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  • 1. Maldonado, A. D.
    et al.
    Uusitalo, L.
    Tucker, A.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Aguilera, P. A.
    Salmerón, A.
    Prediction of a complex system with few data: Evaluation of the effect of model structure and amount of data with dynamic bayesian network models2019In: Environmental Modelling & Software, ISSN 1364-8152, E-ISSN 1873-6726, Vol. 118, p. 281-297Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A major challenge in environmental modeling is to identify structural changes in the ecosystem across time, i.e., changes in the underlying process that generates the data. In this paper, we analyze the Baltic Sea food web in order to 1) examine potential unobserved processes that could affect the ecosystem and 2) make predictions on some variables of interest. To do so, dynamic Bayesian networks with different setups of hidden variables (HVs) were built and validated applying two techniques: rolling-origin and rolling-window. Moreover, two statistical inference approaches were compared at regime shift detection: fully Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Our results confirm that, from the predictive accuracy point of view, more data help to improve the predictions whereas the different setups of HVs did not make a critical difference in the predictions. Finally, the different HVs picked up patterns in the data, which revealed changes in different parts of the ecosystem.

  • 2. Mooij, Wolf M.
    et al.
    Brederveld, Robert J.
    de Klein, Jeroen J. M.
    DeAngelis, Don L.
    Downing, Andrea S.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Systems Ecology.
    Faber, Michiel
    Gerla, Daan J.
    Hipsey, Matthew R.
    't Hoen, Jochem
    Janse, Jan H.
    Janssen, Annette B. G.
    Jeuken, Michel
    Kooi, Bob W.
    Lischke, Betty
    Petzoldt, Thomas
    Postma, Leo
    Schep, Sebastiaan A.
    Scholten, Huub
    Teurlincx, Sven
    Thiange, Christophe
    Trolle, Dennis
    van Dam, Anne A.
    van Gerven, Luuk P. A.
    van Nes, Egbert H.
    Kuiper, Jan J.
    Serving many at once: How a database approach can create unity in dynamical ecosystem modelling2014In: Environmental Modelling & Software, ISSN 1364-8152, E-ISSN 1873-6726, Vol. 61, p. 266-273Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Simulation modelling in ecology is a field that is becoming increasingly compartmentalized. Here we propose a Database Approach To Modelling (DATM) to create unity in dynamical ecosystem modelling with differential equations. In this approach the storage of ecological knowledge is independent of the language and platform in which the model will be run. To create an instance of the model, the information in the database is translated and augmented with the language and platform specifics. This process is automated so that a new instance can be created each time the database is updated. We describe the approach using the simple Lotka-Volterra model and the complex ecosystem model for shallow lakes PCLake, which we automatically implement in the frameworks OSIRIS, GRIND for MATLAB, ACSL, R, DUFLOW and DELWAQ. A clear advantage of working in a database is the overview it provides. The simplicity of the approach only adds to its elegance.

  • 3. Mueller, Birgit
    et al.
    Bohn, Friedrich
    Dressler, Gunnar
    Groeneveld, Juergen
    Klassert, Christian
    Martin, Romina
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Germany.
    Schulze, Jule
    Weise, Hanna
    Schwarz, Nina
    Describing human decisions in agent-based models - ODD plus D, an extension of the ODD protocol2013In: Environmental Modelling & Software, ISSN 1364-8152, E-ISSN 1873-6726, Vol. 48, p. 37-48Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Representing human decisions is of fundamental importance in agent-based models. However, the rationale for choosing a particular human decision model is often not sufficiently empirically or theoretically substantiated in the model documentation. Furthermore, it is difficult to compare models because the model descriptions are often incomplete, not transparent and difficult to understand. Therefore, we expand and refine the 'ODD' (Overview, Design Concepts and Details) protocol to establish a standard for describing ABMs that includes human decision-making (ODD + D). Because the ODD protocol originates mainly from an ecological perspective, some adaptations are necessary to better capture human decision-making. We extended and rearranged the design concepts and related guiding questions to differentiate and describe decision-making, adaptation and learning of the agents in a comprehensive and clearly structured way. The ODD + D protocol also incorporates a section on 'Theoretical and Empirical Background' to encourage model designs and model assumptions that are more closely related to theory. The application of the ODD + D protocol is illustrated with a description of a social ecological ABM on water use. Although the ODD + D protocol was developed on the basis of example implementations within the socio-ecological scientific community, we believe that the ODD + D protocol may prove helpful for describing ABMs in general when human decisions are included.

  • 4. Müller, Birgit
    et al.
    Balbi, Stefano
    Buchmann, Carsten M.
    de Sousa, Luis
    Dressler, Gunnar
    Groeneveld, Jürgen
    Klassert, Christian J.
    Le, Quang Bao
    Millington, James D. A.
    Nolzen, Henning
    Parker, Dawn C.
    Polhill, J. Gary
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Schulze, Jule
    Schwarz, Nina
    Sun, Zhanli
    Taillandier, Patrick
    Weise, Hanna
    Standardised and transparent model descriptions for agent-based models: Current status and prospects2014In: Environmental Modelling & Software, ISSN 1364-8152, E-ISSN 1873-6726, Vol. 55, p. 156-163Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Agent-based models are helpful to investigate complex dynamics in coupled human natural systems. However, model assessment, model comparison and replication are hampered to a large extent by a lack of transparency and comprehensibility in model descriptions. In this article we address the question of whether an ideal standard for describing models exists. We first suggest a classification for structuring types of model descriptions. Secondly, we differentiate purposes for which model descriptions are important. Thirdly, we review the types of model descriptions and evaluate each on their utility for the purposes. Our evaluation finds that the choice of the appropriate model description type is purpose-dependent and that no single description type alone can fulfil all requirements simultaneously. However, we suggest a minimum standard of model description for good modelling practice, namely the provision of source code and an accessible natural language description, and argue for the development of a common standard.

  • 5. Polhill, J. Gary
    et al.
    Filatova, Tatiana
    Schlüter, Maja
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Voinov, Alexey
    Modelling systemic change in coupled socio-environmental systems2016In: Environmental Modelling & Software, ISSN 1364-8152, E-ISSN 1873-6726, Vol. 75, p. 318-332Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Abrupt systemic changes in ecological and socio-economic systems are a regular occurrence. While there has been much attention to studying systemic changes primarily in ecology as well as in economics, the attempts to do so for coupled socio-environmental systems are rarer. This paper bridges the gap by reviewing how models can be instrumental in exploring significant, fundamental changes in such systems. The history of modelling systemic change in various disciplines contains a range of definitions and approaches. Even so, most of these efforts share some common challenges within the modelling context. We propose a framework drawing these challenges together, and use it to discuss the articles in this thematic issue on modelling systemic change in coupled social and environmental systems. The differing approaches used highlight that modelling systemic change is an area of endeavour that would benefit from greater synergies between the various disciplines concerned with systemic change.

  • 6. Schulze, Jule
    et al.
    Martin, Romina
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Germany.
    Finger, Alexander
    Henzen, Christin
    Lindner, Martin
    Pietzsch, Katrin
    Werntze, Andreas
    Zander, Ute
    Seppelt, Ralf
    Design, implementation and test of a serious online game for exploring complex relationships of sustainable land management and human well-being2015In: Environmental Modelling & Software, ISSN 1364-8152, E-ISSN 1873-6726, Vol. 65, p. 58-66Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Land is a limited resource providing various services. Decisions on land use shape the distribution of these life support functions and thus require understanding of complex feedbacks between decisions on land use and human resource appropriation. Due to multiple nonlinear feedbacks between management, productivity, environmental quality, and human well-being, complexity is an inherent property of land systems. We present an educational game, which aims at illustrating options of sustainable land management to the interested public, students and stakeholders. The game provides the opportunity to govern a country by exploring how contrasting dimensions of sustainability (economy, environment and social conditions), can be harmonized regionally, while continuously being threatened by global trade fluctuations. The game was tested by several groups of students from high schools and universities. The feedback shows that the game is a valuable tool in environmental education initiating learning the complexity of feedbacks in land use and resources appropriation.

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