a pronounced asymmetry in average temperature conditions, causing isotherms during summer to differ several hundreds of metres in altitude between the equator and pole facing slopes. In contrast, cold-air pooling in sheltered landscapes lowered the winter temperatures ca. 1.1 degrees C/100m towards the local minimum altitude. Noteworthy, the analysis implies that conventional models produce biassed predictions of long-term average temperature conditions, with errors likely to be high at sites associated with complex topography.

  • 2. Arowolo, Aisha Olushola
    et al.
    Bhowmik, Avit Kumar
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Qi, Wei
    Deng, Xiangzheng
    Comparison of spatial interpolation techniques to generate high-resolution climate surfaces for Nigeria2017In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 37, p. 179-192Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate datagaps are a major challenge for understanding the impacts of climate change on ecosystems, particularly in highly climate vulnerable countries such as Nigeria. The generation of gridded climate data sets in the form of interpolated surfaces may help to fill climate datagaps and in turns enable climate change impact assessments. This article generates climate surfaces of monthly total precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures for Nigeria at 0.001 degrees spatial resolution by comparing two spatial interpolation techniques, i.e. kriging with external drifts and thin plate splines. Climate data from 43 meteorological stations covering the period of 1960-2012 were used to generate climate surfaces fitting the longitude, latitude, elevation and distance to coastline of the stations as independent variables. Three model error statistics, i.e. root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and index of agreement (d), were used to evaluate and compare the performances of interpolation techniques. The second-order and third-order partial thin plate splines were identified as the optimal models for generating precipitation, and minimum and maximum temperatures surfaces, respectively. The best-fit surfaces yielded an average RMSE, NSE and d of 14.98, 0.87 and 0.97 for precipitation, 0.42, 0.91 and 0.98 for minimum temperature and 0.52, 0.89 and 0.97 for maximum temperature. Our high-resolution climate surfaces are freely available from an online repository and widely applicable for climate change analysis as well as for biological, forestry and agricultural studies in Nigeria.

  • 3.
    Karlsson, Karl-Göran
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping.
    A 10 year cloud climatology over Scandinavia derived from NOAA advanced very high resolution radiometer imagery2003In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 23, no 9, p. 1023-1044Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Results from a satellite-based method to compile regional cloud climatologies covering the Scandinavian region are presented. Systematic processing of multispectral image data from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument has been utilized to provide monthly cloud climatologies covering the period 1991-2000. Considerable local-scale variation of cloud amounts was found in the region. The inland Baltic Sea and adjacent land areas exhibited a large-amplitude annual cycle in cloudiness (high cloud amounts in winter, low cloud amounts in summer) whereas a weak-amplitude reversed annual cycle (high cloud amounts with a weak maximum in summer) was found for the Scandinavian mountain range. As a contrast, conditions over the Norwegian Sea showed high and almost unchanged cloud amounts during the course of the year. Some interesting exceptions to these patterns were also seen locally. The quality of the satellite-derived cloud climatology was examined through comparisons with climatologies derived from surface cloud observations, from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts ERA-40 data set. In general, cloud amount deviations from surface observations were smaller than 10% except for some individual winter months, when the separability between clouds and snow-covered cold land surfaces is often poor. The ISCCP data set showed a weaker annual cycle in cloudiness, generally caused by higher summer-time cloud amounts in the region. Very good agreement was found with the ERA-40 data set, especially for the summer season. However, ERA-40 showed higher cloud amounts than SCANDIA and ISCCP during the winter season. The derived cloud climatology is affected by errors due to temporal AVHRR sensor degradation, but they appear to be small for this particular study. The data set is proposed as a valuable data set for validation of cloud description in numerical weather prediction and regional climate simulation models.

  • 4.
    Koutsouris, Alexander J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Chen, Deliang
    Lyon, Steve W.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Comparing global precipitation data sets in eastern Africa: a case study of Kilombero Valley, Tanzania2016In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 36, no 4, p. 2000-2014Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In the face of limited or no precipitation data, global precipitation data sets (GPDs) may provide a viable alternative to gauge or ground radar data. This study aims to provide guidance to the choice of GPDs targeting scales relevant to water resources management in data poor regions. Specifically, the 34 000 km(2) Kilombero Valley in central Tanzania, where water resource management is seen as integral to poverty reduction and food security, is used as a case study for performance evaluation of seven GPDs and their ensemble mean against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) multi-satellite precipitation analysis research-grade product v7 (TRMMv7). The GPDs include one satellite rainfall product [Climate Prediction Center morphing technique v1.0 CRT (CMORPH)], three reanalysis products [Climate Forecasting System Reanalysis (CFSR), European reanalysis interim (ERA-i) and Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA)] and three interpolated data sets [Climate Research Unit Time Series 3.21 (CRU), Global Precipitation and Climatology Center v6 data set (GPCC) and University of Delaware Air Temperature and Precipitation v3.01 data set (UDEL)]. Standard statistical performance measures and spatial patterns were evaluated for the common overlap time period 1998-2010. For this region, the principal seasonality of the climatology was well represented in all GPDs; however, the intraseasonal variability and the spatial precipitation patterns were less well represented. The ensemble mean and GPCC had the best performance with regard to the analysis of the time series while CMORPH and GPCC had the best performance with regard to the spatial pattern analysis. These results indicate that the spatial scale intended for application is a major factor impacting the suitability of a given GPD for hydrometrological studies that form a basis for development of water management strategies.

  • 5. Laird, Neil F.
    et al.
    Metz, Nicholas D.
    Gaudet, Lauriana
    Grasmick, Coltin
    Higgins, Lindsey
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Loeser, Carlee
    Zelinsky, David A.
    Climatology of cold season lake-effect cloud bands for the North American Great Lakes2017In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 37, no 4, p. 2111-2121Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) visible imagery was used to identify lake-effect (LE) clouds in the North American Great Lakes region for the cold seasons (October-March) of 1997/1998 through 2013/2014 to provide a comprehensive climatological description of the seasonal and interannual variability of LE cloud bands. During the average cold season, at least 60% of days each month had LE clouds over some portion of the Great Lakes region and nearly 75% of all LE days had LE clouds present over several lakes simultaneously. Wind-parallel bands (WPB) are observed far more frequently than any other type of LE over Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron during the months of December, January, and February. Over Lake Erie, the occurrence of days per month with WPB was found to be approximately 5-10% greater than days with shore-parallel bands (SPBs) throughout the entire cold season. The greatest frequency of SPB occurrences in the Great Lakes region was over Lake Ontario during the months of January and February (approximate to 20% of days). In addition, Lake Ontario was the only lake where the frequencies of WPB and SPB occurrences were fairly similar each month. The annual frequency of WPB occurrences are the most variable among the Great Lakes, decreasing in frequency from the western lakes toward the eastern lakes. Lake Ontario has the largest annual frequency of SPB occurrences and the greatest variation in SPB annual frequency. Lake Huron has the second largest annual frequency of SPB days with small interannual variation. The primary differences of the annual frequency of lake-to-lake (L2L) LE occurrences when compared with previous research were a greater variability in the L2L annual frequency of Superior-to-Michigan connections, greater frequency of Michigan-to-Huron connections, and less frequent occurrences for Superior-to-Huron and Michigan-to-Erie connections.

  • 6.
    Lyon, Steve
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Changes in catchment-scale recession flow properties in response to permafrost thawing in the Yukon River Basin2010In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 30, no 14, p. 2138-2145Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Permafrost influences the hydrologic response of a catchment. In this study, we test the ability of recession flow analysis to reflect thawing of permafrost at the catchment scale for the well-studied Yukon river basin (YRB), covering large portions of Alaska, USA and parts of Canada. The changes in the recession flow properties detected in the YRB agree well with observations of permafrost thawing across central Alaska. In addition, there is good agreement between the relative increases in recession flow intercept (a proxy for effective depth to permafrost) and the relative annual increases in groundwater flow (independently assessed as a permafrost thawing effect) in the YRB catchments that have exhibited such groundwater flow increases. This study demonstrates the utility of recession flow analysis to reflect catchment-scale changes in permafrost across a variety of permafrost conditions. The strength of this method is that it requires only daily observations of streamflow to reflect permafrost thawing on much larger measurement support scales than the local scales of direct permafrost observations.

  • 7. Rydval, Milos
    et al.
    Gunnarson, Björn E.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Loader, Neil J.
    Cook, Edward R.
    Druckenbrod, Daniel L.
    Wilson, Rob
    Spatial reconstruction of Scottish summer temperatures from tree rings2017In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 37, no 3, p. 1540-1556Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A detailed understanding of past temporal patterns and spatial expression of temperature variations is important to place recent anthropogenic climate change into a longer term context. In order to fill the current gap in our understanding of northwest European temperature variability, point-by-point principal component regression was used to reconstruct a spatial field of 0.5 degrees temperature grids across Scotland. A sequence of reconstructions utilizing several combinations of detrending and disturbance correction procedures, and a selection of tree-ring parameters [including ring width (RW), maximum latewood density (MXD) and blue intensity (BI)] was used in an evaluation of reconstruction skill. The high resolution of the reconstructed field serves also as a diagnostic tool to spatially assess the temperature reconstruction potential of local chronologies. Best reconstruction results, reaching calibration r(2)=65.8% and verification r(2)=63.7% in central Scotland over the 1901-1976 period, were achieved using disturbance-corrected and signal-free detrended RW chronologies merged with BI data after low-pass (high-pass) filtering the RW (BI) chronologies. Calibration and verification r(2)>50% was attained for central, north and east Scotland, >40% in west and northwest, and >30% in southern Scotland with verification of nearly all grids showing some reconstruction skill. However, the full calibration potential of reconstructions outside central Scotland was reduced either due to residual disturbance trends undetected by the disturbance correction procedure or due to other climatic or non-climatic factors which may have adversely affected the strength of the climate signal.

  • 8.
    Salih, Abubakr A. M.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Körnich, Heiner
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Tjernström, Michael
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Climate impact of deforestation over South Sudan in a regional climate model2013In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 33, no 10, p. 2362-2375Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study examines the sensitivity of climate to changes in vegetation cover and land use in South Sudan. The focus lies on the effect of deforestation on precipitation and surface temperature especially during the rainy season. Sensitivity experiments are performed with the third version of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) where the present forest and vegetation cover south of 10 degrees N in Sudan are replaced by either grass or, as an extreme case, desert. The model experiments were conducted for a time period of almost 21 years, from January 1989 to August 2009, and were preceded by a control experiment to ascertain the fidelity of the model simulations. The experiments indicate that the vegetation changes affect precipitation and surface temperature in both Southern and Central Sudan significantly although the land cover changes were imposed only in the south. The precipitation during the rainy season (June through September) was reduced in the perturbed region by about 0.1-2.1 mm d(-1) for the desert scenario and by 0.1-0.9 mm d(-)1 for the grass scenario. The surface temperature increases by about 1.2 and 2.4 degrees C in the grass and desert scenario, respectively. The precipitation reduction is thus not only local but also extends to Central Sudan and neighbouring regions. The study demonstrates significant dependency for Southern and Central Sudan precipitation on the land use in Southern Sudan and indicates that the deforestation has both local and non-local regional climatic effects.

  • 9. Seim, Andrea
    et al.
    Treydte, Kerstin
    Trouet, Valerie
    Frank, David
    Fonti, Patrick
    Tegel, Willy
    Panayotov, Momchil
    Fernandez-Donado, Laura
    Krusic, Paul
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Buentgen, Ulf
    Climate sensitivity of Mediterranean pine growth reveals distinct east-west dipole2015In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 35, no 9, p. 2503-2513Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The European Mediterranean region is governed by a characteristic climate of summer drought that is likely to increase in duration and intensity under predicted climate change. However, large-scale network analyses investigating spatial aspects of pre-instrumental drought variability for this biogeographic zone are still scarce. In this study we introduce 54 mid- to high-elevation tree-ring width (TRW) chronologies comprising 2186 individual series from pine trees (Pinus spp.). This compilation spans a 4000-km east-west transect from Spain to Turkey, and was subjected to quality control and standardization prior to the development of site chronologies. A principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to identify spatial growth patterns during the network's common period 1862-1976, and new composite TRW chronologies were developed and investigated. The PCA reveals a common variance of 19.7% over the 54 Mediterranean pine chronologies. More interestingly, a dipole pattern in growth variability is found between the western (15% explained variance) and eastern (9.6%) sites, persisting back to 1330 AD. Pine growth on the Iberian Peninsula and Italy favours warm early growing seasons, but summer drought is most critical for ring width formation in the eastern Mediterranean region. Synoptic climate dynamics that have been in operation for the last seven centuries have been identified as the driving mechanism of a distinct east-west dipole in the growth variability of Mediterranean pines.

  • 10.
    Syed, Faisal Saeed
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Giorgi, F.
    Pal, J. S.
    Keay, Kevin
    Regional climate model simulation of winter climate over Central-Southwest Asia, with emphasis on NAO and ENSO effects2010In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 30, no 2, p. 220-235Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We present a regional climate modeling study of the winter climate of Central-Southwest Asia (CSWA), focusing on the mean model climatology of temperature and precipitation, the simulated storm characteristics and the effects of El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on storm activity and precipitation. Forty-three winter seasons are simulated with the model RegCM3 driven by ERA40 reanalysis fields over a region encompassing CSWA and the Mediterranean sector. The model shows a good performance in reproducing the observed mean surface climate of the region as well as the characteristics of the western disturbances affecting CSWA. Observations show that both the NAO and ENSO have a substantial influence oil the CSWA climate, particularly in the region of Northern Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan, where precipitation increases (decreases) during the positive (negative) NAO phase and warm (cold) ENSO phase. The model captures well the observed signals and a detailed storm analysis shows that they are mostly associated with an intensification of western disturbances originating in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East regions and moving eastward across a 500 hPa trough situated over the CSWA during the positive NAO and warm ENSO phases. The NAO and ENSO signals are reinforced by enhanced moisture sources from the Mediterranean, Caspian and Arabian Seas. Our study provides encouraging indications towards the use of the model RegCM3 for climate simulations over CSWA.

  • 11.
    Tyagi, Bhishma
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Satyanarayana, A. N. V.
    Coherent structures contributions in fluxes of momentum and heat at two tropical sites during pre-monsoon thunderstorm season2014In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 34, no 5, p. 1575-1584Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    An attempt has been made to differentiate percentage contribution of coherent structures (CS) in the turbulent fluxes of heat and momentum during thunderstorm days (TD) and non-thunderstorm days (NTD) at two tropical sites. Pre-monsoon months (Marcha to May) fast response data (10Hz) of wind and temperature at Kharagpur (22 degrees 30N, 87 degrees 20E) for years 2007, 2009, and 2010, and at Ranchi (23 degrees 25N, 85 degrees 26E) for years 2008-2010 have been used. The contributions were calculated after decomposing the time series using wavelet technique by two methods: (1) the method of quadrant analysis for each scale, and (2) the method of zero-crossing. Contributions of CS in momentum flux are higher in TD than NTD, whereas for heat flux CS contribution is higher for NTD to that of TD at both sites; however, values are different at both sites and by each method as well. Significant percentages of contributions of CS to the total flux are noticed at both the sites.

  • 12. Wiedermann, Marc
    et al.
    Donges, Jonathan F.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.
    Handorf, Dörthe
    Kurths, Jürgen
    Donner, Reik V.
    Hierarchical structures in Northern Hemispheric extratropical winter ocean-atmosphere interactions2017In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 37, no 10, p. 3821-3836Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In recent years extensive studies on the Earth's climate system have been carried out by means of advanced complex network statistics. The great majority of these studies, however, have been focusing on investigating correlation structures within single climatic fields directly on or parallel to the Earth's surface. Here, we develop a novel approach of node weighted coupled network measures to study correlations between ocean and atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics and construct 18 coupled climate networks, each consisting of two subnetworks. In all cases, one subnetwork represents monthly sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies, while the other is based on the monthly geopotential height (HGT) of isobaric surfaces at different pressure levels covering the troposphere as well as the lower stratosphere. The weighted cross-degree density proves to be consistent with the leading coupled pattern obtained from maximum covariance analysis. Network measures of higher order allow for a further analysis of the correlation structure between the two fields and consistently indicate that in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics the ocean is correlated with the atmosphere in a hierarchical fashion such that large areas of the ocean surface correlate with multiple statistically dissimilar regions in the atmosphere. Ultimately we show that this observed hierarchy is linked to large-scale atmospheric variability patterns, such as the Pacific North American pattern, forcing the ocean on monthly time scales.

  • 13. Zveryaev, Igor I.
    et al.
    Hannachi, Abdel B. A.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
    Interdecadal changes in the links between Mediterranean evaporation and regional atmospheric dynamics during extended cold season2017In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 37, no 3, p. 1322-1340Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Monthly evaporation data for 1958-2010 from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution dataset are used to investigate interdecadal changes in interannual variability of Mediterranean evaporation and its links to regional climate. Analysis performed for the two climate periods characterized by the downward (1958-1978) and upward (1979-2010) trends of evaporation revealed significant season-dependent interdecadal changes in its interannual variability. The largest changes in interannual variability have been revealed during autumn when the leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) are characterized by a zonal dipole pattern (except in November 1979-2010). During winter and spring, the EOF-1 and EOF-2 are characterized, respectively, by a monopole pattern and a zonal dipole and are associated with the East Atlantic (EA) and the East Atlantic-West Russia (EAWR) teleconnections. It is shown that interdecadal changes in interannual variability of Mediterranean evaporation during cold season were determined by the EA transition from the strongly negative to more neutral phase that occurred in late 1970s. Seasonally dependent changes in the structure of the leading evaporation EOFs reflect changing roles of the EA and EAWR which impact near surface air temperature, specific humidity and wind.

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