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  • 1. Alburez-Gutierrez, Diego
    et al.
    Kolk, Martin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Humanities, Department of Archaeology and Classical Studies, Centre for Cultural Evolution. Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Zagheni, Emilio
    Women's Experience of Child Death Over the Life Course: A Global Demographic Perspective2021In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 58, no 5, p. 1715-1735Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The death of a child affects the well-being of parents and families worldwide, but little is known about the scale of this phenomenon. Using a novel methodology from formal demography applied to data from the 2019 Revision of the United Nations World Population Prospects, we provide the first global overview of parental bereavement, its magnitude, prevalence, and distribution over age for the 1950–2000 annual birth cohorts of women. We project that the global burden of parental bereavement will be 1.6 times lower for women born in 2000 than for women born in 1955. Accounting for compositional effects, we anticipate the largest improvements in regions of the Global South, where offspring mortality continues to be a common life event. This study quantifies an unprecedented shift in the timing of parental bereavement from reproductive to retirement ages. Women in the 1985 cohort and subsequent cohorts will be more likely to lose an adult child after age 65 than to lose a young child before age 50, reversing a long-standing global trend. “Child death” will increasingly come to mean the death of adult offspring. We project persisting regional inequalities in offspring mortality and in the availability of children in later life, a particular concern for parents dependent on support from their children after retirement. Nevertheless, our analyses suggest a progressive narrowing of the historical gap between the Global North and South in the near future. These developments have profound implications for demographic theory and highlight the need for policies to support bereaved older parents.

  • 2.
    Andersson, Linus
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, The Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI).
    Jalovaara, Marika
    Uggla, Caroline
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Saarela, Jan
    Less Is More? Repartnering and Completed Cohort Fertility in Finland2022In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 59, no 6, p. 2321-2339Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    An extensive literature theorizes the role of repartnering for cohort fertility and whether union dissolution can be an engine for fertility. A large share of higher order unions are nonmarital cohabitations, but most previous studies on completed cohort fertility have analyzed only marital unions, and none have incorporated nonmarital cohabitations using population-level data. To analyze the relationship between the number of unions and cohort fertility for men and women, we use Poisson regression with Finnish register data to enumerate every birth, marriage, and cohabitation among the 1969–1972 birth cohorts at ages 18–46. We show that dissolutions of first cohabitations are the main pathway to repartnering and that most higher order unions are cohabitations. Nonmarital repartnering is a strong predictor of low fertility. In contrast, remarriage is positively associated with cohort fertility. Because the bulk of first-union dissolutions and higher order unions are nonmarital, repartnering is not an efficient engine for fertility at the aggregate level. Marriage and cohabitation are far from indistinguishable in a country often described as a second demographic transition forerunner.

  • 3.
    Barclay, Kieron J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Germany; Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study, Sweden.
    Donrovich Thorén, Robyn
    Hanson, Heidi A.
    Smith, Ken R.
    The Effects of Marital Status, Fertility, and Bereavement on Adult Mortality in Polygamous and Monogamous Households: Evidence From the Utah Population Database2020In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 57, no 6, p. 2169-2198Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Although the associations among marital status, fertility, bereavement, and adult mortality have been widely studied, much less is known about these associations in polygamous households, which remain prevalent across much of the world. We use data from the Utah Population Database on 110,890 women and 106,979 men born up to 1900, with mortality follow-up into the twentieth century. We examine how the number of wife deaths affects male mortality in polygamous marriages, how sister wife deaths affect female mortality in polygamous marriages relative to the death of a husband, and how marriage order affects the mortality of women in polygamous marriages. We also examine how the number of children ever born and child deaths affect the mortality of men and women as well as variation across monogamous and polygamous unions. Our analyses of women show that the death of a husband and the death of a sister wife have similar effects on mortality. Marriage order does not play a role in the mortality of women in polygamous marriages. For men, the death of one wife in a polygamous marriage increases mortality to a lesser extent than it does for men in monogamous marriages. For polygamous men, losing additional wives has a dose-response effect. Both child deaths and lower fertility are associated with higher mortality. We consistently find that the presence of other kin in the household-whether a second wife, a sister wife, or children-mitigates the negative effects of bereavement.

  • 4.
    Barclay, Kieron J.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. London School of Economics and Political Science, UK; Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Germany.
    Kolk, Martin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Stockholm University, Faculty of Humanities, Department of Archaeology and Classical Studies, Centre for Cultural Evolution. Institute for Futures Studies, Sweden.
    Birth Intervals and Health in Adulthood: A Comparison of Siblings Using Swedish Register Data2018In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 55, no 3, p. 929-955Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A growing body of research has examined whether birth intervals influence perinatal outcomes and child health as well as long-term educational and socioeconomic outcomes. To date, however, very little research has examined whether birth spacing influences long-term health. We use contemporary Swedish population register data to examine the relationship between birth-to-birth intervals and a variety of health outcomes in adulthood: for men, height, physical fitness, and the probability of falling into different body mass index categories; and for men and women, mortality. In models that do not adjust carefully for family background, we find that short and long birth intervals are clearly associated with height, physical fitness, being overweight or obese, and mortality. However, after carefully adjusting for family background using a within-family sibling comparison design, we find that birth spacing is generally not associated with long-term health, although we find that men born after very long birth intervals have a higher probability of being overweight or obese in early adulthood. Overall, we conclude that birth intervals have little independent effect on long-term health outcomes.

  • 5.
    Barclay, Kieron
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. London School of Economics and Political Science, UK.
    Kolk, Martin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Birth order and mortality: a population-based cohort study2015In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 52, no 2, p. 613-639Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study uses Swedish population register data to investigate the relationship between birth order and mortality in adulthood over the ages 30 to 69 for Swedish cohorts born between 1938 and 1960, using a within-family comparison. The main analyses are conducted with discrete-time survival analysis using a within-family comparison, and the estimates are adjusted for age, mother's age at the time of birth, and cohort. Focusing on sibships ranging in size from two to six, we find that mortality risk in adulthood increases with later birth order. The results show that the relative effect of birth order is greater amongst women than amongst men. This pattern is consistent for all the major causes of death, but is particularly pronounced for mortality attributable to cancers of the respiratory system, and external causes. Further analyses where we adjust for adult socioeconomic status and adult educational attainment suggest that social pathways only mediate the relationship between birth order and mortality risk in adulthood to a limited degree.

  • 6.
    Barclay, Kieron
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. London School of Economics and Political Science, UK; Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Germany.
    Kolk, Martin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Stockholm University, Faculty of Humanities, Department of Archaeology and Classical Studies, Centre for the Study of Cultural Evolution. Institute for Futures Studies, Sweden.
    The Long-Term Cognitive and Socioeconomic Consequences of Birth Intervals: A Within-Family Sibling Comparison Using Swedish Register Data2017In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 54, no 2, p. 459-484Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We examine the relationship between birth-to-birth intervals and a variety of mid- and long-term cognitive and socioeconomic outcomes, including high school GPA, cognitive ability, educational attainment, earnings, unemployment status, and receiving government welfare support. Using contemporary Swedish population register data and a within-family sibling comparison design, we find that neither the birth interval preceding the index person nor the birth interval following the index person are associated with any substantively meaningful changes in mid- or long-term outcomes. This is true even for individuals born before or after birth-to-birth intervals of less than 12 months. We conclude that in a contemporary high-income welfare state, there appears to be no relationship between unusually short or long birth intervals and adverse long-term outcomes.

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  • 7.
    Barclay, Kieron
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study, Sweden; Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Germany.
    Smith, Ken R.
    Birth Spacing and Health and Socioeconomic Outcomes Across the Life Course: Evidence From the Utah Population Database 2022In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 59, no 3, p. 1117-1142Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The relationship between birth interval length and child outcomes has received increased attention in recent years, but few studies have examined offspring outcomes across the life course in North America. We use data from the Utah Population Database to examine the relationship between birth intervals and short- and long-term outcomes: preterm birth, low birth weight (LBW), infant mortality, college degree attainment, occupational status, and adult mortality. Using linear regression, linear probability models, and survival analysis, we compare results from models with and without sibling comparisons. Children born after a birth interval of 9–12 months have a higher probability of LBW, preterm birth, and infant mortality both with and without sibling comparisons; longer intervals are associated with a lower probability of these outcomes. Short intervals before the birth of the next youngest sibling are also associated with LBW, preterm birth, and infant mortality both with and without sibling comparisons. This pattern raises concerns that the sibling comparison models do not fully adjust for within-family factors predicting both spacing and perinatal outcomes. In sibling comparison analyses considering long-term outcomes, not even the very shortest birth intervals are negatively associated with educational or occupational outcomes or with long-term mortality. These findings suggest that extremely short birth intervals may increase the probability of poor perinatal outcomes but that any such disadvantages disappear over the extended life course. 

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  • 8. Borgen, Solveig Topstad
    et al.
    Skeie Hermansen, Are
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, The Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI). University of Oslo, Norway.
    Horizontal Advantage: Choice of Postsecondary Field of Study Among Children of Immigrants2023In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 60, no 4, p. 1031-1058Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Educational expansion has raised the influence of sorting across post sec-ondary educational fields on children's future life chances. Yet, little is known about horizontal ethnic strati fi cation in the choice of field of study among children of immi-grant parents, whose parents often have moderate absolute levels of education relative to native-born parents but tend to be positively selected on education relative to non--migrants in the origin country. Using rich administrative data from Norway, we study the educational careers of immigrant descendants relative to the careers of children of native-born parents. Our results show that children of immigrants from non -European countries have a higher like li hood of entering higher education and enrolling in high--paying fields of study compared with children of natives, despite having poorer school grades and dis advantaged family backgrounds. However, immigrant parents' posi-tive selectivity pro vi des limited insight into why children of immigrants exhibit high ambitions later in their post secondary educational careers. These findings document a per sis tent pattern of horizontal ethnic advantage in post secondary education in which ambitious children of immigrants are more likely to enter into more prestigious and eco-nomically rewarding fields of study than their fellow students with native--born parents.

  • 9.
    Carlson, Elwood
    et al.
    Department of Sociology, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC..
    Hoem, Jan M.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Rychtarikova, Jitka
    Trajectories of Fetal Loss in the Czech Republic1999In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 36, no 3, p. 327-337Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Using data for 555,038 pregnancies conceived in the Czech Re- public in 1987-1990, we show that pronounced differences in fetal survival in the middle trimester ofpregnancy by marital status, edu- cational level, and labor force attachment become much smaller at full term; survival differences by age at conception and number of previous deliveries show relatively constant proportional hazards throughout gestation. Social inequalities in postpartum life chances have been documented previously, but we show that similar in- equalities exist before birth.

  • 10.
    Drefahl, Sven
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    How Does the Age Gap Between Partners Affect Their Survival?2010In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 47, no 2, p. 313-326Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    I use hazard regression methods to examine how the age difference between spouses affects their survival. In many countries, the age difference between spouses at marriage has remained relatively stable for several decades. In Denmark, men are, on average, about three years older than the women they marry. Previous studies of the age gap between spouses with respect to mortality found that having a younger spouse is beneficial, while having an older spouse is detrimental for one's own survival. Most of the observed effects could not be explained satisfactorily until now, mainly because of methodological drawbacks and insufficiency of the data. The most common explanations refer to selection effects, caregiving in later life, and some positive psychological and sociological effects of having a younger spouse. The present study extends earlier work by using longitudinal Danish register data that include the entire history of key demographic events of the whole population from 1990 onward. Controlling for confounding factors such as education and wealth, results suggest that having a younger spouse is beneficial for men but detrimental for women, while having an older spouse is detrimental for both sexes.

  • 11. Dribe, Martin
    et al.
    Debiasi, Enrico
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Public Health Sciences.
    Eriksson, Björn
    The Effect of Parental Loss on Social Mobility in Early Twentieth-Century Sweden2022In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 59, no 3, p. 1093-1115Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Parents are assumed to play a crucial role in the socioeconomic attainment of children. Through investments of both time and resources, they promote the ability, human capital, networks, and motivation of their children to advance socially, or at least to maintain their social position. Consequently, losing a parent in childhood could be detrimental to adult socioeconomic outcomes. We use full-count linked census data and a comprehensive death register to study the effect of parental loss on socioeconomic outcomes in adulthood in Sweden during the first half of the twentieth century. We employ sibling fixed-effects models and the Spanish flu as an exogenous mortality shock to assess the importance of endogeneity bias in associations between parental loss and socioeconomic outcomes. Maternal death led to worse socioeconomic outcomes in adulthood in terms of occupational and class attainment, as well as for social mobility. The effects seem to be causal but the magnitudes were small. For paternal death, we find no consistent pattern, and in most models there was no effect on sons’ socioeconomic outcomes. The patterns were similar for sons and daughters and do not support the theory that parental loss had important negative effects on socioeconomic outcomes in adulthood.

  • 12.
    Fallesen, Peter
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, The Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI). Rockwool Foundation Research Unit, Denmark.
    Breen, Richard
    Temporary Life Changes and the Timing of Divorce2016In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 53, no 5, p. 1377-1398Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Marriage is a risky undertaking that people enter with incomplete information about their partner and their future life circumstances. A large literature has shown how new information gained from unforeseen but long-lasting or permanent changes in life circumstances may trigger a divorce. We extend this literature by considering how information gained from a temporary change in life circumstances-in our case, a couple having a child with infantile colic-may affect divorce behavior. Although persistent life changes are known to induce divorce, we argue that a temporary stressful situation allows couples more quickly to discern the quality of their relationship, in some cases leading them to divorce sooner than they otherwise would have. We formalize this argument in a model of Bayesian updating and test it using data from Denmark. We find that the incidence of infantile colic shortens the time to divorce or disruption among couples who would have split up anyway.

  • 13.
    Fors, Stefan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Aging Research Center (ARC), (together with KI). Region Stockholm, Sweden.
    Wastesson, Jonas W.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Aging Research Center (ARC), (together with KI). Karolinska Institutet, Sweden.
    Morin, Lucas
    Growing Income-Based Inequalities in Old-Age Life Expectancy in Sweden, 2006-20152021In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 58, no 6, p. 2117-2138Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Sweden is known for high life expectancy and economic egalitarianism, yet in recent decades it has lost ground in both respects. This study tracked income inequality in old-age life expectancy and life span variation in Sweden between 2006 and 2015, and examined whether patterns varied across levels of neighborhood deprivation. Income inequality in remaining life expectancy at ages 65, 75, and 85 increased. The gap in life expectancy at age 65 grew by more than a year between the lowest and the highest income quartiles, for both men (from 3.4 years in 2006 to 4.5 years in 2015) and women (from 2.3 to 3.4 years). This widening income gap in old-age life expectancy was driven by different rates of mortality improvement: individuals with higher incomes increased their life expectancy at a faster rate than did those with lower incomes. Women with the lowest incomes experienced no improvement in old-age life expectancy. Furthermore, life span variation increased in the lowest income quartile, while it decreased slightly among those in the highest quartile. Income was found to be a stronger determinant of old-age life expectancy than neighborhood deprivation.

  • 14.
    Grätz, Michael
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, The Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI). University of Lausanne, Switzerland.
    Barclay, Kieron J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Germany.
    Wiborg, Øyvind
    Lyngstad, Torkild H.
    Karhula, Aleksi
    Erola, Jani
    Präg, Patrick
    Laidley, Thomas
    Conley, Dalton
    Sibling Similarity in Education Across and Within Societies2021In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 58, no 3, p. 1011-1037Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The extent to which siblings resemble each other measures the omnibus impact of family background on life chances. We study sibling similarity in cognitive skills, school grades, and educational attainment in Finland, Germany, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. We also compare sibling similarity by parental education and occupation within these societies. The comparison of sibling correlations across and within societies allows us to characterize the omnibus impact of family background on education across social landscapes. Across countries, we find larger population-level differences in sibling similarity in educational attainment than in cognitive skills and school grades. In general, sibling similarity in education varies less across countries than sibling similarity in earnings. Compared with Scandinavian countries, the United States shows more sibling similarity in cognitive skills and educational attainment but less sibling similarity in school grades. We find that socioeconomic differences in sibling similarity vary across parental resources, countries, and measures of educational success. Sweden and the United States show greater sibling similarity in educational attainment in families with a highly educated father, and Finland and Norway show greater sibling similarity in educational attainment in families with a low-educated father. We discuss the implications of our results for theories about the impact of institutions and income inequality on educational inequality and the mechanisms that underlie such inequality.

  • 15. Hellstrand, Julia
    et al.
    Nisén, Jessica
    Miranda, Vitor
    Fallesen, Peter
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, The Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI). ROCKWOOL Foundation, Denmark.
    Dommermuth, Lars
    Myrskylä, Mikko
    Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries2021In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 58, no 4, p. 1373-1399Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    With historically similar patterns of high and stable cohort fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen as forerunners in demographic behavior. Furthermore, Nordic fertility trends have strongly influenced fertility theories. However, the period fertility decline that started around 2010 in many countries with relatively high fertility is particularly pronounced in the Nordic countries, raising the question of whether Nordic cohort fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline and analyze the extent to which it is attributable to tempo or quantum effects. Two key results stand out. First, the decline is mostly attributable to first births but can be observed across all ages from 15 to the mid-30s. This is a reversal from the previous trend in which fertility rates in the early 30s increased relatively steadily in those countries in the period 1980–2010. Second, tempo explains only part of the decline. Forecasts indicate that the average Nordic cohort fertility will decline from 2 children for the 1970 cohort to around 1.8 children for the late 1980s cohorts. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its lower expected cohort fertility (below 1.6), and Denmark and Sweden diverge from Finland, Iceland, and Norway in terms of their slower cohort fertility decline. These findings suggest that the conceptualization of the Nordic model of high and stable fertility may need to be revised.

  • 16.
    Holmlund, Helena
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, The Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI). Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    Rainer, Helmut
    Siedler, Thomas
    Meet the parents? Family size and the geographic proximity between adult children and older mothers in Sweden2013In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 50, no 3, p. 903-931Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The aim of this study is to estimate the causal effect of family size on the proximity between older mothers and adult children by using a large administrative data set from Sweden. Our main results show that adult children in Sweden are not constrained by sibship size in choosing where to live: for families with more than one child, sibship size does not affect child-mother proximity. For aging parents, however, having fewer children reduces the probability of having at least one child living nearby, which is likely to have consequences for the intensity of intergenerational contact and eldercare.

  • 17.
    Härkönen, Juho
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, The Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI).
    Kaymakcalan, Hande
    Mäki, Pirjo
    Taanila, Anja
    Prenatal Health, Educational Attainment, and Intergenerational Inequality: The Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 Study2012In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 49, no 2, p. 525-552Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 18.
    John, Ben Malinga
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Germany; University of Malawi, Malawi.
    Nitsche, Natalie
    Indirect Estimation of the Timing of First Union Dissolution With Incomplete Marriage Histories2023In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 60, no 2, p. 411-430Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The lack of nationally representative data with detailed marriage histories in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) impedes a comprehensive understanding of essential aspects of union dissolution, such as the timing of first union dissolution, in these countries. We propose a method for estimating quantum-adjusted measures of the timing of first union dissolution from incomplete marriage histories. This method, indirect life table of first union dissolution (ILTUD), estimates the first union survival function from a simple tabulation of ever-married women by duration since first union, classified by union dissolution status (intact vs. dissolved first union). It then uses the relationships between life table functions to generate the distribution of marriages ending each year (⁠θt⁠) for a given marriage cohort. Using this distribution, ILTUD generates quantum-adjusted first union survival rates from which the percentiles of first union dissolution are calculated. ILTUD estimates are consistent with estimates produced using traditional statistical methods, such as the Kaplan–Meier estimator. In addition, ILTUD is simple to implement and has minimal data requirements, which are available in most nationally representative surveys. Thus, the ILTUD method has the potential to broaden our understanding of union dissolution dynamics in LMICs.

  • 19.
    Kolk, Martin
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Stockholm University, Faculty of Humanities, Department of Archaeology and Classical Studies, Centre for Cultural Evolution. Institute for Future Studies, Sweden.
    Andersson, Gunnar
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Two Decades of Same-Sex Marriage in Sweden: A Demographic Account of Developments in Marriage, Childbearing, and Divorce2020In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 57, no 1, p. 147-169Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, we provide demographic insight into the still relatively new family form of same-sex marriage. We focus on period trends in same-sex marriage formation and divorce during 1995-2012 in Sweden and the role of childbearing in same-sex unions. The period begins with the introduction of registered partnership for same-sex couples and also covers the introduction of formal same-sex marriage in 2009. We use register data for the complete population of Sweden to contrast patterns in male and female same-sex marriage formation and divorce. We show that female same-sex union formation increased rapidly over the period, while trends for male same-sex unions increased less. The introduction of same-sex marriage legislation in 2009 appears to have had little effect on the pace of formation of same-sex unions. In contrast, legal changes supporting parental rights in same-sex unions may have fueled the formation of female same-sex marriages as well as parenthood in such unions. Further, we show that divorce risks in the marital unions of two women are much higher than in other types of marriages. We find some convergence of divorce risks across union types at the end of our study period: male same-sex unions have the same divorce risk levels as opposite-sex marriages, and the elevated risks of divorce in female same-sex unions appear to have stabilized at somewhat lower levels than those observed in the late 1990s.

  • 20.
    Kolk, Martin
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Humanities, Department of Archaeology and Classical Studies, Centre for Cultural Evolution. Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Institute for Future Studies, Sweden; Åbo Akademi, Finland.
    Andersson, Linus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, The Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI).
    Pettersson, Emma
    Division of Insurance Medicine, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, Solna, Sweden.
    Drefahl, Sven
    Demography Unit, Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
    The Swedish Kinship Universe: A Demographic Account of the Number of Children, Parents, Siblings, Grandchildren, Grandparents, Aunts/Uncles, Nieces/Nephews, and Cousins Using National Population Registers2023In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 60, no 5, p. 1359-1385Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Given that surprisingly little is known about the demography of human kinship, we provide a demographic account of the kinship networks of individuals in Sweden in 2017 across sex and cohort between ages 0 and 102. We used administrative register data of the full population of Sweden to provide the first kinship enumeration for a complete population based on empirical data. We created ego-focused kinship networks of children, parents, siblings, grandchildren, grandparents, aunts and uncles, nieces and nephews, and cousins. We show the average number of kin of different types, the distribution of the number of kin, and changes in dispersion over time. A large share of all kin of an individual are horizontal kin, such as cousins. We observe the highest number of kin—on average, roughly 20—around age 35. We show differences between matrilineal and patrilineal kin and differences in the kinship structure arising from fertility with more than one childbearing partner, such as half-siblings. The results demonstrate substantial variability in kinship within a population. We discuss our findings in the context of other methods to estimate kinship.

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  • 21. Kröger, Hannes
    et al.
    Hoffmann, Rasmus
    Tarkiainen, Lasse
    Martikainen, Pekka
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Public Health Sciences. University of Helsinki, Finland; Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Germany; Karolinska Institutet, Sweden.
    Comparing Observed and Unobserved Components of Childhood: Evidence From Finnish Register Data on Midlife Mortality From Siblings and Their Parents2018In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 55, no 1, p. 295-318Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, we argue that the long arm of childhood that determines adult mortality should be thought of as comprising an observed part and its unobserved counterpart, reflecting the observed socioeconomic position of individuals and their parents and unobserved factors shared within a family. Our estimates of the observed and unobserved parts of the long arm of childhood are based on family-level variance in a survival analytic regression model, using siblings nested within families as the units of analysis. The study uses a sample of Finnish siblings born between 1936 and 1950 obtained from Finnish census data. Individuals are followed from ages 35 to 72. To explain familial influence on mortality, we use demographic background factors, the socioeconomic position of the parents, and the individuals' own socioeconomic position at age 35 as predictors of all-cause and cause-specific mortality. The observed part-demographic and socioeconomic factors, including region; number of siblings; native language; parents' education and occupation; and individuals' income, occupation, tenancy status, and education-accounts for between 10 % and 25 % of the total familial influence on mortality. The larger part of the influence of the family on mortality is not explained by observed individual and parental socioeconomic position or demographic background and thus remains an unobserved component of the arm of childhood. This component highlights the need to investigate the influence of childhood circumstances on adult mortality in a comprehensive framework, including demographic, social, behavioral, and genetic information from the family of origin.

  • 22.
    Lappegard, Trude
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. University of Oslo, Norway; Statistics Norway, Norway.
    Thomson, Elizabeth
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. University of Wisconsin–Madison, USA.
    Intergenerational Transmission of Multipartner Fertility2018In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 55, no 6, p. 2205-2228Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Using data from administrative registers for the period 1970-2007 in Norway and Sweden, we investigate the intergenerational transmission of multipartner fertility. We find that men and women with half-siblings are more likely to have children with more than one partner. The differences are greater for those with younger versus older half-siblings, consistent with the additional influence of parental separation that may not arise when one has only older half-siblings. The additional risk for those with both older and younger half-siblings suggests that complexity in childhood family relationships also contributes to multipartner fertility. Only a small part of the intergenerational association is accounted for by education in the first and second generations. The association is to some extent gendered. Half-siblings are associated with a greater risk of women having children with a new partner in comparison with men. In particular, maternal half-siblings are more strongly associated with multipartner fertility than paternal half-siblings only for women.

  • 23. Molitoris, Joseph
    et al.
    Barclay, Kieron
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Germany; London School of Economics and Political Science, UK.
    Kolk, Martin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Stockholm University, Faculty of Humanities, Department of Archaeology and Classical Studies, Centre for Cultural Evolution. Institute for Future Studies, Sweden.
    When and Where Birth Spacing Matters for Child Survival: An International Comparison Using the DHS2019In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 56, no 4, p. 1349-1370Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A large body of research has found an association between short birth intervals and the risk of infant mortality in developing countries, but recent work on other perinatal outcomes from highly developed countries has called these claims into question, arguing that previous studies have failed to adequately control for unobserved heterogeneity. Our study addresses this issue by estimating within-family models on a sample of 4.5 million births from 77 countries at various levels of development. We show that after unobserved maternal heterogeneity is controlled for, intervals shorter than 36 months substantially increase the probability of infant death. However, the importance of birth intervals as a determinant of infant mortality varies inversely with maternal education and the strength of the relationship varies regionally. Finally, we demonstrate that the mortality-reducing effects of longer birth intervals are strong at low levels of development but decline steadily toward zero at higher levels of development. These findings offer a clear way to reconcile previous research showing that birth intervals are important for perinatal outcomes in low-income countries but are much less consequential in high-income settings.

  • 24.
    Mussino, Eleonora
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Wilson, Ben
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Andersson, Gunnar
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    The Fertility of Immigrants From Low-Fertility Settings: Adaptation in the Quantum and Tempo of Childbearing?2021In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 58, no 6, p. 2169-2191Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Immigrant women who have lived longer in a destination often have relatively low levels of fertility, which is sometimes taken as evidence of the adaptation of behavior. This evidence is almost exclusively based on studies of immigrants from high-fertility settings, while the fertility of immigrants from low-fertility settings has been largely overlooked. Research has also rarely studied the fertility of immigrants who migrated as children, despite the methodological advantages of applying such an approach. This study focuses on women who grew up in Sweden with a migration background from low-fertility origins. We expect that Sweden's welfare regime makes it easier for women to combine childbearing and working life, regardless of migration background, thereby facilitating an adaptation of fertility behavior toward that prevailing in Sweden. We find evidence of adaptation in terms of birth timing for at least half of the country-origin groups that we study, but very little evidence of adaptation in terms of completed fertility. Further, we find that, in comparison with ancestral Swedes, completed fertility differentials are larger for second-generation individuals than for immigrants who arrived during childhood. This is evidence against the notion of “straight-line” adaptation for immigrants and the children of immigrants who are born in Sweden.

  • 25.
    Nedoluzhko, Lesia
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Agadjanian, Victor
    Between Tradition and Modernity: Marriage Dynamics in Kyrgyzstan2015In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 52, no 3, p. 861-882Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The demographic literature on union formation in post-communist Europe typically documents retreat from marriage and increase in cohabitation. However, sociological and anthropological studies of post-Soviet Central Asia often point to a resurgence of various traditional norms and practices, including those surrounding marriage, that were suppressed under Soviet rule. We engage these two perspectives on union formation by analyzing transition to first marriage in Kyrgyzstan both before and after the collapse of the USSR. We use uniquely detailed marriage histories from a nationally representative survey conducted in the period 2011-2012 to examine the dynamics of traditional marital practices among that country's two main ethnic groups-Kyrgyz and Uzbeks-focusing on trends in arranged marriages and in marriages involving bride kidnapping. The analysis reveals instructive ethnic and period differences but also indicates an overall decline in the risks of both types of traditional marriage practices in the post-Soviet era. In fact, although the decline has characterized all marriage types, it was more substantial for traditional marriages. We interpret these trends as evidence of continuing modernization of nuptiality behavior in the region.

  • 26. Saarela, Jan
    et al.
    Wilson, Ben
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. London School of Economics, UK.
    Forced Migration and the Childbearing of Women and Men: A Disruption of the Tempo and Quantum of Fertility?2022In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 59, no 2, p. 707-729Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    It is well known that migrant fertility is associated with age at migration, but little is known about this relationship for forced migrants. We study an example of displacement in which the entire population of Finnish Karelia was forced to move elsewhere in Finland in the 1940s. This displacement was unique because of its size and scale, because we have data on almost the whole population of both men and women who moved, and because of the similarity between origin and destination. These aspects enable us to investigate the disruptive impact of forced migration, net of other factors such as adaptation and selection. For all ages at migration from one to 20, female forced migrants had lower levels of completed fertility than similar women born in present-day Finland, which suggests a permanent impact of migration. However, women born in the same year as the initial forced migration showed no difference, which may indicate the presence of a counterbalancing fertility-increasing effect, as observed elsewhere for people born during a humanitarian crisis. There is less evidence of an impact for men, which suggests a gendered impact of forced migration—and its timing—on fertility. Results are similar after controlling for social and spatial mobility, indicating that there may be no major trade-off between reproduction and these forms of mobility.

  • 27.
    Shi, Jiaxin
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Germany; University of Oxford, UK.
    Kolk, Martin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Institute for Future Studies, Sweden; Åbo Akademi University, Finland.
    How Does Mortality Contribute to Lifetime Pension Inequality?: Evidence From Five Decades of Swedish Taxation Data2022In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 59, no 5, p. 1843-1871Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    As with many social transfer schemes, pension systems around the world are often progressive: individuals with lower incomes receive a higher percentage of their income as a subsequent pension. On the other hand, those with lower earnings have higher mortality and thus accumulate fewer years of pension income. Both of these oppos­ing fac­tors influ­ence the pro­gres­sive­ness of pen­sion sys­tems. Empirical efforts to disentangle the effects of mortality inequality on lifetime pension inequality have been scarce. Using Swedish taxation data linked with death registers for 1970–2018, we study how education and preretirement earnings relate to lifetime pensions from age 60 onward and how mortality inequalities contribute to overall inequalities in lifetime pensions. The results show that a progressive replacement structure and mortality differ ences contribute to the overall distribution of pension payments over the life course. Up to one quarter of lifetime pension inequality is attributable to the greater longevity of socially advantaged groups—particularly among men. Hence, mortality inequalities are an important determinant of the overall degree of between-group income transfers in a pension system, but they are not as important as inequalities in prior earnings. 

  • 28.
    Thomson, Elizabeth
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Lappegard, Trude
    Carlson, Marcia
    Evans, Ann
    Gray, Edith
    Childbearing Across Partnerships in Australia, the United States, Norway, and Sweden2014In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 51, no 2, p. 485-508Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article compares mothers' experience of having children with more than one partner in two liberal welfare regimes (the United States and Australia) and two social democratic regimes (Sweden and Norway). We use survey-based union and birth histories in Australia and the United States and data from national population registers in Norway and Sweden to estimate the likelihood of experiencing childbearing across partnerships at any point in the childbearing career. We find that births with new partners constitute a substantial proportion of all births in each country we study. Despite quite different arrangements for social welfare, the determinants of childbearing across partnerships are very similar. Women who had their first birth at a very young age or who are less well-educated are most likely to have children with different partners. The educational gradient in childbearing across partnerships is also consistently negative across countries, particularly in contrast to educational gradients in childbearing with the same partner. The risk of childbearing across partnerships increased dramatically in all countries from the 1980s to the 2000s, and educational differences also increased, again, in both liberal and social democratic welfare regimes.

  • 29.
    Thomson, Elizabeth
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Winkler-Dvorak, Maria
    Spielauer, Martin
    Prskawetz, Alexia
    Union Instability as an Engine of Fertility? A Microsimulation Model for France2012In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 49, no 1, p. 175-195Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Opportunities for conceiving and bearing children are fewer when unions are not formed or are dissolved during the childbearing years. At the same time, union instability produces a pool of persons who may enter new partnerships and have additional children in stepfamilies. The balance between these two opposing forces and their implications for fertility may depend on the timing of union formation and parenthood. In this article, we estimate models of childbearing, union formation, and union dissolution for female respondents to the 1999 French Etude de l’Histoire Familiale. Model parameters are applied in microsimulations of completed family size. We find that a population of women whose first unions dissolve during the childbearing years will end up with smaller families, on average, than a population in which all unions remain intact. Because new partnerships encourage higher parity progressions, repartnering minimizes the fertility gap between populations with and those without union dissolution. Differences between the two populations are much smaller when family formation is postponed—that is, when union formation and dissolution or first birth occurs after age 30, or when couples delay childbearing after union formation.

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  • 30.
    Thomson, Elizabeth
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. University of Wisconsin–Madison, USA.
    Winkler-Dworak, Maria
    Beaujouan, Éva
    Contribution of the Rise in Cohabiting Parenthood to Family Instability: Cohort Change in Italy, Great Britain, and Scandinavia2019In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 56, p. 2063-2082Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, we investigate through microsimulation the link between cohabiting parenthood and family instability. We identify mechanisms through which increases in cohabiting parenthood may contribute to overall increases in separation among parents, linking micro-level processes to macro-level outcomes. Analyses are based on representative surveys in Italy, Great Britain, and Scandinavia (represented by Norway and Sweden), with full histories of women's unions and births. We first generate parameters for the risk of first and higher-order birth and union events by woman's birth cohort and country. The estimated parameters are used to generate country- and cohort-specific populations of women with stochastically predicted family life courses. We use the hypothetical populations to decompose changes in the percentage of mothers who separate/divorce across maternal birth cohorts (1940s to 1950s, 1950s to 1960s, 1960s to 1970s), identifying how much of the change can be attributed to shifts in union status at first birth and how much is due to change in separation rates for each union type. We find that when cohabiting births were uncommon, increases in parents' separation were driven primarily by increases in divorce among married parents. When cohabiting parenthood became more visible, it also became a larger component, but continued increases in parents' divorce also contributed to increasing parental separation. When cohabiting births became quite common, the higher separation rates of cohabiting parents began to play a greater role than married parents' divorce. When most couples had their first birth in cohabitation, those having children in marriage were increasingly selected from the most stable relationships, and their decreasing divorce rates offset the fact that increasing proportions of children were born in somewhat less stable cohabiting unions.

  • 31.
    Torssander, Jenny
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, The Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI).
    From Child to Parent?: The Significance of Children's Education for Their Parents' Longevity2013In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 50, no 2, p. 637-659Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In addition to own education and other socioeconomic resources, the education of one's children may be important for individual health and longevity. Mothers and fathers born between 1932 and 1941 were analyzed by linking them to their children in the Swedish Multi-generation Register, which covers the total population. Controlling for parents' education, social class, and income attenuates but does not remove the association between children's education and parents' mortality risk. Shared but unmeasured familial background characteristics were addressed by comparing siblings in the parental generation. In these fixed-effects analyses, comparing parents whose children had tertiary education with parents whose children completed only compulsory schooling (the reference group) yields a hazard ratio of 0.79 (95 % CI: 0.70-0.89) when the socioeconomic position of both parents is controlled for. The relationship is certainly not purely causal, but part of it could be if, for example, well-educated adult children use their resources to find the best available health care for their aging parents. I therefore introduce the concept of social foreground and suggest that children's socioeconomic resources may be an important factor in trying to further understand social inequalities in health.

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