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  • 1. Baird, Julia
    et al.
    Plummer, Ryan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Brock University, Canada.
    Bodin, Örjan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Collaborative governance for climate change adaptation in Canada: experimenting with adaptive co-management2016In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 16, no 3, p. 747-758Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The search for strategies to address 'super wicked problems' such as climate change is gaining urgency, and a collaborative governance approach, and adaptive co-management in particular, is increasingly recognized as one such strategy. However, the conditions for adaptive co-management to emerge and the resulting network structures and relational patterns remain unclear in the literature. To address these identified needs, this study examines social relationships from a network perspective while initiating a collaborative multiactor initiative aimed to develop into adaptive co-management for climate change adaptation, an action research project undertaken in the Niagara region of Canada. The project spanned 1 year, and a longitudinal analysis of participants' networks and level of participation in the process was performed. Evidence of support for climate change adaptation from the process included the development of deliberative and adaptive responses to opportunities presented to the group and the development of a strong subgroup of participants where decision-making was centered. However, the complexity of the challenge of addressing climate change, funding constraints, competing initiatives, and the lack of common views among participants may have contributed to the group, highlighting the finding that beneficial network structural features and relational patterns are necessary but not sufficient condition for the development of an adaptive co-management process. The context of climate change adaptation may require a different social network structure and processes than other contexts for adaptive co-management to occur, and there may be limitations to adaptive co-management for dealing with super wicked problems.

  • 2.
    Bodin, Örjan
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Nohrstedt, Daniel
    Baird, Julia
    Summers, Robert
    Plummer, Ryan
    Working at the speed of trust: pre-existing and emerging social ties in wildfire responder networks in Sweden and Canada2019In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 19, no 8, p. 2353-2364Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The frequency and severity of natural hazards are predicted to increase with climate change. Collaboration among actors across scales and organizational boundaries is essential to address this escalation. Pre-existing social networks are generally considered a catalyst enabling actors to more quickly address collective action problems. However, empirically derived knowledge about if, how, and why pre-established social networks facilitate effective collaborations in addressing natural hazards is scarce. We use survey data from crisis responders of large-scale wildfires in Sweden and Canada to investigate factors that shape actors' (i) ability and willingness to form new social ties with other actors and (ii) propensity to activate pre-existing social ties. Our results show that many new social ties were established in both events, but also that pre-existing ties comprised a considerable proportion (54-82%) of all ties in use. Using exponential random graph models for temporal networks, we demonstrate that two actors that are working with or have previously worked with a common third actor are more likely to activate pre-existing social ties. Further, new social ties tend to be formed around a few central actors, whereas the opposite seems to apply for the activation of pre-existing ties. The extent to which actors consider others' organizational affiliation, formal role, previous experience, and level of professionalization differs between the cases. We suggest these tie formation and activation differences can be attributed to diverging organizational contexts varying in their reliance upon self-organizing versus command-and-control approaches.

  • 3. Camenisch, Chantal
    et al.
    Brázdil, Rudolf
    Kiss, Andrea
    Pfister, Christian
    Wetter, Oliver
    Rohr, Christian
    Contino, Antonio
    Retsö, Dag
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economic History and International Relations.
    Extreme heat and drought in 1473 and their impacts in Europe in the context of the early 1470s2020In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 20, no 1, article id 19Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Droughts and heatwaves are both dangerous natural hazards with a potential significant impact on human societies. In order to understand these hazards, it is important to examine such extreme events in the past. During the years 1471 to 1474, warm and dry weather conditions are described in most parts of Europe. Until now, these extraordinary years have not been examined in depth. Moreover, in spring 1473, a great drought and heat occurred in Europe. This heatwave facilitated a fast phenological development. During the summer and the autumn, temperatures were unusually high, and extremely dry weather conditions continued. In many places, the harvest began remarkably early, and there was abundant wine of a good quality. Fruit trees even bloomed for the second time in autumn. The heat and drought had a considerable impact on the environment and also caused damage to agriculture and society, including water shortages, harvest failures and rising food prices. The weather conditions of the years from 1471 to 1474 were outstanding during the fifteenth century and the heatwave and drought, as well as impacts on environment, economy, and society in the year 1473, were comparable to-if not more severe-than those in the year 1540. Learning from past climate anomalies like the 1473 drought in Europe is important for evaluating more recent and future climate extremes under increasing anthropogenic pressure.

  • 4. Carvalho, Raquel
    et al.
    de Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Amaral, Silvana
    Diversity of cattle raising systems and its effects over forest regrowth in a core region of cattle production in the Brazilian Amazon2020In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 20, no 2, article id 44Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Roughly 60% of all deforested lands in the Brazilian Amazon are covered with pastures, putting cattle raising in evidence as a major driver of deforestation and also of forests' regrowth. Still, the role of cattle raising diversity in the landscape dynamics of this region remains poorly understood. To contribute to this discussion, we combined data from semi-structured interviews and quantitative spatially explicit methods to characterize and spatialize cattle raising systems and explore the effects of this diversity over secondary vegetation between 2004 and 2014 in Para, a hotspot of deforestation and core region of cattle production. We quantified the use of different pasture management strategies to classify small- and large-scale operations into systems with high or low impact against pastures' degradation. High-impact systems were mapped in regions with consolidated infrastructure and high accumulated deforestation, where they expanded. On the contrary, low-impact systems were more widespread and found near forest frontiers, shrinking over time. High-impact systems had less secondary vegetation, while under low-impact systems, as a result of strategies with little or no effect against degradation, the historical pattern of concentration of this cover prevailed. Better infrastructure and access to markets as well as higher accumulated deforestation are underlying conditions related to the emergence of intensification and, as it is still unclear whether intensification is indeed capable of sparing land, the expansion of intensive cattle raising systems has the potential to configure landscapes with reduced forested areas, either primary or secondary.

  • 5. Chalov, Sergey
    et al.
    Thorslund, Josefin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Kasimov, Nikolay
    Aybullatov, Denis
    Ilyicheva, Elena
    Karthe, Daniel
    Kositsky, Alexey
    Lychagin, Mikhail
    Nittrouer, Jeff
    Pavlov, Maxim
    Pietron, Jan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Shinkareva, Galina
    Tarasov, Mikhail
    Garmaev, Endon
    Akhtman, Yosef
    Jarsjö, Jerker
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    The Selenga River delta: a geochemical barrier protecting Lake Baikal waters2017In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 17, no 7, p. 2039-2053Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The protection of Lake Baikal and the planning of water management measures in the Selenga River Basin require a comprehensive understanding of the current state and functioning of the delta’s ecosystem and hydrogeochemical processes. This is particularly relevant in light of recent and expected future changes involving both the hydrology and water quality in the Lake Baikal basin causing spatiotemporal changes in water flow, morphology, and transport of sediments and metals in the Selenga River delta and thus impacting on delta barrier functions. The central part of the delta had been characterized by sediment storage, especially along the main channels, causing a continuous lift of the delta surface by about 0.75 cm/year−1. Theses morphological changes have a significant impact on hydrological conditions, with historical shifts in the bulk discharge from the left to the right parts of the delta which is distinguished by a relatively high density of wetlands. Regions with a high density of wetlands and small channels, in contrast to main channel regions, show a consistent pattern of considerable contaminant filtering and removal (between 77 and 99 % for key metals), during both high-flow and low-flow conditions. The removal is associated with a significant concentration increase (2–3 times) of these substances in the bottom sediment. In consequence, geomorphological processes, which govern the partitioning of flow between different channel systems, may therefore directly govern the barrier function of the delta.

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  • 6. Coelho, Andréa
    et al.
    Aguiar, Ana
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Brazil.
    Toledo, Peter
    Araújo, Roberto
    do Canto, Otávio
    Folhes, Ricardo
    Adami, Marcos
    Rural landscapes and agrarian spaces under soybean expansion dynamics: a case study of the Santarém region, Brazilian Amazonia2021In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 21, no 4, article id 100Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Following the boom of soybean production from 2000 to 2006 in the Santarém region of the Brazilian Amazon, the mechanized agricultural area remained stable, unlike other regions. Deforestation was controlled, but this initial expansion led to the restructuring of the agrarian space in the region. Given this scenario, we aimed to understand the mechanized agricultural expansion effects in the region by comparing the periods 1999-2007 and 2007-2015. Our hypothesis was that it impacted heterogeneous actors and land tenure categories. We combined multi-temporal land change maps derived from remote sensing to land tenure information to evaluate how land change transitions differed over time, both in public (traditional and sustainable use official settlements) and private areas. In private areas, we observed a 12% reduction in forest cover in 1999-2007 and a 2.5% reduction in 2007-2015. In sustainable use settlements, forest loss was only 3% and 2% in each period, respectively. Mechanized agriculture occupied areas of family farming (42%), secondary vegetation (20%), pasture (20%), and forest areas (18%). Family farming lost most of the area to other uses. Within settlements, the area of family farming increased by 50% at the expense of the forest area. We conclude that the rise and fall of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon hide multiple social and territorial processes. Understanding such dynamics is critical for establishing measures toward a sustainable future.

  • 7. Cumming, Graeme S.
    et al.
    Adamska, Maja
    Barnes, Michele L.
    Barnett, Jon
    Bellwood, David R.
    Cinner, Joshua E.
    Cohen, Philippa J.
    Donelson, Jennifer M.
    Fabricius, Katharina
    Grafton, R. Quentin
    Grech, Alana
    Gurney, Georgina G.
    Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove
    Hoey, Andrew S.
    Hoogenboom, Mia O.
    Lau, Jacqueline
    Lovelock, Catherine E.
    Lowe, Ryan
    Miller, David J.
    Morrison, Tiffany H.
    Mumby, Peter J.
    Nakata, Martin
    Pandolfi, John M.
    Peterson, Garry D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Pratchett, Morgan S.
    Ravasi, Timothy
    Riginos, Cynthia
    Rummer, Jodie L.
    Schaffelke, Britta
    Wernberg, Thomas
    Wilson, Shaun K.
    Research priorities for the sustainability of coral-rich western Pacific seascapes2023In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 23, no 2, article id 66Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Nearly a billion people depend on tropical seascapes. The need to ensure sustainable use of these vital areas is recognised, as one of 17 policy commitments made by world leaders, in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 (‘Life below Water’) of the United Nations. SDG 14 seeks to secure marine sustainability by 2030. In a time of increasing social-ecological unpredictability and risk, scientists and policymakers working towards SDG 14 in the Asia–Pacific region need to know: (1) How are seascapes changing? (2) What can global society do about these changes? and (3) How can science and society together achieve sustainable seascape futures? Through a horizon scan, we identified nine emerging research priorities that clarify potential research contributions to marine sustainability in locations with high coral reef abundance. They include research on seascape geological and biological evolution and adaptation; elucidating drivers and mechanisms of change; understanding how seascape functions and services are produced, and how people depend on them; costs, benefits, and trade-offs to people in changing seascapes; improving seascape technologies and practices; learning to govern and manage seascapes for all; sustainable use, justice, and human well-being; bridging communities and epistemologies for innovative, equitable, and scale-crossing solutions; and informing resilient seascape futures through modelling and synthesis. Researchers can contribute to the sustainability of tropical seascapes by co-developing transdisciplinary understandings of people and ecosystems, emphasising the importance of equity and justice, and improving knowledge of key cross-scale and cross-level processes, feedbacks, and thresholds. 

  • 8.
    Elsler, Laura G.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Haight Frawley, Timothy
    Britten, Gregory L.
    Crowder, Larry B.
    DuBois, Timothy C.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Radosavljevic, Sonja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gilly, William F.
    Crépin, Anne-Sophie
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Social relationship dynamics mediate climate impacts on income inequality: evidence from the Mexican Humboldt squid fishery2021In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 21, no 2, article id 35Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Small-scale fisheries are critically important for livelihoods around the world, particularly in tropical regions. However, climate variability and anthropogenic climate change may seriously impact small-scale fisheries by altering the abundance and distribution of target species. Social relationships between fishery users, such as fish traders, can determine how each individual responds and is affected by changes in fisheries. These informal cooperative and competitive relationships provide access, support, and incentives for fishing and affect the distribution of benefits. Yet, individuals' actions and impacts on individuals are often the primary focus of the economic analyses informing small-scale fisheries' formal management. This focus dismisses relevant social relationships. We argue that this leads to a disconnect between reality and its model representation used in formal management, which may reduce formal fisheries management's efficiency and efficacy and potentially trigger adverse consequences. Here, we examine this argument by comparing the predictions of a simple bioeconomic fishery model with those of a social-ecological model that incorporates the dynamics of cooperative relationships between fish traders. We illustrate model outcomes using an empirical case study in the Mexican Humboldt squid fishery. We find that (1) the social-ecological model with relationship dynamics substantially improves accuracy in predicting observed fishery variables to the simple bioeconomic model. (2) Income inequality outcomes are associated with changes in cooperative trade relationships. When environmental temperature is included in the model as a driver of species production dynamics, we find that climate-driven temperature variability drives a decline in catch that, in turn, reduce fishers' income. We observe an offset of this loss in income by including cooperative relationships between fish traders (oligopoly) in the model. These relationships break down following species distribution changes and result in an increase in prices fishers receive. Finally, (3) our social-ecological model simulations show that the current fishery development program, which seeks to increase fishers' income through an increase in domestic market demand, is supported by predictions from the simple bioeconomic model, may increase income inequality between fishers and traders. Our findings highlight the real and urgent need to re-think fisheries management models in the context of small-scale fisheries and climate change worldwide to encompass social relationship dynamics.

  • 9.
    Fischer, Sandra
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Pietroń, Jan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. University of New Hampshire, USA.
    Thorslund, Josefin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Jarsjö, Jerker
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Present to future sediment transport of the Brahmaputra River: reducing uncertainty in predictions and management2017In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 17, no 2, p. 515-526Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Brahmaputra River in South Asia carries one of the world's highest sediment loads, and the sediment transport dynamics strongly affect the region's ecology and agriculture. However, present understanding of sediment conditions and dynamics is hindered by limited access to hydrological and geomorphological data, which impacts predictive models needed in management. We here synthesize reported peer-reviewed data relevant to sediment transport and perform a sensitivity analysis to identify sensitive and uncertain parameters, using the one-dimensional model HEC-RAS, considering both present and future climatic conditions. Results showed that there is considerable uncertainty in openly available estimates (260-720 Mt yr(-1)) of the annual sediment load for the Brahmaputra River at its downstream Bahadurabad gauging station (Bangladesh). This may aggravate scientific impact studies of planned power plant and reservoir construction in the region, as well as more general effects of ongoing land use change and climate change. We found that data scarcity on sediment grain size distribution, water discharge, and Manning's roughness coefficient had the strongest controls on the modelled sediment load. However, despite uncertainty in absolute loads, we showed that predicted relative changes, including a future increase in sediment load by about 40 % at Bahadurabad by 2075-2100, were consistent across multiple model simulations. Nevertheless, for the future scenarios we found that parameter uncertainty almost doubled for water discharge and river geometry, highlighting that improved information on these parameters could greatly advance the abilities to predict and manage current and future sediment dynamics in the Brahmaputra river basin.

  • 10. Frolova, Natalia L.
    et al.
    Belyakova, Pelagiya A.
    Grigoriev, Vadim Yu.
    Sazonov, Alexey A.
    Zotov, Leonid V.
    Jarsjö, Jerker
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Runoff fluctuations in the Selenga River Basin2017In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 17, no 7, p. 1965-1976Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Selenga River has historically provided 50% of the total freshwater water input to the Lake Baikal, transporting substances and pollutants that can considerably impact the unique lake ecosystem. In the context of on-going regional to global change, we here aim at identifying and understanding mechanisms behind spatial and temporal variability and trends in the flow of the Selenga River and its tributaries, based on hydrological and meteorological station data (since the 1930s), remote sensing, and statistical analyses. Results show that the flow of the Selenga River exhibits cycles with phases of high flows lasting 12 to 17 years and phases of low flows that historically lasted for about 7 years. However, despite an asynchronous behavior between right-bank tributaries and left-bank tributaries, the flow of the Selenga River near its delta at Lake Baikal has now been low (30% below the 1934-1975 average) for as long as 20 years, due to reduced input from precipitation, particularly during the summer season. Observed decreases in annual maximum hourly flows and decreases in annual minimum 30-day flows are consistent with increasing activation of the groundwater system due to thawing permafrost, and higher winter temperatures that support increased winter flows by preventing rivers to freeze from top to bottom. These recent and relatively large changes have implications for regional water planning and management, including the planned large-scale hydropower expansion in the upper part of the Selenga River Basin.

  • 11. Goffner, Deborah
    et al.
    Sinare, Hanna
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Gordon, Line J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    The Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel Initiative as an opportunity to enhance resilience in Sahelian landscapes and livelihoods2019In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 19, no 5, p. 1417-1428Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Over the past 50years, a large number of development initiatives have addressed the diverse social and ecological challenges in the Sahel, often focusing on a single entry point or action, resulting in only a limited degree of success. Within the last decade, the international development discourse has evolved to incorporate resilience thinking as a way to address more complex challenges. However, concrete examples as to how to operationalize resilience thinking are lacking. The Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel Initiative (GGW), a pan-African program with a strong reforestation focus, is the latest and most ambitious of these development programs to date. The GGW represents an ideal opportunity to apply resilience thinking at a large scale, but in order to do so, it must intelligently gather and centralize pre-existing interdisciplinary knowledge, generate new knowledge, and integrate knowledge systems to appropriately navigate future uncertainties of the diverse social-ecological systems along its path. Herein, after a brief description of large-scale reforestation history in the Sahara and Sahel and the conceptual evolution of the GGW, we propose a transdisciplinary research framework with resilience thinking at its core. It includes analysis of complex social-ecological systems, their temporal and spatial cross-scale interactions, and outcomes focused on the supply of abundant, diverse, equitable, and durable ecosystem services to support livelihoods in the region. If the research areas that comprise the framework were to be properly addressed, they could conceivably guide GGW actions in a way that would contribute to desirable future pathways.

  • 12. Jansson, Torbjörn
    et al.
    Andersen, Hans E.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. University of Helsinki, Finland.
    Hasler, Berit
    Höglind, Lisa
    Choi, Hyungsik
    Baltic Sea eutrophication status is not improved by the first pillar of the European Union Common Agricultural Policy2019In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 19, no 8, p. 2465-2476Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Agriculture is an important source of nitrogen and phosphorous loads to the Baltic Sea. We study how the European Union's (EU) Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), and in particular how its first pillar, containing most of the budget and the decoupled farm payments, affects eutrophication. To aid our study, we use three simulation models, covering the agricultural sector in the EU, a hydrological nutrient flow model and a model of eutrophication in the Baltic Sea. We compute changes in key eutrophication indicators in a business-as-usual baseline and in a hypothetical situation where the first pillar of the CAP, containing the direct payments, greening and accompanying measures, is not present. Comparing the outcomes, we find that in the scenario without the first pillar, production and agricultural land use is lower, while yields and fertiliser use per hectare are higher, causing less nitrogen and phosphorous loads (0.5 to 4% depending on the basin) and less eutrophication in the Baltic Sea as net effect. We therefore conclude that the policies of the first pillar of the CAP contribute to increased eutrophication in the Baltic Sea.

  • 13.
    Jarsjö, Jerker
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Chalov, Sergey R.
    Pietroń, Jan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Alekseenko, Alexey V.
    Thorslund, Josefin
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Patterns of soil contamination, erosion and river loading of metals in a gold mining region of northern Mongolia2017In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 17, no 7, p. 1991-2005Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Mining has become one of the main causes of increased heavy metal loading of river systems throughout the world. There is however an evident gap between assessments of soil contamination and metal release at the mined sites and estimates of river pollution. The present work focuses on Zaamar Goldfield, which is one of the largest placer gold mines in the world, located along the Tuul River, Mongolia, which ultimately drains into Lake Baikal, Russia. It combines field observations in the river basin with soil erosion modelling and aims at quantifying the contribution from natural erosion of metal-rich soil to observed increases in mass flows of metals along the Tuul River. Results show that the sediment delivery from the mining area to the Tuul River is considerably higher than the possible contribution from natural soil erosion. This is primarily due to excessive mining-related water use creating turbid wastewaters, disturbed filtering functions of deposition areas (natural sediment traps) close to the river and disturbances from infrastructures such as roads. Furthermore, relative to background levels, soils within Zaamar Goldfield contained elevated concentrations of As, Sr, Mn, V, Ni, Cu and Cr. The enhanced soil loss caused by mining-related activities can also explain observed, considerable increases in mass flows of metals in the Tuul River. The present example from Tuul River may provide useful new insights regarding the erosion and geomorphic evolution of mined areas, as well as the associated delivery of metals into stream networks.

  • 14. Jimenez, Marcela
    et al.
    Perez-Belmont, Patricia
    Schewenius, Maria
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Gävle, Sweden.
    Lerner, Amy M.
    Mazari-Hiriart, Marisa
    Assessing the historical adaptive cycles of an urban social-ecological system and its potential future resilience: the case of Xochimilco, Mexico City2020In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 20, no 1, article id UNSP 7Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    As the bulk of the world's population becomes urban, maintaining urban ecosystem services for environmental and social well-being in cities is crucial. According to resilience theory, maintaining such services requires for a complex adaptive systems perspective that helps in identifying key elements and dynamics behind cross-scale social-ecological interactions. In this context, the objective of this article is to use a resilience lens to problematize the imminent loss of an urban wetland using the adaptive cycle model as a heuristic tool. Our case study focuses on the Xochimilco wetland, located in the southern periphery of Mexico City. Xochimilco is characterized by the presence of a complex system of raised bed wetland agriculture (the chinampa system), which was established over 1000 years ago; currently, despite having a recognized cultural and environmental value, it is threatened by increasing urban sprawl, over-exploitation of the aquifer, and water contamination. By conducting a historical analysis of the Xochimilco social-ecological system, we assess how it has gone through phases of the adaptive cycle. As a result, we identify critical elements of the system's historically maintained resilience and main drivers of system change. From such findings, we present some insights on the possibilities of maintaining the system's resilience and guidance for future management strategies for the Xochimilco wetland. Lastly, we reflect on the scope and limitations of using a resilience-based approach and an adaptive cycle analysis for addressing urban sustainability problems, especially in cities in the Global South.

  • 15. Kriegl, Michael
    et al.
    Kluger, Lotta Clara
    Gorris, Philipp
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Osnabrueck, Germany.
    Kochalski, Sophia
    Coastal livelihood resilience to abrupt environmental change: the role of social capital in a Peruvian bay2022In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 22, no 3, article id 103Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Abrupt environmental change, such as sudden shifts in temperature or salinity, can severely alter the functioning of marine ecosystems and cause dramatic impacts on the associated social systems. Resource users, who rely on ecosystem services provided by the ocean, are particularly vulnerable to such drastic events. Functioning social relationships (social capital) have recently been suggested as a key driver for recovery after disaster. Here, we study how small-scale fishers who conduct sea-ranching of the Peruvian bay scallop Argopecten purpuratus in Northern Peru dealt with the literal wipe-out of their target resources caused by the Coastal El Niño (CEN) of 2017 that heavily impacted the entire region. Adopting an ego-network approach complemented by qualitative information from expert interviews, we investigated how resource users drew on their social networks to cope with the disaster. Results suggested a significant positive correlation between more desirable post-disaster trajectories and the number of helpful social links of scallop farmer associations. Disentangling the temporal aspect of this pattern, we found that social capital established before the disaster was driving this correlation. Importantly, both economic and non-economic links were contributing to the observed patterns. This study emphasizes the importance of social capital for dealing with the effects of disasters following natural events. Having extensive social networks increases the capacity to mobilize resources and information when needed and is associated with more efficient recovery after abrupt environmental change. Mechanisms to foster and enhance social capital are key for preventive management actions aiming to build resilience within vulnerable communities facing accelerating global change.

  • 16. Lemos, Cassia M. G.
    et al.
    Andrade, Pedro R.
    Rodrigues, Ricardo R.
    Hissa, Leticia
    Aguiar, Ana P. D.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Brazilian Institute of Space Research (INPE), Brazil.
    Combining regional to local restoration goals in the Brazilian Atlantic forest2021In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 21, no 3, article id 68Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    To achieve regional and international large-scale restoration goals with minimum costs, several restoration commitments rely on natural regeneration, a passive and inexpensive strategy. However, natural regeneration potential may vary within the landscape, mainly due to its historical context. In this work, we use spatially explicit restoration scenarios to explore how and where, within a given region, multiple restoration commitments could be combined to achieve cost-effectiveness outcomes. Our goal is to facilitate the elaboration of forest restoration plans at the regional level, taking into consideration the costs for active and passive restoration methods. The approach includes (1) a statistical analysis to estimate the natural regeneration potential for a given area based on alternative sets of biophysical, land cover, and/or socioeconomic factors and (2) the use of a land change allocation model to explore the cost-effectiveness of combining multiple restoration commitments in a given area through alternative scenarios. We test our approach in a strategic region in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Biome, the Paraiba Valley in São Paulo State. Using the available data for 2011, calibrated for 2015, we build alternative scenarios for allocating natural regeneration until 2025. Our models indicate that the natural regeneration potential of the region is actually very low, and the cost-effectiveness outcomes are similar for all scenarios. We believe our approach can be used to support the regional-level decision-making about the implementation of multiple commitments aiming at the same target area. It can also be combined with other approaches for more refined analysis (e.g., optimization models).

  • 17.
    Li, Bei-Bei
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Human Geography. Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, China.
    Jansson, Ulf
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Human Geography.
    Ye, Yu
    Widgren, Mats
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Human Geography.
    The spatial and temporal change of cropland in the Scandinavian Peninsula during 1875–19992013In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 13, no 6, p. 1325-1336Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Land use and land cover change (LUCC) has emerged as an important issue of global change with significant influences on the geochemical cycle and regional climate change. Understanding the historical changes of land use and analyzing the environmental effects of LUCC make such reconstructions important. Based on historical statistics, this article reconstructs cropland area at the municipality level (härad/kommun) in the Scandinavian Peninsula during 1875–1999. The total acreage of cropland increased 36.84 % during 1875–1930, kept stable during 1930–1950, and decreased 14.25 % during 1950–1999. The croplands of Sweden and Norway both increased before 1950 and changed in different ways during 1950–1999 when the cropland decreased by 19.79 % in Sweden but increased by 9.63 % in Norway. The counties in the south Scandinavian Peninsula owned most of the cropland, with a cropland proportion of over 20 %, and experienced relatively obvious cropland changes. Growth centers with a rate of increase of over 5 % during 1875–1910 were found in Skåne, Stockholm, the Uppsala counties in Sweden, and the area around Oslo county in Norway. The general cropland distribution showed almost no change during this period, which mainly reflects the suitability of the natural conditions for agriculture. Multi-social factors co-impacted land use activities and induced temporal and spatial variations of the cropland. These factors included food supply, world trade, wars, agriculture policies, the economic and political environment, urbanization, and national differences. Compared with the widely used global land use dataset Historical Database of the Global Environment (HYDE), this study shows different cropland change curves before 1950. This article is a case study showing that the hindcasting model of the HYDE dataset has difficulty estimating multi-determined cropland change in the Scandinavian Peninsula, and the empirical study contributes to the improvement of the accuracy of historical land use data at the regional level.

  • 18. Lundmark, Carina
    et al.
    Andersson, Klas
    Sandström, Annica
    Laikre, Linda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Zoology.
    Effectiveness of short-term knowledge communication on Baltic Sea marine genetic biodiversity to public managers2017In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 17, no 3, p. 841-849Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The aim of this study is to assess the impact of two forms of short-term knowledge communication-lectures and group deliberations-on public managers' policy beliefs regarding genetic biodiversity in the Baltic Sea. Genetic biodiversity is a key component of biological variation, but despite scientific knowledge and far-reaching political goals, genetic biodiversity remains neglected in marine management. Previous research highlights lack of knowledge among managers as one explanation to the implementation deficit. This multidisciplinary study builds on the identified need for an improved knowledge transfer between science and ongoing management. A basic knowledge package on genetic biodiversity in the Baltic Sea was presented as either a lecture or a deliberative group discussion to two separate samples of public managers who are involved in Baltic Sea and other biodiversity management at the regional level in Sweden. The empirical findings show that the communicated information has an impact on the public managers' beliefs on genetic biodiversity of the Baltic Sea. Lectures seem more efficient to transfer knowledge on this theme. Those who received information through a lecture strengthen their confidence in area protection as a management tool to conserve genetic diversity. They were also more convinced of the obligation of authorities at national and regional level to take on larger responsibility for genetic conservation than those managers who participated in a deliberative discussion.

  • 19.
    Martin, Romina
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Radosavljevic, Sonja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Short-term decisions in lake restoration have long-term consequences for water quality2020In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 20, no 3, article id 101Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Ecological regime shifts from clear to turbid water states in shallow temperate lakes are quite well-investigated phenomena but critical time lags from human interaction with the lake and restoration activities are much less understood. This is a complex challenge for institutions who manage lakes but are usually less familiar with non-linear dynamics, slow and fast influences on water quality and how to manage those from a social-ecological perspective. We extend a well-known minimal model of shallow lake regime shifts to enable simulations over time with short- and long-term management measures (nutrient reduction, trawling, planting of aquatic vegetation). While we explore the mathematical conditions for ecological bistability, we also identify the necessary and sufficient extent of measures to restore the clear water state. Restoration scenarios evaluated by trajectories in the state space demonstrate the increased effectiveness from combined measures even when considering countereffective activities such as pike fishing. But, single measures alone may delay or even miss the overall restoration target. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of understanding transient dynamics where stable state analyses alone remain elusive about alternative ways to interact with bistability. We conclude that successful management of bistable systems, and particularly shallow temperate lakes, needs careful balancing between short-term improvements and long-term influence on the systems state.

  • 20.
    McCrackin, Michelle L.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Hong, Bongghi
    Howarth, Robert W.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. University of Helsinki, Finland.
    Savchuck, Oleg P.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Svanbäck, Annika
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Swaney, Dennis P.
    Opportunities to reduce nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea by improving manure use efficiency in agriculture2018In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 18, no 6, p. 1843-1854Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    While progress has been made in reducing external nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea, further actions are needed to meet the goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), especially for the Baltic Proper, Gulf of Finland, and Gulf of Riga sub-basins. We used the net anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs (NANI and NAPI, respectively) nutrient accounting approach to construct three scenarios of reduced NANI-NAPI. Reductions assumed that manure nutrients were redistributed from areas with intense animal production to areas that focus on crop production and would otherwise import synthetic and mineral fertilizers. We also used the Simple as Necessary Baltic Long Term Large Scale (SANBALTS) model to compare eutrophication conditions for the scenarios to current and BSAP-target conditions. The scenarios suggest that reducing NANI-NAPI by redistributing manure nutrients, together with improving agronomic practices, could meet 54–82% of the N reductions targets (28–43 kt N reduction) and 38–64% P reduction targets (4–6.6 kt P reduction), depending on scenario. SANBALTS output showed that even partial fulfillment of nutrient reduction targets could have ameliorating effects on eutrophication conditions. Meeting BSAP targets will require addressing additional sources, such as sewage. A common approach to apportioning sources to external nutrients loads could enable further assessment of the feasibility of eutrophication management targets.

  • 21. Michler, Lena M.
    et al.
    Kaczensky, Petra
    Oyunsaikhan, Ganbaatar
    Bartzke, Gundula S.
    Devineau, Olivier
    Treydte, Anna C.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    To move or not to move—factors influencing small-scale herder and livestock movements in the Dzungarian Gobi, Mongolia2023In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 23, no 4, article id 131Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In Mongolia, where nomadic pastoralism is still practiced by around one-third of the population, increasing livestock numbers, socio-economic constraints and climate change raise concerns over rangeland health. Little empirical evidence explains what triggers camp moves of pastoralists in the Dzungarian Gobi in Mongolia, which factors influence grazing mobility around camps, and how altitudinal migration benefits small livestock. We combined GPS tracking data of 19 small livestock herds monitored from September 2018 to April 2020 with remotely sensed climate and environmental data. We used general linear-mixed models to analyse variables influencing camp use duration and daily mobility patterns. To understand the importance of the altitudinal migration, we compared climatic conditions along the elevation gradient and looked at seasonal body weight changes of small livestock. We found that available plant biomass and season best explained camp use duration. Daily walking distance and maximum distance from camp increased with camp use duration. Pasture time increased with increasing biomass and rising temperatures. We conclude that herders in the Dzungarian Gobi have optimized pasture use by reacting to changes in biomass availability at landscape and local scale, and by embracing altitudinal migration. Flexibility in grazing mobility seems to have enabled local herder communities to practise sustainable pasture use. Maintaining this mobility will most likely be the best strategy to deal with environmental change under the current climate change scenarios.

  • 22.
    Nykvist, Björn
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Borgström, Sara
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Sweden.
    Boyd, Emily
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies (LUCSUS), Sweden.
    Assessing the adaptive capacity of multi-level water governance: ecosystem services under climate change in Mälardalen region, Sweden2017In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 17, no 8, p. 2359-2371Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Adaptive and multi-level governance is often called for in order to improve the management of complex issues such as the provision of natural resources and ecosystem services. In this case study, we analyse the contemporary multi-level governance system that manages water resources and its ecosystem services in a fresh water lake in Sweden. We assess the relative importance and barriers of three commonly highlighted components of adaptive governance: feeding ecological knowledge into the governance system, use of ecological knowledge to continuously adapt the governance system, and self-organisation by flexible institutions acting across multiple levels. Findings reveal that the trickiest aspect of adaptive governance capacity to institutionalise is the iterative nature of feedbacks and learning over time, and that barriers to the spread of knowledge on social-ecological complexity through the governance systems are partly political, partly complexity itself, and partly a more easily resolved lack of coordination. We call for caution in trusting crisis management to build more long-lasting adaptive capacity, and we conclude that a process of institutionalising adaptive capacity is inherently contingent on political process putting issues on the agenda.

  • 23. Silva Von Randow, Rita Cassia
    et al.
    Rodriguez, Daniel Andrés
    Tomasella, Javier
    Dutra Aguiar, Ana Paula
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Brazil.
    Kruijt, Bart
    Kabat, Pavel
    Response of the river discharge in the Tocantins River Basin, Brazil, to environmental changes and the associated effects on the energy potential2019In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 19, no 1, p. 193-204Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change is expected to impact the hydrological regime worldwide, and land use and land cover change may alter the effects of the former in some cases. Secondary growth in deforested and abandoned areas is one of the main consequences of land use and cover changes in Amazonia. Among land uses, the effects of the secondary growth in water availability in large scale basins are not well understood. This work analyzes the potential effects of secondary growth under climate and land use change on water availability and hydropower in the Tocantins basin, in the Legal Amazon region of Brazil, using the MHD-INPE hydrological model driven by different climate scenarios and two future socioeconomic-based potential land use scenarios. The model projects decrease on discharge under climate change scenarios, which further cause the simulated hydropower energy potential to decrease significantly. When only deforestation scenarios are included, the effects of climate change are weakened, but when secondary growth is also considered, the effects of climate change are enhanced. Results suggest that different aspects of environmental change, such as secondary growth, may affect water production and the sectors depending on it.

  • 24.
    Spijkers, Jessica
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Boonstra, Wiebren J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Environmental change and social conflict: the northeast Atlantic mackerel dispute2017In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 17, no 6, p. 1835-1851Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A recurrent critique of the proposition of a causal relation between environmental change and social conflict is that it fails to account for the complexities and dynamics of processes of social-ecological change. In this article, we open the black box of contextual factors that influence the causal pathway from environmental change to social conflict. Firstly, we argue for the consideration of three social factors that influence that pathway: (a) institutions, (b) power, and (c) knowledge. Taking a deductive approach, we ascertain their causal importance in the case of the mackerel dispute, an interstate conflict that unfolded after the abrupt and rapid change in distribution of the northeast Atlantic mackerel stock after 2007. We analyze the historical development of the mackerel dispute through process tracing and demonstrate the importance and causal role of the three factors. Secondly, based on our assessment, we argue to increase the diversity of the scope conditions relevant for the environmental change-social conflict nexus. We propose to consider a wider variety of conflicts as outcome of environmental change, high-income regions as an arena for those conflicts, and a wider variety of environmental change, such as alterations in abundance in the context of climate change. Lastly, we discuss how future research on this topic can handle the wider scope conditions and greater case variability.

  • 25.
    Thorslund, Josefin
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Jarsjö, Jerker
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Wällstedt, Teresia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM).
    Mörth, Carl Magnus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Lychagin, Mikhail Yu.
    Chalov, Sergey R.
    Speciation and hydrological transport of metals in non-acidic river systems of the Lake Baikal basin: Field data and model predictions2017In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 17, no 7, p. 2007-2021Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The speciation of metals in aqueous systems is central to understanding their mobility, bioavailability, toxicity and fate. Although several geochemical speciation models exist for metals, the equilibrium conditions assumed by many of them may not prevail in field-scale hydrological systems with flowing water. Furthermore, the dominant processes and/or process rates in non-acidic systems might differ from well-studied acidic systems. We here aim to increase knowledge on geochemical processes controlling speciation and transport of metals under non-acidic river conditions. Specifically, we evaluate the predictive capacity of a speciation model to novel measurements of multiple metals and their partitioning, under high-pH conditions in mining zones within the Lake Baikal basin. The mining zones are potential hotspots for increasing metal loads to downstream river systems. Metals released from such upstream regions may be transported all the way to Lake Baikal, where increasing metal contamination of sediments and biota has been reported. Our results show clear agreement between speciation predictions and field measurements of Fe, V, Pb and Zn, suggesting that the partitioning of these metals mainly was governed by equilibrium geochemistry under the studied conditions. Systematic over-predictions of dissolved Cr, Cu and Mo by the model were observed, which might be corrected by improving the adsorption database for hydroxyapatite because that mineral likely controls the solubility of these metals. Additionally, metal complexation by dissolved organic matter is a key parameter that needs continued monitoring in the Lake Baikal basin because dependable predictions could not be made without considering its variability. Finally, our investigation indicates that further model development is needed for accurate As speciation predictions under non-acidic conditions, which is crucial for improved health risk assessments on this contaminant.

  • 26. Wei, Xueqiong
    et al.
    Ye, Yu
    Zhang, Qian
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Human Geography.
    Fang, Xiuqi
    Reconstruction of cropland change over the past 300 years in the Jing-Jin-Ji area, China2016In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 16, no 7, p. 2097-2109Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) has strongly influenced the global and regional climate and environmental change, especially over the last three centuries. Accurate reconstruction of historical LUCC is a key step for assessing the impact of LUCC on global environmental change. To fill in the gap of regional historical cropland reconstruction in North China and achieve a better understanding of the historical cropland change process, in this paper we reconstruct cropland change at the county level over the past 300 years in the Jing-Jin-Ji (Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei) area, China. The reconstruction is based on sources including gazetteers, statistics and survey documents, and the methods are composed of data calibration, data interpolation and correlation analysis of data. The results show that the cropland change in the Jing-Jin-Ji area fluctuated, which can be classified into five stages: rapid increase in 1677–1755 and 1916–1950, slight growth in 1755–1884, gentle decline in 1884–1916 and rapid decrease after 1950. Two peak values appeared in 1884 and 1950. The spatial distribution of cropland in the Jing-Jin-Ji area kept a steady expansion and the majority of cropland concentrated on the plain before 1911. After this, the spatial distribution of cropland became more even and there was a rapid increase in the eastern coastal region and the northern hilly region. After 1985, the Jing-Jin-Ji area has experienced rapid urbanization and cultivation ratios in most counties declined, especially in Beijing municipality. Our dataset of the cropland area at the county level can contribute to improving the precision of the global and national land-use and land-cover datasets.

  • 27. Zandersen, Marianne
    et al.
    Hyytiäinen, Kari
    Meier, H. E. Markus
    Tomczak, Maciej T.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Bauer, Barbara
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
    Haapasaari, Päivi
    Olesen, Jørgen Eivind
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. University of Helsinki, Finland.
    Refsgaard, Jens Christian
    Fridell, Erik
    Pihlainen, Sampo
    Le Tissier, Martin D.A.
    Kosenius, Anna-Kaisa
    van Vuuren, Detlef
    Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems2019In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 19, no 4, p. 1073-1086Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Long-term scenario analyses can be powerful tools to explore plausible futures of human development under changing environmental, social, and economic conditions and to evaluate implications of different approaches to reduce pollution and resource overuse. Vulnerable ecosystems like the Baltic Sea in North-Eastern Europe tend to be under pressure from multiple, interacting anthropogenic drivers both related to the local scale (e.g. land -use change) and the global scale (e.g. climate change).There is currently a lack of scenarios supporting policy-making that systematically explore how global and regional developments could concurrently impact the Baltic Sea region. Here, we present five narratives for future development in the Baltic Sea region, consistent with the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate research. We focus on agriculture, wastewater treatment, fisheries, shipping, and atmospheric deposition, which all represent major pressures on the Baltic Sea. While we find strong links between the global pathways and regional pressures, we also conclude that each pathway may very well be the host of different sectoral developments, which in turn may have different impacts on the ecosystem state. The extended SSP narratives for the Baltic Sea region are intended as a description of sectoral developments at regional scale that enable detailed scenario analysis and discussions across different sectors and disciplines, but within a common context. In addition, the extended SSPs can readily be combined with climate pathways for integrated scenario analysis of regional environmental problems.

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